Military Estimates on Russia-Georgia Conflict?
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  Military Estimates on Russia-Georgia Conflict?
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Author Topic: Military Estimates on Russia-Georgia Conflict?  (Read 2044 times)
War on Want
Evilmexicandictator
Junior Chimp
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« on: August 09, 2008, 12:45:50 PM »

Does anybody have estimates on the size of Russia's, Georgia's, South Ossetia seperatist forces and Abkhazia forces?
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #1 on: August 09, 2008, 01:18:20 PM »
« Edited: August 09, 2008, 01:24:19 PM by Old Europe »

You never know how (un-)accurate Wikipedia is, but they have some statistics in their newly created page on the "2008 South Ossetia War":

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_South_Ossetia_War#Opposing_forces


EDIT: And someone just removed the table, arguing that it constitutes Russian propaganda. I guess the Russian-Georgian cyberwar is also waged on Wikipedia.
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #2 on: August 09, 2008, 01:23:27 PM »

Is there any possibility that other foreign nations may get involved?
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #3 on: August 09, 2008, 01:28:01 PM »

Is there any possibility that other foreign nations may get involved?

I doubt that anyone else feels like it today.
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Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]
tsionebreicruoc
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« Reply #4 on: August 09, 2008, 01:57:33 PM »

Is there any possibility that other foreign nations may get involved?

This is just the most important part of the story.
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Hash
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« Reply #5 on: August 09, 2008, 02:39:10 PM »

Is there any possibility that other foreign nations may get involved?

No. The US is tied down in Iraq and has diplomatic worries abroad (but the US supports Georgia diplomatically, for sure). I doubt any European country would want to intervene directly against Russia. Ukraine, depsite Yushchenko being close to Saakashvili, will certainly not intervene, because Russia is a threatening power to Ukraine. I'm not sure what Putin's Belorussian clone is doing in this situation.
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War on Want
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« Reply #6 on: August 09, 2008, 02:47:10 PM »

Is there any possibility that other foreign nations may get involved?

No. The US is tied down in Iraq and has diplomatic worries abroad (but the US supports Georgia diplomatically, for sure). I doubt any European country would want to intervene directly against Russia. Ukraine, depsite Yushchenko being close to Saakashvili, will certainly not intervene, because Russia is a threatening power to Ukraine. I'm not sure what Putin's Belorussian clone is doing in this situation.
Essentially the only powers I could see getting involved are Azerbajian, Turkey(if Adjara revolts) and perhaps Armenia.
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GMantis
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« Reply #7 on: August 09, 2008, 02:55:35 PM »

No one will intervene.
The Ukraine won't do anything: any action against Russia will split the country in two.
And Armenia is pro-Russian.
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JSojourner
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« Reply #8 on: August 09, 2008, 02:57:20 PM »

Is there any good footage of combat out there?  Like on You Tube?  I am not finding anything, other than the same old clips the networks are running.

Also, any good maps showing troop movements, etc? 
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Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]
tsionebreicruoc
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« Reply #9 on: August 09, 2008, 02:58:19 PM »

Is there any possibility that other foreign nations may get involved?

No. The US is tied down in Iraq and has diplomatic worries abroad (but the US supports Georgia diplomatically, for sure). I doubt any European country would want to intervene directly against Russia. Ukraine, depsite Yushchenko being close to Saakashvili, will certainly not intervene, because Russia is a threatening power to Ukraine. I'm not sure what Putin's Belorussian clone is doing in this situation.
Essentially the only powers I could see getting involved are Azerbajian, Turkey(if Adjara revolts) and perhaps Armenia.

For real I think that no one not directly threatened by a direct involvement in the conflict would move until US say what they do. I would be surprised that US intervene too, but NATO rethoric is the totally opposite of the Russia one. Russia says: "Ossetia is no more part of Georgia" and NATO says: "The sovereignty of Georgia must be respected". Diplomacy can still rule the conflict but the ways to do so are tiny.
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War on Want
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« Reply #10 on: August 09, 2008, 02:59:55 PM »

No one will intervene.
The Ukraine won't do anything: any action against Russia will split the country in two.
And Armenia is pro-Russian.
Yep that is another large reason Ukraine will not intervene. There would be a huge civil war.
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Hash
Hashemite
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« Reply #11 on: August 09, 2008, 04:18:58 PM »

Is there any possibility that other foreign nations may get involved?

