Harry Reid: Landrieu "not in any trouble at all"

[MarkWarner08]

But then, feeling feisty about the Democrats’ election prospects, he basically dared Republicans to stick around Washington. “We do not have a single Democratic incumbent — has any trouble at all. We’re in great shape,” Mr. Reid said. “There are 11 Republicans that we have races that they should be worried about, and they are worried about them.”
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/07/29/reid-dares-republicans-to-stay-over-break/

What about Mary Landrieu? The LA Senate race may be the most ignored race of the cycle.

[Keystone Phil]

The sad thing? He's probably right. Landrieu should hold on.

[Flying Dog]

He's the Majority "Leader". He's supposed to put on a strong front.

[MarkWarner08]

The sad thing? He's probably right. Landrieu should hold on.

I think she has a narrow edge, but she's not safe, as Reid implies. She barely won 50% against Woody Jenkins the last time she ran in a Presidential election year. Kennedy's fundraising is also solid for a GOP candidate. I expect her to eventually prevail with 52%-53%, but IMHO, she's more vulnerable than the other Southern female Senator in a competitive race, Liddy Dole.

[Keystone Phil]

she's more vulnerable than the other Southern female Senator in a competitive race, Liddy Dole.

Well, that's not saying much. She's obviously not safe but she's definitely the favorite. I'd love a pick up and expect us to fit for it but I'm more focusing on minimizing damage (as in only losing four seats).

[WalterMitty]

The sad thing? He's probably right. Landrieu should hold on.

you republicans shouldnt nominate nutters.

[Keystone Phil]

The sad thing? He's probably right. Landrieu should hold on.

you republicans shouldnt nominate nutters.

John Kennedy is a "nutter?"

[TheresNoMoney]

The DSCC knows what it's doing.  They will probably spend a little in LA to defend Landreiu, but she seems to be a solid favorite. Kennedy doesn't strike me as a very capable candidate.

[WalterMitty]

The sad thing? He's probably right. Landrieu should hold on.

you republicans shouldnt nominate nutters.

John Kennedy is a "nutter?"

from what i understand.

[HardRCafé]

Uh-oh!  Harry Reid might decide to be right about something one of these days!

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

The DSCC knows what it's doing.  They will probably spend a little in LA to defend Landreiu, but she seems to be a solid favorite. Kennedy doesn't strike me as a very capable candidate.

The DSCC has to go all out to back Landrieu.  It's what the NRSC and DSCC do—prioritize incumbent protection.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

I have a strong gut feeling that Landrieu will lose her bid for reelection in this Senate cycle. Sure the latest Rasmussen Poll indicated that Landrieu has a slender five point advantage over John Kennedy but I as I said, I expect Landrieu to lose her Senate seat, due to two reasons:

Firstly, Lousiana has been trending Republican significantly since the 2004 Presidential Election. In the 2004 Presidential Election President Bush increased his totals in Lousiana by four points from 52-44 over Gore in 2000 to 56-42 over John Kerry in 2004. Not to mention in the previous Lousiana Gubernatorial Election, the extremist Bobby Jindal managed to win the Governorship of Lousiana with 54 percent of the vote, with his closest opponent, Walter Boasso gathering 17 percent.

Secondly, a vast majority of African-American voters in Senator Landrieu's hometown of New Orleans have left since the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. I'm not sure what Landrieu's like with African-American voters in the Lousiana electorate,  but I am sure that their absence might cause havoc with Landrieu's reelection campaign.

Though these two reasons might be laughable, and I admit that as I have little to no knowledge about Senatorial Elections in the United States, that's my two cents on Senator Landrieu's chances to win reelection in 2008 over John Kennedy.

[Stranger in a strange land]

The de-blackification of Lousiana has been overstated. Firstly, many whites left the state also. Secondly, the majority of blacks displaced by Katrina moved to other parts of the state, mainly to Baton Rogue.

[Sam Spade]

Instead of listening to the majority leader, watch where the money is spent.

[MarkWarner08]

Instead of listening to the majority leader, watch where the money is spent.

Exactly. But this was a fun opportunity to contrast the political intuition of Reid with that of Mitch McConnell, who probably is already planning ways to help the GOP in 2010.