NC-Sen: DSCC spending $8,100,000!

[MarkWarner08]

The DSCC has expanded their initial $5 million ad buy to a $7 million ad deluge. The national Democrats are already running $1 million in ads against Dole. If Musgrove collapses in the polls over the corruption scandal, NC could replace it as the long shot cause celebre of the DSCC. http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewiStockNews+articleid_2502192.html

[MarkWarner08]

The latest DSCC ad uses humor to sting Liddy Dole.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=91l_h7UpQcs

I think this ad is brilliant. So far, the DSCC ads in Oregon have been mediocre and borderline intellectually dishonest. The MS ads have also been so-so. This ad, on the other hand, drives home Liddy Dole's ineffectiveness without going harshly negative. Great ad.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

What kind of drunken sailor drops $8,100,000 on a longshot?

[Josh/Devilman88]

I've seen a different ad attacking Dole by the DSCC.

[MarkWarner08]

I've seen a different ad attacking Dole by the DSCC.

They just launched this ad today. The "93 ad" has been running for a few weeks now.

What kind of drunken sailor drops $8,100,000 on a longshot?

A very rich drunken sailor. You can thank the incompetence of the NRSC finance department and the fundraising prowess of my man Chuck Schumer for the cash gap between the two committees. That gap gives Schumer the leeway to drop serious coin in long shots like NC.

Using humor is great ploy in a TV ad. It disarms the voter and allows the message to subconsciously permeate the voter's consciousness. The visuals of two old men supine in rocking chairs outside a rural market was well thought out. These everyman spokesmen reinforce the message about "93" and "92," the negative frame about Dole, with a smile, not a sneer. This ad should be effective with swing voters.

[Sam Spade]

How much does 5-7 points in NC cost?  Or is there a dollar figure one can attach to it?

[MarkWarner08]

How much does 5-7 points in NC cost?  Or is there a dollar figure one can attach to it?

Schumer seems ready to spend $8 million to bump her up to 47% or 48%. I just don't see how she can cross the 48% mark.

I wonder how many TV points that translates to. Reid Wilson wrote that Vern Buchanan just made a 14,350 point ad buy.

[Sam Spade]

How much does 5-7 points in NC cost?  Or is there a dollar figure one can attach to it?

Schumer seems ready to spend $8 million to bump her up to 47% or 48%. I just don't see how she can cross the 48% mark.

I wonder how many TV points that translates to. Reid Wilson wrote that Vern Buchanan just made a 14,350 point ad buy.

Vern Buchanan has money to burn - I'm not particularly surprised he wants to burn it.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

What kind of drunken sailor drops $8,100,000 on a longshot?

A very rich drunken sailor. You can thank the incompetence of the NRSC finance department and the fundraising prowess of my man Chuck Schumer for the cash gap between the two committees. That gap gives Schumer the leeway to drop serious coin in long shots like NC.

You can raise all the money in the world and it won't matter one lick if you spend it all stupidly.  Keep in mind that the "huge advantage" the DSCC has is needed to overcome the huge advantage that the GOP incumbents have over their rivals.

Gordon Smith has raised $7 million more than Merkley.
Sununu has raised $2.5 million more than Shaheen.
Coleman has raised $4 million more than Franken.
Stevens has raised $3 million more than Begich.
Dole has raised $8 million more than Hagan.
McConnell has raised $13 million more than Lunsford.
Collins has raised $2 million more than Allen.

Just running the numbers... $8.1 million makes up a full 17.5% of the DSCC's cash on hand.

(Fun fact: As of July 31, the GOP has raised $457m and Democrats have raised $417m.)

[Brandon H]

I wish the Dems would spend that in South Carolina's Senate race.

[TheresNoMoney]

The DSCC has plenty of money, they can afford it.

I know they think they have 5 seats close to locked up (VA, NM, NH, CO & AK) and have a few others they will potentially pour money into (OR, MS, NC, ME, MN).

They won't even need to spend any money in VA or NM, either.

[Lunar]

Obama has spent 2 million already by himself and that number is likely to increase as well.  Does not include organizing efforts which are probably substantial as well.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

The DSCC has plenty of money, they can afford it.

I know they think they have 5 seats close to locked up (VA, NM, NH, CO & AK) and have a few others they will potentially pour money into (OR, MS, NC, ME, MN).

They won't even need to spend any money in VA or NM, either.

I love this bizarre mass delusion on here that the DSCC has unlimited money and that the Republicans have none.

[MarkWarner08]

The DSCC has plenty of money, they can afford it.

I know they think they have 5 seats close to locked up (VA, NM, NH, CO & AK) and have a few others they will potentially pour money into (OR, MS, NC, ME, MN).

