“If they think Georgia is a guarantee for them, they are insane.”

[Lunar]

I think the frontpage Politico article is a good read.  Don't be retarded, this isn't "omg Obamaz gonna win Georgia" (you know who I am talking about that will inevitably assume this) but rather an attempt to intellectually look at some of the unconventional macro conditions affecting this state and perhaps reason away some of the, what, 1.6 million Obama has spent here so far.  I think some of the facts in the following article are enlightening:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0708/12078.html

ATLANTA — In nearly every presidential cycle, candidates throw a little money at a state to try to turn it into a fresh battleground. It almost never works.

But Barack Obama believes his historic nomination gives him more of an opening to press such a strategy.

And what sets him apart from his predecessors is that he may actually have the money to attack his rival’s base on a broader scale and in a more sustained way than any candidate before him.

The process has already begun. The Illinois senator last month began airing ads and opening offices in Virginia, North Dakota, Colorado and a handful of other states that have voted Republican in recent cycles.

Obama is supplementing those high-profile moves with a potentially higher-impact investment in ground troops who can recruit volunteers, knock on doors, register voters and create a buzz around the campaign with bumper stickers and yard signs.

To appreciate the aggressiveness of Obama’s operation it’s worth taking a closer look at the jockeying in Georgia.

Democrats haven’t won this state since Bill Clinton captured it in 1992 — with a critical assist from independent candidate Ross Perot.

It’s a state where the political world today is dominated by a Republican governor, two Republican U.S. senators, and a Republican state legislature.

But the state is also home to a large African-American constituency, an influential white urban voting bloc and Bob Barr, a popular former Republican congressman who is running at the top of the Libertarian Party ticket.

Obama won the Feb. 5 Democratic primary here in a walk, capturing 66 percent of the vote to Hillary Rodham Clinton’s 31 percent.

Presumptive Republican nominee John McCain lost the Peach State primary to former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and barely held off former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney to take second place.

Within that complex political mosaic, Obama spies opportunity.

He sent his first field workers to Georgia in May 2007, according to his financial disclosure forms. They remained here, albeit in smaller numbers, even after the primary.

Last month, more than 20 paid Obama staffers were toiling away in the back conference room of a partially renovated law office in downtown Atlanta.

And now their numbers are growing as they prepare to launch a voter registration drive that could see hundreds of thousands of African-American and young voters added to the voting rolls by November.

Their job is made easier by the enthusiasm gap, which is creating impassioned pockets of Obama supporters even in GOP strongholds who can be mobilized at minimum cost. The effort could pay off in tightening polls, an even bigger donor pool and votes.

A Politico analysis of the candidates’ spending in Georgia — not including advertising — since January 2007 found that overall, McCain has spent $441,895 to Obama’s $335,671.

But half of McCain’s cash, $220,613, has gone to three people, all of whom are fundraising consultants.

In the most recent financial disclosure reports released last week, McCain lists 13 Georgia-related expenses for June, which total $46,723.

Almost all of the payments were related to a Savannah campaign stop in May. McCain hasn’t hired any full-time field staff in Georgia and he’s not running any commercials on television there.

Obama listed 22 Georgia payments in his June financial disclosure form totaling $11,503. Of them, 13 were staff payroll costs. Since June 20, he’s aired $1.6 million in positive, biographical advertisements on Georgia stations, according to Evan Tracey, founder of the Campaign Media Analysis Group.

“They are treating the money they spent in the primaries as organizational investments and relying on them to form the foundation for the general election,” said Anthony Corrado, a nonpartisan campaign finance expert.

“Rather than retooling or starting over, they are just building out from the organizational structure they began months ago in some of these states,” he added.

The McCain campaign is dismissive of their opponent’s effort to turn so many red states to blue.

“I cannot begin to analyze or make sense of the political strategy employed by the Obama campaign,” said Tucker Bounds, a McCain spokesman.

“They have paid staff in Utah and other states that are solid McCain territory. They’ve clearly made a determination that staff on the ground means that a state is in play. That’s their determination, not ours,” Bounds added.

Nick Shapiro, an Obama spokesman, counters, “The nationwide desire for change and the network of volunteers and infrastructure built up during the primaries give us an opportunity to reach voters in places President Bush won.”

