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Author Topic: Last night's Rassmussen poll results should thrill Democrats  (Read 4897 times)
agcatter
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« on: September 05, 2004, 12:07:21 pm »
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Bush apparently got slaughtered in last night's polling.  Bush's lead dopped from 4.1 to 1.2 over in the three day rolling average.  Means the Bush bounce was not that big and lasted almost no time at all.  

Only Vorlon knows how to calculate the one day sample, but Bush's hit last night must have been substantial to say the least.

Combine that with the severe overpolling of Republicans by Time and Newsweek and it's apparent that there's been no turn in the race after all.  A small Bush bump that evaporated almost immediately.

See, I am a partisan, but I am a very realistic partisan.  Kerry is looking pretty decent at this point.  Unfortunate for our side, but oh well.
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A18
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« Reply #1 on: September 05, 2004, 12:11:40 pm »
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Doesn't affect my prediction. I've always said it will cut one way or another.

I think Kerry's in terrible shape. He doesn't have anything positive except an overpriced health care proposal he knows he would never be able to get through Congress.
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« Reply #2 on: September 05, 2004, 12:16:51 pm »
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I might add that given the hard party ID weighting used by Rasmussen, a 3 point drop in one night is VERY large.
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« Reply #3 on: September 05, 2004, 12:17:18 pm »
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Doesn't affect my prediction. I've always said it will cut one way or another.

I think Kerry's in terrible shape. He doesn't have anything positive except an overpriced health care proposal he knows he would never be able to get through Congress.

Energy plan?
Plan to create 10 million jobs?
Raising minimum wage?
Cutting taxes for the middle class?
Cutting taxes for corporations, and paying for them by cutting down on loopholes?
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agcatter
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« Reply #4 on: September 05, 2004, 12:19:41 pm »
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I guess with the way the Rassmussen poll is structured neither side is going to get any breathing room in this particular poll.
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« Reply #5 on: September 05, 2004, 12:22:08 pm »
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I might add that given the hard party ID weighting used by Rasmussen, a 3 point drop in one night is VERY large.
Happened before, though, IIRC. Basically what's got to happen for that is one poll that's bad one way being replaced by a poll that's bad the other way.
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I may conceivably reconsider.

Knowing me it's more likely than not.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #6 on: September 05, 2004, 12:27:02 pm »
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See, I am a partisan, but I am a very realistic partisan.  
You get 5 Brownie Points. Smiley
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I may conceivably reconsider.

Knowing me it's more likely than not.
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« Reply #7 on: September 05, 2004, 12:29:57 pm »
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Quote
Energy plan?
Plan to create 10 million jobs?
Raising minimum wage?
Cutting taxes for the middle class?
Cutting taxes for corporations, and paying for them by cutting down on loopholes?

Kerry has no energy plan. He just talks about it as if he does.
Raising minimum wage can't get through Congress either, and is terrible for the economy; eliminates jobs
He has no plan to create 10 million jobs; raising taxes on the top income brackets is one of the best ways to slow growth of small businesses who pay personal income taxes because of the way they're set up
Bush already cut taxes for the middle class; class warfare = BS
Cutting taxes on corporations is a good idea; closing loopholes means it isn't a tax cut, because they're still paying it
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Giant Saguaro
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« Reply #8 on: September 05, 2004, 12:30:15 pm »
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You may well be right on, Agcat, but like we said with the Time and Newsweek polls, I'm going to wait for a credible poll to offer a read on the bounce before I make any judgments. besides, no one has even hit 50% yet at Rasmussen. I think he's awfully rigid in his sampling or weighting or whatever one calls it to allow for a sustained bounce or lack thereof by either. It seems mini bounces roll on and roll off pretty frequently at Rasmussen. We'll see.
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« Reply #9 on: September 05, 2004, 12:33:01 pm »
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Yeah, it'll be interesting to see what Gallup comes up with.
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« Reply #10 on: September 05, 2004, 12:33:20 pm »
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I agree Cactus that with Rasmussen's hard party weight, it's tough to move out very far.  The Gallup should give us a better view in the next couple of days.

Paging the Vorlon...
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #11 on: September 05, 2004, 01:29:52 pm »
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I agree Cactus that with Rasmussen's hard party weight, it's tough to move out very far.  The Gallup should give us a better view in the next couple of days.

Paging the Vorlon...

A "Hard Weight" by party Id had advantages, in that is damps out huge changes, but it also has disadvantages in that during to the weighting, strange things can also happen if your party ID weight is wrong:

Here is an example.

