Diaz-Balarts: Which is more vulnerable?

[MarkWarner08]

Like the four year old in a candy store  who resorts to grabbing her uninterested mother's leg, Florida successfully captures the nation's attention every two years. In 2000, the Presidency was decided by butterfly ballots, an incompetent Secretary of State, and Gore's ill-fated decision not to purse a statewide recount in Florida. Two years later, revenge-seeking Democrats were stymied when Governor Jeb Bush won a smashing re-election win. Democrats also lost a U.S. House seat due to redistricting. The next Presidential election in Florida ended in another Bush win and a key Senate seat pickup for the GOP. in the midterm weave year of 2006, Democrats finally made gains at the legislative level and defeat two Republican House incumbents.

This election cycle features up to six competitive or potentially competitive House races. The are FL-08, FL-13, FL-16,  FL-21, FL-24, and FL-25.  Other possibly competitive districts include FL-15, FL-18, and FL-22. Seven of these seats are held by Republicans, and two of those seven are currently occupied by South Florida's Kennedys, the Diaz-Balarts.


FL-21:
Key facts: AA population = 6.5%. Hispanic = 69.7%
2006 result: 59%-41% Lincoln Diaz-Balart win
Lowest winning percentage: 59%, in 2006
PVI: R +6. Bush won 58%-42% in 2000. Bush won 57%-43% in 2004.

Democratic opponent: Raul Martinez who is the Mayor of Hialeah, which is the largest city in the district. City hall was recently named after him (Raul L. Martinez Government Center) and has enjoyed over 70% approval ratings in his home town. In 1989, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen's husband, a Bush-appointed U.S. Attorney, began a possibly politically-motivated investigation of Martinez's finance. Dexter Lehtinen, who knew that Martinez was planning to run against his wife in the upcoming special election for Claude Pepper's House seat, indicted Martinez on six counts of conspiracy and extortion. Martinez was then convicted and sentenced to ten years in jail. He appealed this decision and was eventually exonerated on one count by a jury.

Fundraising receipts:   Receipts            CoH
Lincoln Diaz-Balart      $1,551,352.00    $1,755,490.00     
Raul Martinez (D)    $1,219,984.00      $1,079,068.00     


FL-25:
Key facts: AA population = 10.0%. Hispanic = 62.4%
2006 result: 58%-42% Mario Diaz-Balart win
Lowest winning percentage: 58%, in 2006
PVI: R +6. Bush won 55%-45% in 2000. Bush won 56%-44% in 2004.

Democratic opponent: A cursory look at Joe Garcia’s resume leads to one conclusion: he must be another Cuban-American Republican.  Garcia is the former executive director of the Cuban American National Foundation, an organization focused on toppling the Castro regime. Garcias has polished his anti-Cuban government bona fides with his propensity for fiery anti-communist speeches. Well-known in the Cuban community for his work to help drug-addicted teens, Garcia has accrued a significant amount of social capital that he can apply to a Congressional campaign. Unlike Martinez who faces an eight-term incumbent with a powerful committee assignment, Garcia’s foe is a relative newcomer who has been accused of focusing solely on foreign policy issues.  Garcia’s work with the Cuban exiles who earned him credibility with older Cuban-Americans, who tend to vote heavily Republican. His youthful image and off-the-cuff speaking style has also impressed younger Cubans, who are now voting Democratic in greater numbers than ever before.

Fundraising receipts:   Receipts            CoH
Mario Diaz-Balart      $1,111,156.00  $1,044,586.00   
Joe Garcia (D)         $844,534.00      $700,983.00   

At this point in the campaign, I'd say Mario is in more trouble than Lincoln. Mario's fundraising has lagged behind his brother's and he faces an opponent with no political baggage and no voting record to scrutinize. FL-25 is also more Democratic than FL-21.

[Mr.Phips]

Probably Lincoln.  Martinez is very popular and has a solid political base in the district, unlike Garcia. 

[MarkWarner08]

Probably Lincoln.  Martinez is very popular and has a solid political base in the district, unlike Garcia. 

But he also has the baggage from the trial. His political base is quite similar to Harry Mitchell's in AZ-05. The main differences are that AZ-05 was a little less Republican than FL-21 and Mitchell's home base was diluted by other suburbs where his name ID was much lower.  The scandal factor worked in Mitchell's favor; in FL-21, it may work against the Democratic challenger.

Garcia's background offers little fodder for attack ads, which is immensely helpful to a challenger.

[Mr.Phips]

Probably Lincoln.  Martinez is very popular and has a solid political base in the district, unlike Garcia. 

But he also has the baggage from the trial. His political base is quite similar to Harry Mitchell's in AZ-05. The main differences are that AZ-05 was a little less Republican than FL-21 and Mitchell's home base was diluted by other suburbs where his name ID was much lower.  The scandal factor worked in Mitchell's favor; in FL-21, it may work against the Democratic challenger.

Garcia's background offers little fodder for attack ads, which is immensely helpful to a challenger.

I always think of the AZ-05 race when I think of FL-21.  To say that there was a scandal factor in AZ-05 is really pushing it.  Hayworth may have had some vague ties to Abrahamoff, but it was nothing like in CA-11, FL-16, or PA-10.  Still, Mitchell winning that district was a huge surprise to me on election night. 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Mario

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Write-in: The entire human race via meteor strike.

