MO-06/Survey USA: Sam Graves' lead over Kay Barnes shrinks

[JohnnyLongtorso]

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=67f667c9-27da-4620-bc29-084aa2e7f422

Sam Graves (R) - 48
Kay Barnes (D) - 44

Previous poll (from, I believe, May?) had Graves up by 49-39. Perhaps this will end up being more competitive than MO-09 after all (pending the primary next week).

[MarkWarner08]

This race won't be settled by a dearth of resources on either side. If the district had a greater take of the KC area (and not its more conservative suburbs), Barnes might be leading right now. I tend to be pessimistic about Democrats' chances of reclaiming rural seats like this that they lost in the early 2000s.

Like most in most other close House races, up-ballot conditions could determine the outcome.

[Mr.Phips]

This race won't be settled by a dearth of resources on either side. If the district had a greater take of the KC area (and not its more conservative suburbs), Barnes might be leading right now. I tend to be pessimistic about Democrats' chances of reclaiming rural seats like this that they lost in the early 2000s.

Like most in most other close House races, up-ballot conditions could determine the outcome.

Jay Nixon is likely to win this district in the governor's race, but McCain will likely win it for President unless Obama carries the state. 

[MarkWarner08]

This race won't be settled by a dearth of resources on either side. If the district had a greater take of the KC area (and not its more conservative suburbs), Barnes might be leading right now. I tend to be pessimistic about Democrats' chances of reclaiming rural seats like this that they lost in the early 2000s.

Like most in most other close House races, up-ballot conditions could determine the outcome.

Jay Nixon is likely to win this district in the governor's race, but McCain will likely win it for President unless Obama carries the state. 

Did Bob Holden carry it in 2000?

[Mr.Phips]

This race won't be settled by a dearth of resources on either side. If the district had a greater take of the KC area (and not its more conservative suburbs), Barnes might be leading right now. I tend to be pessimistic about Democrats' chances of reclaiming rural seats like this that they lost in the early 2000s.

Like most in most other close House races, up-ballot conditions could determine the outcome.

Jay Nixon is likely to win this district in the governor's race, but McCain will likely win it for President unless Obama carries the state. 

Did Bob Holden carry it in 2000?

I think he lost it by less than 1000 votes. 

[Flying Dog]

Graves is trying to paint Barnes as a San Francisco type liberal. Seems it's not working.

[MarkWarner08]

This race won't be settled by a dearth of resources on either side. If the district had a greater take of the KC area (and not its more conservative suburbs), Barnes might be leading right now. I tend to be pessimistic about Democrats' chances of reclaiming rural seats like this that they lost in the early 2000s.

Like most in most other close House races, up-ballot conditions could determine the outcome.

Jay Nixon is likely to win this district in the governor's race, but McCain will likely win it for President unless Obama carries the state. 

Did Bob Holden carry it in 2000?

I think he lost it by less than 1000 votes. 

Thanks. If Holden only narrowly lost MO-06, that bodes well for Nixon's chances.