Lets say we do a poll of 1000 people, and I will pick numbers that make the math easy to do, and since we are basicaly talking about Rasmussen, I'll use Rasmussen' 39/35/26 weighting formula

1000 people

Sample #1

=> 350 Republicans
          315 vote Bush (90% of GOPers)
          35 Vote Kerry (10% of GOPers)

=> 260 Independants
          130 Vote Bush (50% of indys)
          130 Vote Kerry (50% of Indys)

=> 390 Democrats
          351 Vote Kerry (90% of Dems)
          39 Vote Bush (10% of Dems)

In this sample, since the actual party ID of the sample matches the weighting assumption, the weights do not change the result which in this sample is:

Bush 315 + 130 + 39 => 484 => 48.4%
Kerry 35 + 130 + 351 => 516 => 51.6%

Kerry leads by 3.2%

Now let's say there is a high publicity event in the campaign that a lot of people watch (Say, maybe a convention...?)

And in our sample the following happens:

Among the 390 Democrats:

20 of the Democrats, who were ALREADY supporting Bush say "You know, I am really a Republican... and thus now self identify as GOP in a poll, remember, these folks DID NOT change their vote, just their party ID

In addition, 10 Democrats actually do change their vote, and decide to vote Bush, but still call themselves Democrats

Our sample of what was 390 Democrats now looks like this:

370 Democrats (20 now call themselves GOP, so 390-20)
          341 vote for Kerry (351 - 10 who switched vote) (92.16%)
          29 vote for BUsh (10 new for Bush minus the 20 party  switchers) (7.84%)

Among the 260 Independants, the following happens to the sample:

20 Independants, who we already voting for Bush, and hence have not changed their actual vote, now say "You know, I actually am a republican", and thus self Identify as GOP

Our Independant sample now looks like this:

          240 Independants (20 now call themselves GOP)
          130 Independants continue to support Kerry (54.16%)
          110 Independants continue support Bush (130 original - 20 who now self indentify as GOP) (45.84%)

Note that even though not a single voting intention actually changed among these 260 people, Kerry nop "leads" by 8.32% among independants, because 20 of the independants now self identify as GOP

And to keep things simple, lets say nothing happened to the original sample of 350 GOPers other than the fact that 390 now self identify as GOP (The original 350 + 20 indys + 20 Dems who switched)
Bush gets his original 315 supports, plus 20 indys + 20 dems who ALREADY supported him but now self Identify as GOP - so the GOP sample now looks like this:

     Bush 355 out of 390 => 91.02%
     Kerry 35 out of 390 => 8.98%

This is now what the actual UNWEIGHTED support in this sample looks like:

Bush
     
          29 Self Identified Dems
          110 Self Identified Indys
          355 S3lf Identified GOPers

          Total Bush => 494 => 49.4%

Kerry

           341 Self Identified Dems
           130 Self Identified Indys
            35 Self Identified GOPers

           Total Kerry => 506 => 50.6%

In reality Bush has indeed gained 2%, narrowing the gap from 51.6/48.4 to 50.6/49.4.

Kerry IN REALITY leads by 1.2% now

But now look what happens when we apply the 39/35/26 Weighting formula:

Bush
      GOP support @ 91.02% X .35 weight => 31.86%
      Indy Support @ 45.86% X .26 weight => 11.92%
      Dem support @ 7.84% x .39 weight = 3.06%
      Total Support = 31.86 + 11.92 + 3.06% => 46.84%

Kerry
      GOP support @ 8.98% X .35 weight => 3.14%
      Indy Support @ 54.14% X .26 weight => 14.08%
      Dem support @ 91.16% x .39 weight = 35.55%
      Total Support = 31.86 + 11.92 + 3.06% => 53.16%

In REALITY Bush gained 2%
But because of the weighting to the wrong party ID, this poll shows Kerry's lead increased by 3.16%

Rather than showing a 2% Bush gain, it showed a 3.12% Kerry gain (!) ie the weighty process made the poll 5.12% worse, not better.

This is the danger of weighting: If you party ID is right your poll can be very accurate, but if your weighting is wrong, it can really blow up (a.k.a. Zogby... Smiley )

During times when party self identification may change (Conventions, Reagan's death etc) weighted polls can behave oddly.

Virtually all of the change in last nights Bot sample was in the Indys - which makes me think what I outlined above may have happened.

Bottom Line...?

It's a blip... Bush is up 4% ish, maybe 6 if you "unweight" the thing for a bit of "froth" due to temporary party ID shifts.

Give the poll a few days to settle down and we will see.. Smiley

Wait for the Gallup Smiley

« Last Edit: September 06, 2004, 02:18:21 pm by The Vorlon »Logged

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« Reply #12 on: September 05, 2004, 01:58:43 pm »
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Well, to quote Vorlon, Zell scared them away, Bush brought them back, but, and heres my two cents worth, is Kerry's 'meat and potatoes' fight back making everyone think again? Kerry's Friday night, post convention fight back was pretty good I'd say. Bush up by 2 points in total, same bounce as Kerry got. Keep an eye on the debates.
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« Reply #13 on: September 05, 2004, 03:04:55 pm »
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You really think so? I thought it was a big mistake, though I'm not a real objective source. Tongue

Bush ended his speech with, and I quote, a mission from beyond the stars to defend liberty and freedom for future generations.

