The Gallup Poll and the State of the Race....

[mddem2004]

Once upon a time I began to think that Gallup was quite off their rocker this summer, yet after some reflection and serious thought, I now believe they may actually be "Ahead of the Curve" compared to many of the other polling outfits.

That said,
I do look with anticipation to the next Gallup Poll after seeing the ridiculous Time and Newsweek post RNC polls -what a crock!

Analysing this race, just looking at Gallups numbers, we find the following:
LIKELY VOTER POLLING HISTORY

Kerry from May to the end of July held an average 1.8% lead over Bush in Likely Voters. In August alone we see the numbers now hold an average Bush lead of 3.3%.

REGISTERED VOTER POLLING HISTORY

Kerry from May to the end of July held an average 4% lead over Bush. In August alone we see the numbers now an exact tie.

BUSH JOB APPROVAL

Bush's Job Approval over the same time period was an average of 47.8% from May to the end of July. It now stands at 49.6%.

From just prior to the Democratic Convention to just prior to the Republican Convention we find those Likely voters indicating they were "certain" to vote for Kerry go from 43% to 39% just before the RNC. Those indicating they would "probably" vote for Kerry but might change their minds went from 8% in late July to 6% in late August.

Bush's numbers in the same time period went 40% in late July to 44% in late August for "certain's" and from 7% to 6% for the "probably's".

Now, these are ALL pre-RNC numbers. We'll know very soon the post RNC numbers for comparision.

What Does All This Portend For The Future
This is my take on things.

Although I can sympathize with my friends from across the aisle in their glee that Bush has FINALLY taken a lead in this race, that crown at his stage in the race comes with a few caviots.

Namely.....I am looking for three things in the next post RNC Gallup Poll.
1) Is Bush above 53%
Bush was at 50% in the last Gallup Poll among Likely Voters. In this competative race with so few undecideds IMO it will be hard for Bush to break 53%

2) Is the "Spread" between the candidates above 5% or less than 5%
Gallups historical polling shows that it is very likely that the candidate leading post Labor Day with a spread above 5% will go on to win in November. For spreads less than 5% it is still anyones race and even for an incumbant (maybe particularly so) a lead less than 5% post Labor Day is actually trouble....for an incumbant.

3) Is Kerry less than 47% post RNC bounce
Kerry has held steady in his overall support dispite some softening as indicated above. If he begins to fall short of 47% he will begin to lose any of the historical benefit derived from the late "breaking" of undecideds for the challenger.

IF Bush is both above 53% AND....I SAID.... AND the spread is above 5%, it is very likely that Kerry has been "Dukakisized".

However, I believe that is somewhat unlikely. Again.....I want to caution my friends across the aisle.

I seriously doubt that this polarizing incumbant president, that is struggling to maintain a 50% approval rating, with an economy that is still rated by 2/3 of the electorate as fair or poor as opposed to good or excellent........I seriously doubt that he has somehow fundementally "transformed" this race. Especially with the Swiftboat ads.

Gallups late August polling shows that fully 63% of Americans believe Kerry deserves each of his medals and the remaining 37% are split between "Don't Knows" and the "Didn't Deserves".

Further, 56% of those polled believe that Bush should have specifically denounced the Swiftboat ad's themselves.

The benefit to Bush I believe the Swifties had were not so much in what they said about Kerry, but it knocked Kerry Off Message when he needed to be On Message the most. That in itself does not change the fundenentals in this race.

And AGAIN.....as I have said in several posts before, close races do not look kindly on incumbent presidents.

If this race in the next Gallup Poll has a spread of 5% or less, Kerry is still holding his own at 47% or Bush can't break 53%, and Bush's approval rating is not obviously picking itself up above 52%......this is still anybody's race.

                               
                   

[The Vorlon]

Congratulations my friend... you have seen the light

Gallup, they have a few odd habits,

=>  like limiting their "likely voter" sample to folks who are actually likely to vote,
=>  and conducting their sampling in a way that actually reaches a representative sample - regardless of the time of year.

Such a quirky and odd firm... don't you agree...?

This poll is Vorlon recommended





PS.... didn't somebody on this forum mention that the GOP underpolls in BAD POLLs by 3-5% over the summer...?  Oh ya.. that was me back in April...

[King]

Gallup kicks ass...

[Monty]

Does Gallup consider what state a person lives in when determining how likely he/she is to vote?  I imagine an "unlikely voter" in Ohio is more likely to vote than an "unlikely voter" in Idaho.  If that makes any sense

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Hmmm, out of date reasonable polls (like Gallup) or up to date crap polls (like Time)

[mddem2004]

Hmmm, out of date reasonable polls (like Gallup) or up to date crap polls (like Time)

Last poll was Aug 23-25, next one I believe will be out Sept 7-9 I believe. I thought it important to quantify the pre-RNC polling data before the post RNC data due to come out for a "realistic" snapshot of the race  -  as opposed to the Time-Newsweek jibberish.

One other point I really didn't go into on Kerry's softening support  -  Gallup's data seems to suggest that Kerry's numbers began to soften before the Swifties became a household word, at least with Likely Voters. Some suggest the DNC actually rallied the opposition more than it did the Dem base. Maybe the same will happen as a result of the RNC?

[The Vorlon]

1) Is Bush above 53%

2) Is the "Spread" between the candidates above 5% or less than 5%

3) Is Kerry less than 47% post RNC bounce

IF Bush is both above 53% AND....I SAID.... AND the spread is above 5%, it is very likely that Kerry has been "Dukakisized".

52%

7%

45%

By your definition..damn close to  "Dukakisized".

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

1) Is Bush above 53%

2) Is the "Spread" between the candidates above 5% or less than 5%

3) Is Kerry less than 47% post RNC bounce

IF Bush is both above 53% AND....I SAID.... AND the spread is above 5%, it is very likely that Kerry has been "Dukakisized".

52%

7%

45%

By your definition..damn close to  "Dukakisized".

Of course, if Bush was at or above 53%, the spread would have to be greater than 5.

[Shira]

What are you arguing?
We don’t really know what Kerry’s numbers are, but it is clear that he is 5% down compare to where he was three weeks ago.

[MODU]

1) Is Bush above 53%

2) Is the "Spread" between the candidates above 5% or less than 5%

3) Is Kerry less than 47% post RNC bounce

IF Bush is both above 53% AND....I SAID.... AND the spread is above 5%, it is very likely that Kerry has been "Dukakisized".

52%

7%

45%

By your definition..damn close to  "Dukakisized".

"Kerry picks senior campaign aide"

"Democratic National Committee General Election Manager John Sasso will become the senior campaign staffer aboard the Kerry campaign plane, a key role in the final weeks leading up to the election."

"Sasso's résumé includes a stint managing the failed 1988 presidential campaign of Michael Dukakis."

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/09/06/kerry.staff/index.html

NOW I think Kerry has been Dukakisized.