Last night's Rassmussen poll results should thrill Democrats

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Bush apparently got slaughtered in last night's polling.  Bush's lead dopped from 4.1 to 1.2 over in the three day rolling average.  Means the Bush bounce was not that big and lasted almost no time at all.  

Only Vorlon knows how to calculate the one day sample, but Bush's hit last night must have been substantial to say the least.

Combine that with the severe overpolling of Republicans by Time and Newsweek and it's apparent that there's been no turn in the race after all.  A small Bush bump that evaporated almost immediately.

See, I am a partisan, but I am a very realistic partisan.  Kerry is looking pretty decent at this point.  Unfortunate for our side, but oh well.

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I might add that given the hard party ID weighting used by Rasmussen, a 3 point drop in one night is VERY large.

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I guess with the way the Rassmussen poll is structured neither side is going to get any breathing room in this particular poll.

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I agree Cactus that with Rasmussen's hard party weight, it's tough to move out very far.  The Gallup should give us a better view in the next couple of days.

Paging the Vorlon...

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Perhaps the Rasmussen result today is somewhat skewed more toward Kerry today due to the fact that Wednesday night's sample (particularly stong for Bush) was dropped from the overall sample.                      
                                                                                     Hard to know exactly what last night's polling looked like.  Only Vorlon on this board can figure out how to compute that.  Since Bush's job approval also dropped overnight I doubt if it was anything less than weak numbers for Bush, but I suppose I can hope.

The information on party ID and the hard weighting of it makes me more and more dubious of this particular poll.

Still remember how good I felt when I saw Rasmussen's +8 when he released his final 2000 tracking at 1 AM the day of that election.  Boy, talk about a false sense of security.

Guess as Vorlon says, the validity of this kind of poll seems to be totally tied to how accurate the party ID is of the pollees being polled.

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man, that was funny.