They won't even need to spend any money in VA or NM, either.

I love this bizarre mass delusion on here that the DSCC has unlimited money and that the Republicans have none.

Moderate, I get  it. Once the RNC concludes that McCain can't win, they'll shift their IEs to help in Senate races -- just like they did after Dole bombed in '96.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

The DSCC has plenty of money, they can afford it.

I know they think they have 5 seats close to locked up (VA, NM, NH, CO & AK) and have a few others they will potentially pour money into (OR, MS, NC, ME, MN).

They won't even need to spend any money in VA or NM, either.

I love this bizarre mass delusion on here that the DSCC has unlimited money and that the Republicans have none.

Moderate, I get  it. Once the RNC concludes that McCain can't win, they'll shift their IEs to help in Senate races -- just like they did after Dole bombed in '96.

Well, no, it's not that.

It's the fact that the DSCC's cash lead is pretty much equivalent to the collective GOP incumbents' cash lead.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Wonderful! First Obama spent $5 million in Florida for nothing and 1.1 million in Georgia. Please spend 8.1 million or more in this race! You have unlimited funds and the Republicans have NOTHING AT ALL! How about go after South Carolina or Saxby's seat in Georgia?

[Associate Justice PiT]

Wonderful! First Obama spent $5 million in Florida for nothing and 1.1 million in Georgia. Please spend 8.1 million or more in this race! You have unlimited funds and the Republicans have NOTHING AT ALL! How about go after South Carolina or Saxby's seat in Georgia?

     I heard that there's not one but TWO senate seats up this year in Wyoming! The Dems better drop $10 million there to make sure they get both of them!

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Wonderful! First Obama spent $5 million in Florida for nothing and 1.1 million in Georgia. Please spend 8.1 million or more in this race! You have unlimited funds and the Republicans have NOTHING AT ALL! How about go after South Carolina or Saxby's seat in Georgia?

The DSCC beat you to it!  Take that, Saxby Chambliss!

Seriously, I have never seen such piss-poor political budgeting.  If Democrats come one or two points short in Oregon or New Hampshire or Colorado, it's going to be a really sobering lesson to go back over the books and see how much that they wasted a good ten million before September in states that are almost guaranteed to be outside five points (and in the case of Georgia, probably even fifteen).

Yeah, I mean, you're supposed to go after long shots here and there, but you're not supposed to invest a significant portion of your budget into them before Labor Day.

[TheresNoMoney]

I love this bizarre mass delusion on here that the DSCC has unlimited money and that the Republicans have none.

I never said that. But they do have enough money to seriously contest 8-10 seats, especially considering none of them are in really expensive states like NY, CA, FL, or PA.

How much does it really cost to advertise in places like AK, OR, ME, MS, or NC? Really not that much.

[Josh/Devilman88]

It shows that they are trying the 50 state game, it can't hurt, it makes the RNC spend money it races they normally wouldn't

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

It shows that they are trying the 50 state game, it can't hurt, it makes the RNC spend money it races they normally wouldn't

It can hurt, and the RNC won't be investing a single dime in most of these races because the GOP incumbents are already flush with more cash than the Democrats should be willing to match.

[MarkWarner08]

It shows that they are trying the 50 state game, it can't hurt, it makes the RNC spend money it races they normally wouldn't

It can hurt, and the RNC won't be investing a single dime in most of these races because the GOP incumbents are already flush with more cash than the Democrats should be willing to match.

You're right. That is the elephant in the room. The DSCC's CoH = vulnerable GOP incumbents' CoH + NRSC's CoH. If you include the Democratic challengers' cash, the Democrats have a narrow money edge.

But slim money edge should not lead them to spend coin in GA, when OR and MN may be slipping away. I  sometimes worry that my man Schumer's white whale is the 60 seat mark. If the Ds get to 58 or 59, they can still place on Specter and Snowe to vote for the EFCA.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Oh, and to add to my other list, Wicker leads Musgrove by over $2,000,000 CoH.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Shhhh. Let the Democrats think they have a tremendous advantage. I can assure you the NRSC won't spend much at all in NC because Dole is pretty safe.

[DownWithTheLeft]

The latest DSCC ad uses humor to sting Liddy Dole.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=91l_h7UpQcs

I think this ad is brilliant. So far, the DSCC ads in Oregon have been mediocre and borderline intellectually dishonest. The MS ads have also been so-so. This ad, on the other hand, drives home Liddy Dole's ineffectiveness without going harshly negative. Great ad.

Just a question, where can I find a list of these effectiveness ratings?  Something tells me Frank Lautenberg might be Numero Cien