Even if Obama can’t steal Georgia from the Republican column, which Democratic and Republican strategists agree is an uphill fight, he still could inflict damage on McCain by forcing him to spend precious resources to guarantee the win.

That’s what Obama did to Clinton during the critical Pennsylvania primary. She emerged victorious but broke, and Obama then used his cash advantage to capture North Carolina and close the gap enough in Indiana to all but finish her off.

“I think it is smart for them to try to keep as many states in play as possible as long as possible,” said Tad Devine, a Democratic strategist. “Why not force McCain to worry and defend territory that should be rightfully his?”

While the McCain camp is holding its nerve, some Georgia Republicans are sounding the alarm.

“They are absolutely convinced Georgia is in the bag,” said Matt Towery, a former Republican candidate and strategists whose firm, InsiderAdvantage, recently released a poll showing McCain with a razor-thin lead.

“I know this state like the back of my hand,” said Towery. “If they think Georgia is a guarantee for them, they are insane.”

Republican attorney Randy Evans is confident the big-name Republicans in the state, including Gov. Sonny Purdue, can for now adequately rebut Obama’s messages and keep McCain’s in the mix.

But that doesn’t mean he’s entirely comfortable, either.

From his seat on the State Election Board, Evans is bracing to see big jumps in Democratic registrations in the coming months as Obama’s field operation goes into overdrive.

That effort will be augmented by a separate registration drive organized by the Democratic National Committee. The DNC campaign swept through Georgia last Saturday.

In addition to new voters, Evans said election officials are predicting turnout in about a dozen precincts, mostly in the African-American community, will reach or exceed 90 percent — an unprecedented rate.

A lack of competitive down-ticket contests that can help rally the Republican base is also a concern, said Evans.

“The incentive for state representatives and state senators to beat the bushes and get their voters out is not as great, and that is a little worrisome,” he said.

Alec Pointevent, a major McCain surrogate in Georgia, is more confident. Georgians "have some walking-around sense" and they won't stray from their conservative roots, he said.

But then there is the candidacy of Barr, who was swept into Congress as part of the 1994 Republican revolution and who has since remained popular in Georgia for criticizing his old colleagues for losing their fiscal way.

“He will get a reasonable share of the vote but it will be in the single digits,” predicts Whit Ayres, a Republican polling expert deeply familiar with Georgia politics.

After two decades of toil in the state’s political trenches, former Democratic Gov. Roy Barnes mentally does the math: If Obama’s team can register 250,000 new voters and just half of them show up to vote for Obama and Barr’s Libertarian ticket peels eight percent of the vote away from McCain, “it would be revolutionary.”

[Eraserhead]

In before Phil and Duke.

[Sam Spade]

Violates JJ's second rule of elections.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Since the only question asked is can I read the article before responding, the answer to that question is, yes.

[WalterMitty]

waltermitty=insane.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

waltermitty=insane.

Move over walter.....plenty of us are joining you in the loony bin.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Nice read, but to bad GA is still strong McCain.

[Alcon]

I disagree with this article on so many levels.  I gave a knee-jerk response afterwards.

[Verily]

Well, at least the article doesn't spend three-quarters of its length harping on an enormous Barr vote from disaffected conservatives or something.

The Obama campaign's organization in Georgia is formidable. They will register a lot of new voters, and get a huge number of new voters to the polls. They will convert a fairly large number of moderates to Obama simply by virtue of one-sided advertising. The McCain campaign will do none of those, and Republican turnout there will be down on 2004. None of those are really contestable facts. But, at the same time, that's almost certainly not enough for Obama to win Georgia, so take it as you will.

[Sam Spade]

I disagree with this article on so many levels.  I gave a knee-jerk response afterwards.

My knee-jerk response would have been uglier, I suspect.  So, I just decided to quote another poster. 

[Associate Justice PiT]

I disagree with this article on so many levels.  I gave a knee-jerk response afterwards.

My knee-jerk response would have been uglier, I suspect.  So, I just decided to quote another poster. 

     Agree totally with Sam Spade.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I really like how someone thinks there's going to be 90% turnout, but only in African American precincts.

[Ronnie]

Barr getting 8 percent of the vote in Georgia?  2 percent is more like it at the most.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

After two decades of toil in the state’s political trenches, former Democratic Gov. Roy Barnes mentally does the math: If Obama’s team can register 250,000 new voters and just half of them show up to vote for Obama and Barr’s Libertarian ticket peels eight percent of the vote away from McCain, “it would be revolutionary.”