[MarkWarner08]

Write-in:

Painfully obvious hack response:

In terms of vulnerability: the entire human race via meteor strike > Frank Lautenberg

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Write-in:

Painfully obvious hack response:

In terms of vulnerability: the entire human race via meteor strike > Frank Lautenberg

I wish I could seriously disagree.

Nature probably has a better chance of taking out Lautenberg than Zimmer does.

[Brittain33]

Write-in: The entire human race via meteor strike.

Yeah, and Sue Kelly and Charlie Bass were beloved centrists who were never going to lose... the history and record are what they are, but these guys have never been seriously challenged by viable candidates before in a dramatically changing environment. Maybe they'll cruise to reelection this year, but until they do, it's hubristic to presume that nothing has changed. On too many economic criteria, these seats are outliers for voting Republican. Anything can be explained by "all Cuban voters vote Republican and don't care about domestic policy" but I don't think one can argue that factor is set in stone until it's withstood one serious test.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Write-in: The entire human race via meteor strike.

Yeah, and Sue Kelly and Charlie Bass were beloved centrists who were never going to lose... the history and record are what they are, but these guys have never been seriously challenged by viable candidates before in a dramatically changing environment. Maybe they'll cruise to reelection this year, but until they do, it's hubristic to presume that nothing has changed.

I think it's hubristic to think that anything has changed.  There is a big difference between moving moderate-to-liberal independent voters and hard-wired Cuban voters.

Winning GOP-held seats in New England is very different than winning GOP-held seats in Florida.  The Kelly/Bass seats have been trending Democratic for at least a decade.  Democrats breaking into the Cuban vote is something that's still in the planning stage.

[Brittain33]

Isn't there a difference between believing there's a possibility of a change vs. categorically ruling it out? Only one of them is an absolute statement, and there is at least some reason to think there could be change, whereas there's no reason to think Obama's going to carry Kentucky or NE-3 is going to vote Democratic or whatever.

The Diaz-Balarts have never had serious challengers before and now face two credible Cuban-American Democrats in an unfavorable year, at a time when the Cuban-American community is undergoing tremendous demographic change and the economy in that part of the country is in the pits. If the pundits are putting these districts on watch lists, that means it's not just Democratic hackery to say they are less safe than suburban Texas or Mormon districts.

[HardRCafé]

If the pundits are putting these districts on watch lists, that means it's not just Democratic hackery to say they are less safe than suburban Texas or Mormon districts.

The pundits also said the biggest surprise of 2006 was that Patty Wetterling lost.  That's still just Democratic hackery.

[Sam Spade]

If the pundits are putting these districts on watch lists, that means it's not just Democratic hackery to say they are less safe than suburban Texas or Mormon districts.

The pundits also said the biggest surprise of 2006 was that Patty Wetterling lost.  That's still just Democratic hackery.

Who did?  If so, that person = idiot.

[HardRCafé]

CQPolitics.com:

Biggest surprise: Minnesota Republican Michele Bachmann insisted her reputation as an outspoken social conservative put her right in line with voters in Minnesota’s 6th District, which reaches from suburbs of Minneapolis-St. Paul to the city of St. Cloud.

I thought the anti-Republican climate would seriously hinder Bachmann, as would the apparent strength of her opponent, Patty Wetterling. The Democrat ran a viable campaign in 2004 against the Republican incumbent, Mark Kennedy, who left the seat open this year for a Senate bid that failed.

Wetterling, well known for years as a child safety advocate who had suffered the personal tragedy of losing a son, also had gained visibility late in the campaign as a sharp critic of the Republican leadership’s handling of the Foley page scandal.

[Sam Spade]

You remind me why I don't listen to CQPolitics very much.

[HardRCafé]

Good man.

[Brittain33]

CQPolitics.com:

Biggest surprise: Minnesota Republican Michele Bachmann insisted her reputation as an outspoken social conservative put her right in line with voters in Minnesota’s 6th District, which reaches from suburbs of Minneapolis-St. Paul to the city of St. Cloud.

I thought the anti-Republican climate would seriously hinder Bachmann, as would the apparent strength of her opponent, Patty Wetterling. The Democrat ran a viable campaign in 2004 against the Republican incumbent, Mark Kennedy, who left the seat open this year for a Senate bid that failed.

Wetterling, well known for years as a child safety advocate who had suffered the personal tragedy of losing a son, also had gained visibility late in the campaign as a sharp critic of the Republican leadership’s handling of the Foley page scandal.

Well, I wouldn't have ranked that as "biggest surprise," however Bachmann's sizable margin of victory over Wetterling was a surprise. So is the fact that Bachmann ran better* against Wetterling than Kennedy did, considering Kennedy's reputation as God's gift to the Republican Party. Who predicted that?

*I don't know if she ran better in absolute terms, but considering she was a non-incumbent running in a much worse year, she did relatively much better than he did.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Just for the record,

Wetterling lost to Kennedy by 8.05%.

Wetterling lost to Bachmann by 7.98%.

Though Wetterling's share of the vote fell from 46% to 42%.

[HardRCafé]

The biggest surprise was the unflappable belief Wetterling was in any way a good candidate for that seat.

[Spaghetti Cat]

This year the Dems have dug up a great candidate (cough, cough).