Cornucopia of Congressional Chatter

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Don't be at all surprised if Stivers wins.  He's a moderate (Conservative on economics, moderate-to-liberal on social issues), he's done well fundraising, he's a good campaigner, has a good local reputation, and is an extremely hard worker.  Kilroy is a typical liberal partisan, a very poor campaigner, although she is a better fundraiser than Stivers.  Also if Kilroy wins, she'll lose after her first or second term (she's way too liberal on economic issues to last any longer). 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Mary Jo Kilroy is the type of candidate who to me always looks like could snap defeat from the jaws of victory.  After all, she did it in 2006.

Like an experienced Darcy Bruner.

[Mr.Phips]

Don't be at all surprised if Stivers wins.  He's a moderate (Conservative on economics, moderate-to-liberal on social issues), he's done well fundraising, he's a good campaigner, has a good local reputation, and is an extremely hard worker.  Kilroy is a typical liberal partisan, a very poor campaigner, although she is a better fundraiser than Stivers.  Also if Kilroy wins, she'll lose after her first or second term (she's way too liberal on economic issues to last any longer). 

Obama is likely to do very well in this district.  This plus a Conservative third party candidate should pull Kilroy over the finish line. 

[MarkWarner08]

Don't be at all surprised if Stivers wins.  He's a moderate (Conservative on economics, moderate-to-liberal on social issues), he's done well fundraising, he's a good campaigner, has a good local reputation, and is an extremely hard worker.  Kilroy is a typical liberal partisan, a very poor campaigner, although she is a better fundraiser than Stivers.  Also if Kilroy wins, she'll lose after her first or second term (she's way too liberal on economic issues to last any longer). 

Obama is likely to do very well in this district.  This plus a Conservative third party candidate should pull Kilroy over the finish line. 

And it's rapidly trending Democratic. Still, I wouldn't be shocked if Ds won in OH-16 but narrowly lost in OH-15.

[Mr.Phips]

Don't be at all surprised if Stivers wins.  He's a moderate (Conservative on economics, moderate-to-liberal on social issues), he's done well fundraising, he's a good campaigner, has a good local reputation, and is an extremely hard worker.  Kilroy is a typical liberal partisan, a very poor campaigner, although she is a better fundraiser than Stivers.  Also if Kilroy wins, she'll lose after her first or second term (she's way too liberal on economic issues to last any longer). 

Obama is likely to do very well in this district.  This plus a Conservative third party candidate should pull Kilroy over the finish line. 

And it's rapidly trending Democratic. Still, I wouldn't be shocked if Ds won in OH-16 but narrowly lost in OH-15.

Id be very surprised if they lost OH-15. 

[MarkWarner08]

Purloined from Swing State Project:

District     2006     2008     Change     %age
FL-08    14,388    2,113    12,275    85%
FL-25    21,818    7,857    13,961    64%
FL-18    23,202    8,456    14,746    64%
FL-21    28,146    14,999    13,147    47%
FL-16    31,228    21,201    10,027    32%
FL-15    31,509    22,153    9,356    30%
FL-24    32,310    23,263    9,047    28%
FL-09    33,956    28,614    5,342    16%
FL-13    62,230    55,542    6,688    11%

Democrats gained in every one of these districts. Note to Sam Spade: It may be time to add FL-25 to your list.

[Sam Spade]

FL-25 is already on the list.

[MarkWarner08]

FL-25 is already on the list.

Are you sure? I didn't see it on the watch list:

Watch List (note: I'm only including 16 races that I "think" could be interesting, so that the number nicely rounds to 50 (EDIT: No longer, it's 52).  I tend to include races that 1) are in marginal CDs; 2) open seats; 3) challengers have money; 4) freshman Reps; 5) bad candidates)
AZ-03 (Shadegg)
CA-04* (Doolittle)
DE-AL (Castle)
FL-08 (Keller)
FL-13 (Buchanan)
FL-21 (Diaz-Balart)
IL-06 (Roskam)
IL-18* (LaHood)
NJ-05 (Garrett)
OH-14 (LaTourette)
PA-03 (English)
PA-15 (Dent)
PA-18 (Murphy)
TX-10 (McCaul - for MarkWarner08!)
VA-02 (Drake)
VA-05 (Goode)
VA-10 (Wolf)

Sorry about being such a stickler over this. I just mention it because I think you probably agree that FL-25 should be ranked above PA-18, for example.