Ah. Now I understand why Barnes lost in 2002...

[Sam Spade]

Re-reading this article reminds me of another question:

What exactly is the % of newly registered voters that are registered by "groups" who actually show up in an election?

(provided, of course, they aren't dead or fictional, in which case they tend to show up at 100% levels, especially in Cook County, IL or Bernadillo County, NM - to name a couple of places)

[Lunar]

I disagree with this article on so many levels.  I gave a knee-jerk response afterwards.

That's not a knee-jerk response, actually.

[Bacon King]

I'm actually very suprised at how strongly Obama's campaign is contesting Georgia. My tiny super-Republican outer suburban county (Barrow) even has its own full-time campaign coordinator.

[MarkWarner08]

Georgia was one of the few states (maybe the only one) to trend Republican in 2006. As Michael Barone  notes in his Alamanac, Republicans need not gerrymander the state in their favor  because demographic trends are already on their side. There's really no reason why Obama should be actively contesting this state.

[Хahar 🤔]

LOL.

[Sam Spade]

Georgia was one of the few states (maybe the only one) to trend Republican in 2006. As Michael Barone  notes in his Alamanac, Republicans need not gerrymander the state in their favor  because demographic trends are already on their side. There's really no reason why Obama should be actively contesting this state.

u don't believe...

[Lunar]

Georgia was one of the few states (maybe the only one) to trend Republican in 2006. As Michael Barone  notes in his Alamanac, Republicans need not gerrymander the state in their favor  because demographic trends are already on their side. There's really no reason why Obama should be actively contesting this state.

Plouffe, Obama's number guy, is pretty clever though.  He was predicting North Carolina as the defining state before Super Tuesday and arranging deals with the Puerto Rican government way back before Hillary's people even realized it was a delegate game.

I just posted a thread about declarations exactly like this, I have a serious problem with them.

[Bacon King]

Georgia was one of the few states (maybe the only one) to trend Republican in 2006.

lol wut?

If you're talking about statewide elections, the Republican "trend" was just everyone in 2002 getting an incumbency boost. If you're talking about Congressional races, the "trend" was just the effects of Republican redistricting (which in the end didn't even get Burns back in).

Not saying that Obama has much of a chance or anything, but you can't just point at 2006 and say "demographic trend!!" when that's not even what happened then.

[Sam Spade]

Plouffe, Obama's number guy, is pretty clever though.  He was predicting North Carolina as the defining state before Super Tuesday

Trying to make a state where the dynamics and party registration should translate into a 10%-15% Obama win the "defining state" is smart.  I don't know whether it involves any predictive abilities, however.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That was certainly successful...

[Lunar]

I just am uncomfortable with declarations that Obama is making a mistake spending millions in Georgia that cannot explain what he's doing in the first place.

[MarkWarner08]

Georgia was one of the few states (maybe the only one) to trend Republican in 2006.

lol wut?

If you're talking about statewide elections, the Republican "trend" was just everyone in 2002 getting an incumbency boost. If you're talking about Congressional races, the "trend" was just the effects of Republican redistricting (which in the end didn't even get Burns back in).

Not saying that Obama has much of a chance or anything, but you can't just point at 2006 and say "demographic trend!!" when that's not even what happened then.

Republicans gained State House and State Senate seats in 2006. For the first time since Reconstruction, they won the Lt. Governorship and they swept every other major office except AG. The demographic trends I'm referring to are the growing Republican strength on the suburbs, the GOP's expaning lead in Metro Atlanta the rest of the state.


Just look at the Democratic bench in Georgia. It's pathetic. In 2004 and now in 2008, the Democrats couldn't find any credible candidates to run for potentially 'vulnerable' GOP Senate seats. Marshall and Barrow, who probably would've run for Governor or Senator in the Georgia of the 1980s, are now probably stuck in their House seats.

Georgia was one of the last Southern states to remain resistant to the GOP. Now its finally flipped. Perhaps higher AA turnout will help Obama to a 46%-47% showing. Barring a fundamental shift in the electorate, Democrats will remain relegated to minority party status for the foreseeable future.