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Poll
Question: Is this scenario possible?
Another 269-269 scenario is more likely than this one   -3 (13.6%)
yes   -8 (36.4%)
yes, but not likely   -10 (45.5%)
no   -1 (4.5%)
no 269-269 scenario will likely happen   -0 (0%)
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Total Voters: 22

Author Topic: 269-269  (Read 5451 times)
Sheldon Coopr
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« on: August 04, 2008, 07:33:45 am »
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Don't pay too much attention to the relative lightness darkness, just whether a state is red or blue.
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Sheldon Coopr
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« Reply #1 on: August 04, 2008, 07:35:10 am »
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I think it almost inevitable that Obama would win if it goes to the house and his running mate would be chosen by the Senate.
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« Reply #2 on: August 04, 2008, 07:39:38 am »
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I think it almost inevitable that Obama would win if it goes to the house and his running mate vice president would be chosen by the Senate.
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« Reply #3 on: August 04, 2008, 11:05:05 am »
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Who do you see as winning the popular vote in this scenario?

Here's a kicker of a thought -- let's say McCain wins the popular vote with an electoral vote tie.  How loud do you think the screaming will be if the House selects Obama?  Or ... might a compromise be met with the House breaking the tie in McCain's favor with the Senate naming as VP the Democrat VP candidate, or maybe Obama? 
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If you ran a company whose only strategy was to tear down the competition, it wouldnít last long. So why is this wisdom so hard to find in Washington?... if an idea works, it really doesnít matter if it has an ĎRí or ĎDí next to it ... Because this election isnít about liberal versus conservative. Itís not about left versus right. Itís about the future versus the past.
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« Reply #4 on: August 04, 2008, 11:12:13 am »
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def. the most probable tie scenario in IMO
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« Reply #5 on: August 04, 2008, 11:22:32 am »
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Who do you see as winning the popular vote in this scenario?

Here's a kicker of a thought -- let's say McCain wins the popular vote with an electoral vote tie.  How loud do you think the screaming will be if the House selects Obama?  Or ... might a compromise be met with the House breaking the tie in McCain's favor with the Senate naming as VP the Democrat VP candidate, or maybe Obama? 

The Senate would not be able to elect Obama as VP.  The candidates from whom they are permitted to choose are solely the top 2 finishers in the EV--most likely, McCain & Obama's running mates.  Unless this deal was worked out by early December and more than half of the Obama electors decided to vote for Obama as VP instead (which would not happen), the choice would solely be between the two running-mates.
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« Reply #6 on: August 04, 2008, 08:49:58 pm »
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Damn....if this DOES happen and McCain is elected in the House, that would cause a sh**t load of problems in the Democratic Caucus.
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« Reply #7 on: August 04, 2008, 10:55:38 pm »
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Switch Nevada, New Hampshire and Colorado for a mildly more likely 269-269, I think.
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« Reply #8 on: August 04, 2008, 11:52:02 pm »
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Switch Nevada, New Hampshire and Colorado for a mildly more likely 269-269, I think.
That's about right. Basically, what Obama has now, but McCain stuffs him in New Hampshire.
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Sheldon Coopr
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« Reply #9 on: August 05, 2008, 07:29:31 am »
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Will there be as many tie scenarios in 2012?
An interesting question to ponder.
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« Reply #10 on: August 05, 2008, 11:30:40 am »
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Tie: Non-Contiguous Blue


Tie: East v West


Tie: North v South
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« Reply #11 on: August 05, 2008, 01:51:47 pm »
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Senate Democrats are so ineffective and Senate Republicans so crafty that I'm almost certain Obama would end up with a VP from the GOP.
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« Reply #12 on: August 06, 2008, 12:37:04 am »
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Who do you see as winning the popular vote in this scenario?

Here's a kicker of a thought -- let's say McCain wins the popular vote with an electoral vote tie.  How loud do you think the screaming will be if the House selects Obama?  Or ... might a compromise be met with the House breaking the tie in McCain's favor with the Senate naming as VP the Democrat VP candidate, or maybe Obama? 

How many people wanted to kick Katherine Harris' ass?
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Sheldon Coopr
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« Reply #13 on: August 06, 2008, 09:15:20 am »
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two more ties:



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Sheldon Coopr
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« Reply #14 on: August 06, 2008, 09:20:45 am »
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or how about this one:

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Sheldon Coopr
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« Reply #15 on: August 06, 2008, 09:22:22 am »
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or.....how about ??

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Sheldon Coopr
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« Reply #16 on: August 06, 2008, 09:25:09 am »
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or!

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« Reply #17 on: August 29, 2008, 05:37:55 am »
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An interesting one is this one:



Sure, Michigan should be Dem in the end. But I wanted one scenario with a Dem Virginia.
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« Reply #18 on: August 30, 2008, 11:40:40 pm »
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I've only come up with one realistic tie in this election:

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J. J.

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« Reply #19 on: August 31, 2008, 12:58:17 pm »
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I've only come up with one realistic tie in this election:



This one is plausible, but not as likely as your scenario.

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« Reply #20 on: August 31, 2008, 02:56:18 pm »
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I think the 269-269 is far more probable than most people would care to admit.

MacFarlan's maps are interesting, but I just don't see how Michigan can go GOP. Or Wisconsin, really, when you get right down to nuts and bolts and the ground strength Obama has there.

If I were in Vegas and able to set odds to draw action, I'd make it about 12 to 1 against it happening. In reality, I'd say it's about 25 or 30 to 1 against.

More likely, I think, is a clear winner. Maybe even by a larger margin than we expect, like Reagan over Carter in 1980. For now, I would say that person is more likely to be Obama, though that could change.

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« Reply #21 on: September 06, 2008, 09:39:21 pm »
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I've only come up with one realistic tie in this election:



This one is plausible, but not as likely as your scenario.



If it had been Romney on the ticket, possibly, but I still NH would have gone McCain.
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J. J.

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« Reply #22 on: September 06, 2008, 11:54:36 pm »
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I've only come up with one realistic tie in this election:



This one is plausible, but not as likely as your scenario.



If it had been Romney on the ticket, possibly, but I still NH would have gone McCain.

....I will go with JJ's map. The next question is which pop vote would most likely create the map.
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« Reply #23 on: September 07, 2008, 04:55:49 pm »
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I think Nevada going Democratic is more likely than New Hampshire going Republican, so the original scenario is the most likely.
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classical liberal
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« Reply #24 on: September 07, 2008, 09:57:59 pm »
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I think Nevada going Democratic is more likely than New Hampshire going Republican, so the original scenario is the most likely.

NV is more likely to flip than NH because Obama is more likely to win the NPV than McCain.  The point is that NV is less likely to flip than CO, which is IMHO what invalidates the original map.
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