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Author Topic: MS Sen - Rasmussen: Wicker expands lead  (Read 2119 times)
Sam Spade
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« on: July 30, 2008, 02:58:59 pm »
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I was wondering whether I should wait for Harry to post this... 

Note that Wicker is named as (R) and Musgrove as (D).

7/28/08, 500 Likely Voters, MOE +/- 4.5%

Wicker (R) 48% (+1)
Musgrove (D) 42% (-5)

With Leaners

Wicker (R) 52% (n/a)
Musgrove (D) 43% (n/a)

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MSUfan
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« Reply #1 on: July 30, 2008, 03:00:17 pm »
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MarkWarner08
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« Reply #2 on: July 30, 2008, 03:01:43 pm »
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Those Wicker ads are finally working.  Dole and now Wicker have received  boosts from their recent ad buys. Guess who is the only Republican Senator whose poll numbers haven't budged after  massive ($1 million a month for two consecutive months) ad expenditures?
The answer: Gordon Smith
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #3 on: July 30, 2008, 03:08:27 pm »
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Those Wicker ads are finally working.  Dole and now Wicker have received  boosts from their recent ad buys. Guess who is the only Republican Senator whose poll numbers haven't budged after  massive ($1 million a month for two consecutive months) ad expenditures?
The answer: Gordon Smith

We really haven't had enough polls to tell whether anything is working or not in Oregon, frankly.

Also, I suspect others will point to the recent Daily Kos-sponsored R2000 poll as saying your assumption may not necessarily be accurate here either.  Now, you know my feelings towards those polls (caveat emptor), but a decent argument could well be made.
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MarkWarner08
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« Reply #4 on: July 30, 2008, 03:10:13 pm »
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Those Wicker ads are finally working.  Dole and now Wicker have received  boosts from their recent ad buys. Guess who is the only Republican Senator whose poll numbers haven't budged after  massive ($1 million a month for two consecutive months) ad expenditures?
The answer: Gordon Smith

We really haven't had enough polls to tell whether anything is working or not in Oregon, frankly.

Also, I suspect others will point to the recent Daily Kos-sponsored R2000 poll as saying your assumption may not necessarily be accurate here either.  Now, you know my feelings towards those polls (caveat emptor), but a decent argument could well be made.
My view is that Smith's opposition is more entrenched than Wicker's. Since he was appointed, Wicker's greatest political foe has been his low name ID. Solving that is not very difficult. Overcoming a state's political leanings and a tough opponent is, which is why I'm mulling moving OR pas MS in the coming weeks.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #5 on: July 30, 2008, 03:13:02 pm »
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Those Wicker ads are finally working.  Dole and now Wicker have received  boosts from their recent ad buys. Guess who is the only Republican Senator whose poll numbers haven't budged after  massive ($1 million a month for two consecutive months) ad expenditures?
The answer: Gordon Smith

We really haven't had enough polls to tell whether anything is working or not in Oregon, frankly.

Also, I suspect others will point to the recent Daily Kos-sponsored R2000 poll as saying your assumption may not necessarily be accurate here either.  Now, you know my feelings towards those polls (caveat emptor), but a decent argument could well be made.
My view is that Smith's opposition is more entrenched than Wicker's. Since he was appointed, Wicker's greatest political foe has been his low name ID. Solving that is not very difficult. Overcoming a state's political leanings and a tough opponent is, which is why I'm mulling moving OR pas MS in the coming weeks.

I certainly agree.  FWIW, Musgrove's opposition is probably more entrenched than any of the other two, but that has to do with MS-centric factors. heh.

Note that I already did what you propose doing about 3-4 weeks ago.  Wink
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MarkWarner08
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« Reply #6 on: July 30, 2008, 03:18:52 pm »
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Those Wicker ads are finally working.  Dole and now Wicker have received  boosts from their recent ad buys. Guess who is the only Republican Senator whose poll numbers haven't budged after  massive ($1 million a month for two consecutive months) ad expenditures?
The answer: Gordon Smith

We really haven't had enough polls to tell whether anything is working or not in Oregon, frankly.

Also, I suspect others will point to the recent Daily Kos-sponsored R2000 poll as saying your assumption may not necessarily be accurate here either.  Now, you know my feelings towards those polls (caveat emptor), but a decent argument could well be made.
My view is that Smith's opposition is more entrenched than Wicker's. Since he was appointed, Wicker's greatest political foe has been his low name ID. Solving that is not very difficult. Overcoming a state's political leanings and a tough opponent is, which is why I'm mulling moving OR pas MS in the coming weeks.

I certainly agree.  FWIW, Musgrove's opposition is probably more entrenched than any of the other two, but that has to do with MS-centric factors. heh.