[Mr.Phips]

Purloined from Swing State Project:

District     2006     2008     Change     %age
FL-08    14,388    2,113    12,275    85%
FL-25    21,818    7,857    13,961    64%
FL-18    23,202    8,456    14,746    64%
FL-21    28,146    14,999    13,147    47%
FL-16    31,228    21,201    10,027    32%
FL-15    31,509    22,153    9,356    30%
FL-24    32,310    23,263    9,047    28%
FL-09    33,956    28,614    5,342    16%
FL-13    62,230    55,542    6,688    11%

Democrats gained in every one of these districts. Note to Sam Spade: It may be time to add FL-25 to your list.

Thats certainly good news for Mahoney. 

[HardRCafé]

Christine Jennings faced a somewhat talented self-funder.  A rarity.

I heard she got Miss Congeniality, though.

[Sam Spade]

FL-25 is already on the list.

Are you sure? I didn't see it on the watch list:

Watch List (note: I'm only including 16 races that I "think" could be interesting, so that the number nicely rounds to 50 (EDIT: No longer, it's 52).  I tend to include races that 1) are in marginal CDs; 2) open seats; 3) challengers have money; 4) freshman Reps; 5) bad candidates)
AZ-03 (Shadegg)
CA-04* (Doolittle)
DE-AL (Castle)
FL-08 (Keller)
FL-13 (Buchanan)
FL-21 (Diaz-Balart)
IL-06 (Roskam)
IL-18* (LaHood)
NJ-05 (Garrett)
OH-14 (LaTourette)
PA-03 (English)
PA-15 (Dent)
PA-18 (Murphy)
TX-10 (McCaul - for MarkWarner08!)
VA-02 (Drake)
VA-05 (Goode)
VA-10 (Wolf)

Sorry about being such a stickler over this. I just mention it because I think you probably agree that FL-25 should be ranked above PA-18, for example.

Of course.  And it should certainly be ranked higher than TX-10... 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Don't be at all surprised if Stivers wins.  He's a moderate (Conservative on economics, moderate-to-liberal on social issues), he's done well fundraising, he's a good campaigner, has a good local reputation, and is an extremely hard worker.  Kilroy is a typical liberal partisan, a very poor campaigner, although she is a better fundraiser than Stivers.  Also if Kilroy wins, she'll lose after her first or second term (she's way too liberal on economic issues to last any longer). 

Obama is likely to do very well in this district.  This plus a Conservative third party candidate should pull Kilroy over the finish line. 

And it's rapidly trending Democratic. Still, I wouldn't be shocked if Ds won in OH-16 but narrowly lost in OH-15.

Id be very surprised if they lost OH-15. 

Kilroy could win, but so could Stivers.  In any event, even if Kilroy does win, she won't last more than two terms (far too liberal on economic issues).

[Mr.Phips]

Don't be at all surprised if Stivers wins.  He's a moderate (Conservative on economics, moderate-to-liberal on social issues), he's done well fundraising, he's a good campaigner, has a good local reputation, and is an extremely hard worker.  Kilroy is a typical liberal partisan, a very poor campaigner, although she is a better fundraiser than Stivers.  Also if Kilroy wins, she'll lose after her first or second term (she's way too liberal on economic issues to last any longer). 

Obama is likely to do very well in this district.  This plus a Conservative third party candidate should pull Kilroy over the finish line. 

And it's rapidly trending Democratic. Still, I wouldn't be shocked if Ds won in OH-16 but narrowly lost in OH-15.

Id be very surprised if they lost OH-15. 

Kilroy could win, but so could Stivers.  In any event, even if Kilroy does win, she won't last more than two terms (far too liberal on economic issues).

I dont know.  That district is rapidly trending Dem and if Kilroy can win it she should be able to hold onto it. 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Don't be at all surprised if Stivers wins.  He's a moderate (Conservative on economics, moderate-to-liberal on social issues), he's done well fundraising, he's a good campaigner, has a good local reputation, and is an extremely hard worker.  Kilroy is a typical liberal partisan, a very poor campaigner, although she is a better fundraiser than Stivers.  Also if Kilroy wins, she'll lose after her first or second term (she's way too liberal on economic issues to last any longer). 