...Then Kerry comes on and talks about health care or something.
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« Reply #14 on: September 05, 2004, 03:37:22 pm »
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Quote from: The Vorlon

Wait for the Gallup Smiley


[quote


When will that come out Vorlon?
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #15 on: September 05, 2004, 03:42:06 pm »
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Quote from: The Vorlon

Wait for the Gallup Smiley


[quote


When will that come out Vorlon?


They did a friday/sat after the DNC convention, I assume they will do the same for the RNC.

Today sometime I expect Wink
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agcatter
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« Reply #16 on: September 05, 2004, 04:00:36 pm »
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Perhaps the Rasmussen result today is somewhat skewed more toward Kerry today due to the fact that Wednesday night's sample (particularly stong for Bush) was dropped from the overall sample.                      
                                                                                     Hard to know exactly what last night's polling looked like.  Only Vorlon on this board can figure out how to compute that.  Since Bush's job approval also dropped overnight I doubt if it was anything less than weak numbers for Bush, but I suppose I can hope.

The information on party ID and the hard weighting of it makes me more and more dubious of this particular poll.

Still remember how good I felt when I saw Rasmussen's +8 when he released his final 2000 tracking at 1 AM the day of that election.  Boy, talk about a false sense of security.

Guess as Vorlon says, the validity of this kind of poll seems to be totally tied to how accurate the party ID is of the pollees being polled.
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« Reply #17 on: September 05, 2004, 04:02:10 pm »
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They did a friday/sat after the DNC convention, I assume they will do the same for the RNC.

Today sometime I expect Wink

But their post-DNC poll was wout of whack with all the other polls at that time.

So if they show Bush up 4 we know that he really is up 10.
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« Reply #18 on: September 05, 2004, 04:04:57 pm »
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Virtually all of the change in last nights Bot sample was in the Indys - which makes me think what I outlined above may have happened.

Give the poll a few days to settle down and we will see.. Smiley

Wait for the Gallup Smiley



While I believe in weighting of polls (otherwise you get too many screwy results), I disagree with 'hard weighting,' and most particularly with the 'weighting' which Scotty is using in his polls thise year.

As I have said before, Rasmussen was really traumatized by the results of the 2000 election (in which an abnormally high turnout for Democrats occured), and he had weighted his polls to reflect the turnout in that election.

I tend to agree with Gallup that likely voters are about equally split between the parties on a national basis.

If you reweight Rasmussen's polls on this basis, the national ones have been pretty reasonable (the state amalgamations are something else).
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Giant Saguaro
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« Reply #19 on: September 05, 2004, 05:19:54 pm »
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FYI - anyone interested, I'm not sure I'd hold my breath in wait of any new Gallup polls. The write-up on Gallup's homepage seems to indicate that there will not be a new one released till after Labor Day. Tuesday or Wednesday I might look for one.

Not sure that this is the best time for a poll (late summer, holiday weekend, after a party's convention), but I guess it's the bounce that we're interested in. Or negative bounce, who knows.
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« Reply #20 on: September 05, 2004, 08:57:16 pm »
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Still remember how good I felt when I saw Rasmussen's +8 when he released his final 2000 tracking at 1 AM the day of that election.  Boy, talk about a false sense of security.

Heh. I just found this (in retrospect) very funny article written just before the 2000 Election by Rasmussen:

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=20112

Best quote:

Quote
So, the next time somebody tells you this race is too close to call, feel free to laugh!

Yes, feel free to laugh at Scott Rasmussen...
« Last Edit: September 05, 2004, 09:05:00 pm by volrath50 »Logged

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« Reply #21 on: September 05, 2004, 09:01:22 pm »
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man, that was funny.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #22 on: September 05, 2004, 09:10:35 pm »
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"Gore's situation is a lot like that of the Washington Redskins in their Monday night football game against the Tennessee Titans. With two seconds to go, the Redskins were down by 6 with the ball on their own 20-yard line. They needed an 80-yard Hail Mary touchdown pass to win the game. Theoretically, it was possible. Realistically, it was not. The Redskins lost 27-21. Without the political equivalent of an 80-yard Hail Mary pass, Gore will lose as well."

I guess he threw the touchown pass but missed the extra point, and lost in overtime.
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CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #23 on: September 05, 2004, 09:16:02 pm »
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Scotty was unaware of the massive and very effective Gore get out the vote drive.

But for the extra voters that the Gore people turned out at the polls, Scotty's projections would have been right on the money, and Zogby would have looked like a fool.

This year Rasmussen is loading his polls with extra Democrats to try to avoid the earlier debacle.

As such, he is tilting his polls this year to the Democrats.
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« Reply #24 on: September 07, 2004, 11:20:38 am »
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Kerry and Bush are now exactly tied in the Rasmussen track.  Even discarding a weird Saturday sample, Bush can't be up by much more than 2% in the Sunday and Monday samples.
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