Note that I already did what you propose doing about 3-4 weeks ago.  Wink
I'm still waiting for another OR poll to confirm my view of the race.  It's good to hear that I'm not the only person who think OR may now be more competitive than MS. Take that, National Journal!
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Harry
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« Reply #7 on: July 30, 2008, 03:23:31 pm »
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I was wondering whether I should wait for Harry to post this... 
I've never posted a poll...


Anyway, until there are more polls to back this one up, I'm going to say it's an outlier.  All the rest of the polls have been close.
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #8 on: July 30, 2008, 03:24:15 pm »
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I was wondering whether I should wait for Harry to post this... 
I've never posted a poll...


Anyway, until there are more polls to back this one up, I'm going to say it's an outlier.  All the rest of the polls have been close.
The idea that this race is close is the only thing that was wrong with the polls.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #9 on: July 30, 2008, 03:24:54 pm »
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What is your view of Oregon exactly?
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Harry
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« Reply #10 on: July 30, 2008, 03:33:02 pm »
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After surveying the blogs, I learned that this poll included party labels when identifying the candidates.  Throw it out.
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Conan
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« Reply #11 on: July 30, 2008, 05:30:05 pm »
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I was wondering whether I should wait for Harry to post this... 

Note that Wicker is named as (R) and Musgrove as (D).

7/28/08, 500 Likely Voters, MOE +/- 4.5%

Wicker (R) 48% (+1)
Musgrove (D) 42% (-5)

With Leaners

Wicker (R) 52% (n/a)
Musgrove (D) 43% (n/a)

Link
You wrote that Wicker expanded his lead....however, according to the trend lines, they both used to have 47%. He opened a lead.
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« Reply #12 on: July 31, 2008, 12:16:24 pm »
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I say that this race is slightly leaning toward the GOP.  It can always change, however.

You may be surprised to hear this, but I am actually supporting Musgrove, since there are not very many moderates in the senate anymore.  Perhaps Collins and Snowe are the only true ones.
« Last Edit: July 31, 2008, 12:20:26 pm by Ronnie »Logged

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« Reply #13 on: July 31, 2008, 03:14:55 pm »
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After surveying the blogs, I learned that this poll included party labels when identifying the candidates.  Throw it out.

party labels hurt Wicker
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they live in between a, 'what is' and 'what if?'
MarkWarner08
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« Reply #14 on: July 31, 2008, 03:22:43 pm »
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After surveying the blogs, I learned that this poll included party labels when identifying the candidates.  Throw it out.

party labels hurt Wicker
Not in Mississiippi. Though it may help Wicker if AA voters don't know which one is the Democrat.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #15 on: July 31, 2008, 03:31:10 pm »
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After surveying the blogs, I learned that this poll included party labels when identifying the candidates.  Throw it out.

party labels hurt Wicker
Not in Mississiippi. Though it may help Wicker if AA voters don't know which one is the Democrat.

I would assume that the swingy white hill Democrats in Wicker's area know who he is - that's the key vote anyway.

Personally, I suspect most voters actually know these things, odd as it may sound, and will know it by election time. 

Do you think the Wicker campaign will make Wicker/McCain signs, for example? 

Do you think the Musgrove campaign will make Musgrove/Obama signs?  Oh whoops...
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MarkWarner08
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« Reply #16 on: July 31, 2008, 03:34:38 pm »
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After surveying the blogs, I learned that this poll included party labels when identifying the candidates.  Throw it out.

party labels hurt Wicker
Not in Mississiippi. Though it may help Wicker if AA voters don't know which one is the Democrat.

I would assume that the swingy white hill Democrats in Wicker's area know who he is - that's the key vote anyway.

Personally, I suspect most voters actually know these things, odd as it may sound, and will know it by election time. 

Do you think the Wicker campaign will make Wicker/McCain signs, for example? 

Do you think the Musgrove campaign will make Musgrove/Obama signs?  Oh whoops...
I'd like to see some McCain/Musgrove signs. If it works for Arlen Specter...
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #17 on: July 31, 2008, 03:36:14 pm »
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After surveying the blogs, I learned that this poll included party labels when identifying the candidates.  Throw it out.

party labels hurt Wicker
Not in Mississiippi. Though it may help Wicker if AA voters don't know which one is the Democrat.

I would assume that the swingy white hill Democrats in Wicker's area know who he is - that's the key vote anyway.

Personally, I suspect most voters actually know these things, odd as it may sound, and will know it by election time. 

Do you think the Wicker campaign will make Wicker/McCain signs, for example? 

Do you think the Musgrove campaign will make Musgrove/Obama signs?  Oh whoops...
I'd like to see some McCain/Musgrove signs. If it works for Arlen Specter...

What will the black people think, however?
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #18 on: July 31, 2008, 11:03:38 pm »
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After surveying the blogs, I learned that this poll included party labels when identifying the candidates.  Throw it out.

party labels hurt Wicker
Not in Mississiippi. Though it may help Wicker if AA voters don't know which one is the Democrat.