Obama is likely to do very well in this district.  This plus a Conservative third party candidate should pull Kilroy over the finish line. 

And it's rapidly trending Democratic. Still, I wouldn't be shocked if Ds won in OH-16 but narrowly lost in OH-15.

Id be very surprised if they lost OH-15. 

Kilroy could win, but so could Stivers.  In any event, even if Kilroy does win, she won't last more than two terms (far too liberal on economic issues).

I dont know.  That district is rapidly trending Dem and if Kilroy can win it she should be able to hold onto it. 

Well, we'll find out.

[MarkWarner08]

FL-25 is already on the list.

Are you sure? I didn't see it on the watch list:

Watch List (note: I'm only including 16 races that I "think" could be interesting, so that the number nicely rounds to 50 (EDIT: No longer, it's 52).  I tend to include races that 1) are in marginal CDs; 2) open seats; 3) challengers have money; 4) freshman Reps; 5) bad candidates)
AZ-03 (Shadegg)
CA-04* (Doolittle)
DE-AL (Castle)
FL-08 (Keller)
FL-13 (Buchanan)
FL-21 (Diaz-Balart)
IL-06 (Roskam)
IL-18* (LaHood)
NJ-05 (Garrett)
OH-14 (LaTourette)
PA-03 (English)
PA-15 (Dent)
PA-18 (Murphy)
TX-10 (McCaul - for MarkWarner08!)
VA-02 (Drake)
VA-05 (Goode)
VA-10 (Wolf)

Sorry about being such a stickler over this. I just mention it because I think you probably agree that FL-25 should be ranked above PA-18, for example.

Of course.  And it should certainly be ranked higher than TX-10... 

Touché.

[MarkWarner08]

Randy Kuhl today became the first House Republican to run a TV ad that (a) blamed high gas prices on Democrats and (b) reminded voters of the "Democrat [sic] majority" in the House.

[MarkWarner08]

This is for you, DriedApples.

Tim Walberg riding a Harley in his new TV ad:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CgXn7sWPfpE

[MarkWarner08]

The SEIU is pounding Sununu and Smith with a roughly $500k ad buy against each Senator.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard//SEIU_Up_With_11M_In_Ads.html

The Smith ad is weak. It distracts the viewer with tons of images and lacks a serious punch at the end.

[MarkWarner08]

Phil English's first ad is negative:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HmLzZ2tZ7qw

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

From all appearances, it seems like Paul Carmouche will win the LA-4 democratic primary.  If he does would he be competitive?  Neither Republican seems strong in any area besides fundraising, yet everyone rates it lean Republican.  Could someone explain this for me?

[MarkWarner08]

From all appearances, it seems like Paul Carmouche will win the LA-4 democratic primary.  If he does would he be competitive?  Neither Republican seems strong in any area besides fundraising, yet everyone rates it lean Republican.  Could someone explain this for me?

Carmouche is the right Democrat for this district. He's a long-time local official, but he hasn't had to cast votes on social issues that could later be used against him in ads. His experience at the local level insulates him from charges that he's a Washington liberal. He is essentially a Democrat in the Travis Childers mold -- a small town, good ol' boy who knows how play to rural whites and blacks.

I haven't really followed the GOP contest. Apparently the millionaire is leading the GOP pack.
http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/2008/08/louisiana-4-flemings-poll-shows-wide.html

[MarkWarner08]

Nancy Boyda reaffirms her commitment to running a "different kind of campaign."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b_ZmUkkSF4c

[JohnnyLongtorso]

OR-5: Republican Mike Erickson's campaign just falls deeper and deeper into the pit:

http://www.oregonlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2008/08/mike_ericksons_trip_to_cuba.html

I know all my charity missions end with a good cockfight!

[Brittain33]

AL-2: Republican mayor of Dothan endorses Bobby Bright for Congress. This would seem to indicate that the smart money is betting on Bright winning the election.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.politicalparlor.net/wp/2008/08/18/mayor-crosses-aisle-to-endorse-bright-in-al-02/

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

AL-2: Republican mayor of Dothan endorses Bobby Bright for Congress. This would seem to indicate that the smart money is betting on Bright winning the election.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.politicalparlor.net/wp/2008/08/18/mayor-crosses-aisle-to-endorse-bright-in-al-02/

Also a sign that the GOP primary wounds have not healed.