No. The US is tied down in Iraq and has diplomatic worries abroad (but the US supports Georgia diplomatically, for sure). I doubt any European country would want to intervene directly against Russia. Ukraine, depsite Yushchenko being close to Saakashvili, will certainly not intervene, because Russia is a threatening power to Ukraine. I'm not sure what Putin's Belorussian clone is doing in this situation.
Essentially the only powers I could see getting involved are Azerbajian, Turkey(if Adjara revolts) and perhaps Armenia.

Turkey won't fight Russia. If Adjara revolts, they'll only occupy the region (like they did in Iraq) to prevent secessionist movements, ala Kurdistan.
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Dan the Roman
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« Reply #12 on: August 09, 2008, 06:22:52 PM »
« Edited: August 09, 2008, 07:15:11 PM by dantheroman »

There are currently about 1000 US Troops in the country, but they are highly unlikely to be a major factor since neither the US or Russia want them to be involved.

Also raw numbers are, as the Armenian-Azerbaijan war in the early 1990s proved, much less important than the quality for whats going on now. So far at least, Russia does not appear to attempting to occupy all of Georgia, and so no general war has broken out. Given that the actual fighting seems limited to South Ossetia and Abkhazia , Georgia's massive numeric inferiority is less relevant. At the same time, the fact that the Georgians are a professional force that are American trained and have seen action in Iraq in urban environments while the Russians are a low-morale, poorly trained, conscript force is likely to keep it closer than it would otherwise be.
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dead0man
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« Reply #13 on: August 09, 2008, 07:12:09 PM »

The Army and Marine Corps are a bit stretched right now, but the Air Force is actually in a lot better position than they normally would be if we weren't "tied down in Iraq" and air superiority is the most important factor in modern warfare.  If we wanted to we could rule the skies over Georgia in a half an hour and have a few hundred Special Ops on the ground in less than a day.  It's not going to be lack of ability that keeps us from helping the Georgians.
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War on Want
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« Reply #14 on: August 09, 2008, 07:13:37 PM »

Is there any possibility that other foreign nations may get involved?

No. The US is tied down in Iraq and has diplomatic worries abroad (but the US supports Georgia diplomatically, for sure). I doubt any European country would want to intervene directly against Russia. Ukraine, depsite Yushchenko being close to Saakashvili, will certainly not intervene, because Russia is a threatening power to Ukraine. I'm not sure what Putin's Belorussian clone is doing in this situation.
Essentially the only powers I could see getting involved are Azerbajian, Turkey(if Adjara revolts) and perhaps Armenia.

Turkey won't fight Russia. If Adjara revolts, they'll only occupy the region (like they did in Iraq) to prevent secessionist movements, ala Kurdistan.
I meant on the side of Russia.
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Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]
tsionebreicruoc
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« Reply #15 on: August 10, 2008, 03:16:31 AM »
« Edited: August 10, 2008, 03:32:04 AM by 我寻找感觉和方向 »

Russians are a low-morale, poorly trained, conscript force is likely to keep it closer than it would otherwise be.

These is forgetting all their experiences of the 2 wars in Chechnya.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #16 on: August 10, 2008, 09:00:46 AM »

Reports from a number of agencies that the Russian Navy's Black Sea Fleet are moving to blockade Georgian ports, including Moskva, a "Slava" class cruiser.
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Flying Dog
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« Reply #17 on: August 11, 2008, 03:03:36 PM »

Reports from a number of agencies that the Russian Navy's Black Sea Fleet are moving to blockade Georgian ports, including Moskva, a "Slava" class cruiser.

This has the makings of a much larger (then South Ossetia) war.
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J. J.
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« Reply #18 on: August 11, 2008, 03:52:15 PM »

Reports from a number of agencies that the Russian Navy's Black Sea Fleet are moving to blockade Georgian ports, including Moskva, a "Slava" class cruiser.

This has the makings of a much larger (then South Ossetia) war.

Moderate to high.
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