I would assume that the swingy white hill Democrats in Wicker's area know who he is - that's the key vote anyway.

Personally, I suspect most voters actually know these things, odd as it may sound, and will know it by election time. 

Do you think the Wicker campaign will make Wicker/McCain signs, for example? 

Do you think the Musgrove campaign will make Musgrove/Obama signs?  Oh whoops...
I'd like to see some McCain/Musgrove signs. If it works for Arlen Specter...

Unless you choose to analyze the Senate results based on Philly wards and such (which I'd do but that's another long story about getting election results in this city. Don't get me started. Seriously...), you're really not going to know if it "worked."
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Verily
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« Reply #19 on: July 31, 2008, 11:04:29 pm »
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After surveying the blogs, I learned that this poll included party labels when identifying the candidates.  Throw it out.

party labels hurt Wicker
Not in Mississiippi. Though it may help Wicker if AA voters don't know which one is the Democrat.

I would assume that the swingy white hill Democrats in Wicker's area know who he is - that's the key vote anyway.

Personally, I suspect most voters actually know these things, odd as it may sound, and will know it by election time. 

Do you think the Wicker campaign will make Wicker/McCain signs, for example? 

Do you think the Musgrove campaign will make Musgrove/Obama signs?  Oh whoops...
I'd like to see some McCain/Musgrove signs. If it works for Arlen Specter...

What will the black people think, however?

Not much if they're only placed in white areas. Combine it with advertising on black talk radio, and you have a pretty reasonable campaign strategy that prevents most people of each race from knowing that you're pandering shamelessly.
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Harry
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« Reply #20 on: July 31, 2008, 11:39:47 pm »
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Every black who votes knows Musgrove is a Democrat.  They appreciate how he had the courage to try to change the albatross we shamefully call a state flag.  They're not going to vote Wicker anyway.

Of course, every white also knows Musgrove is a Democrat.  But around 5% of the white electorate normally votes straight Republican in "national" races but would be open to voting for certain Democrats, and the lack of party labels will allow them to justify voting for Musgrove to themselves?  Silly--yes.  Enough to put Musgrove over the hump--maybe.

Just as Musgrove needs to avoid tying himself to Obama too much, Wicker needs to avoid McCain.  Few Mississippians are happy with their party's candidates this year.
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HardRCafé
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« Reply #21 on: August 01, 2008, 12:00:35 am »
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Wicker looks to be, at the very least, the Corker of this cycle.
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MarkWarner08
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« Reply #22 on: August 01, 2008, 12:05:11 am »
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Every black who votes knows Musgrove is a Democrat.  They appreciate how he had the courage to try to change the albatross we shamefully call a state flag.  They're not going to vote Wicker anyway.

Of course, every white also knows Musgrove is a Democrat.  But around 5% of the white electorate normally votes straight Republican in "national" races but would be open to voting for certain Democrats, and the lack of party labels will allow them to justify voting for Musgrove to themselves?  Silly--yes.  Enough to put Musgrove over the hump--maybe.

Just as Musgrove needs to avoid tying himself to Obama too much, Wicker needs to avoid McCain.  Few Mississippians are happy with their party's candidates this year.
Musgrove's name ID is 100%? I don't think so. What about all the new voters Obama's campaign has been registering. Many are in the 18-24 age group. These voters may not have formed a view of Musgrove, who has been out of office for five years.

Wicker looks to be, at the very least, the Corker of this cycle.
That's a rather astute analogy. Musgrove, like Ford, has personal baggage. Musgrove, like Corker, must introduce himself to the over 2/3 of the state's electorate. Unlike Corker, Wicker will not have an (R) at the end of his name.
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HardRCafé
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« Reply #23 on: August 01, 2008, 04:58:53 pm »
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Plus, Wicker will likely win despite being one of the weaker Republican Senate recruits.
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Harry
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« Reply #24 on: August 01, 2008, 05:14:43 pm »
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Musgrove's name ID is 100%? I don't think so. What about all the new voters Obama's campaign has been registering. Many are in the 18-24 age group. These voters may not have formed a view of Musgrove, who has been out of office for five years.

That's a rather astute analogy. Musgrove, like Ford, has personal baggage. Musgrove, like Corker, must introduce himself to the over 2/3 of the state's electorate. Unlike Corker, Wicker will not have an (R) at the end of his name.
Well no obviously it's not 100%, but the vast majority of voters have heard of Musgrove and remember him being governor.  Also, Wicker is the one who has to introduce himself to the state, not Musgrove.  Musgrove simply has to not let Wicker's attacks bog him down (I already hear attack ads on the radio often).

Also, the lack of an (R) next to Wicker's name is going to hurt him, not help him, barring Obama winning the election with 60%+ of the PV, and enough EV's to win Mississippi by several % points.
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