Obama campaign scraps IN & GA from their battleground list

[Tender Branson]

or so it seems:

CHICAGO -- Today the Obama campaign announced a new TV ad focused on the economy to air beginning Thursday in 16 battleground states. The new ad entitled Book highlights Obama's plan to break with the failing economic policies of the past eight years and put America's middle class first. The ad will run in AK, CO, FL, IA, MI, MO, MT, NM, NV, NH, NC, ND, OH, PA, VA, and WI.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7KYSeGl4bks

...

Is it because of unfavorable public polling in GA and internal polling in IN, or because he'll pick Bayh and the state receives "Special Treatment" later on ... ?

[Grad Students are the Worst]

I don't know why he'd wait to be advertising in Indiana.  I assume internal polls just look bad for him there.  This is also a very good sign that it's not Bayh, IMHO.

GA was ridiculous and someone at the Obama campaign should be humiliated by that mistake.

[MODU]

Or, maybe their internal financial projections are showing a dip in donations, and they'd rather save some of their funds just in case.

[Wrecking Ball and Chain]

This made me happy, because he should've never been spending in Georgia and it lessens the chances of Bayh.

[Lunar]

They also added Wisconsin.

Interesting.

[Lunar]

Obama was seen filming a high-quality commercial with Bayh during his visit to Elkhart last week.  Maybe he's saving his next big ad buy in Indiana to be that commercial?  Not sure.

[Sam Spade]

GA - I never understood.  IN - we need to get some polling there.

[MarkWarner08]

Is this a sign that Obama is saying bye to Bayh as VP?

[Wrecking Ball and Chain]

Is this a sign that Obama is saying bye to Bayh as VP?

GOD I HOPE SO

[Lіef]

GA I don't really care about. It was always a super longshot. However, I still think Obama has a shot in Indiana, until a Rasmussen poll comes out showing McCain far ahead or something.

[Gravis Marketing]

Is this a sign that Obama is saying bye to Bayh as VP?

GOD I HOPE SO

Or maybe it's a way to make people think that, so he can regain an element of surprise.

[MarkWarner08]

Is this a sign that Obama is saying bye to Bayh as VP?

GOD I HOPE SO

Or maybe it's a way to make people think that, so he can regain an element of surprise.

A double head-fake, perhaps? I still have Bayh as the second  likeliest pick -- I'm sticking with Biden.

[WalterMitty]

has he dropped nebraska as well?

[Lunar]

has he dropped nebraska as well?

That's never been included in official states.  Back when they were advertising in 17 states, Karl Rove wrote an article about how it was actually 19 (I think), calling them out on Nebraska and Maryland.

Nebraska 02 counts as Iowa.

[Former Moderate]

Perhaps related, but I was listening to a story on NPR's marketplace about how the bad economy (read: slashed advertising budgets) and the Olympics (read: near 0 ratings for shows opposing the coverage) has lead to a perfect storm of ridiculously cheap advertising prices for political campaigns—as much as a 20% discount off the usual rates.

Hooray for more political ads in weirder places!

[Chris B]

This makes me wonder, more so than the night the VP nominee will speak is security-themed, if Joe Biden will be Obama's pick. Though it does beg the question of why would a film crew be filming footage of Obama and Bayh if Obama wasn't leaning in that direction?

[Mr. Morden]

As with the other supposed clues, I doubt this means very much re: Obama's VP choice.  You have to realize that *if* Obama has already decided who his running mate is going to be (and it's not a certainty that he has), then he hasn't told any more than maybe 1 or 2 people.  Any more than that, and it would inevitably leak out.

So if there was a meeting to decide which states to run ads in, nobody would have spoken up and said "Wait, we should keep running ads in Indiana because Evan Bayh is going to be on the ticket."  That wouldn't happen.  The campaign has to proceed as if the running mate choice is still completely up in the air.

So if the polls show that Obama doesn't have that much chance in Indiana, then he wouldn't run ads there.  If he picks Bayh as his running mate next week, they might reassess, but they're not going to factor the running mate into the ad buy decision right now, because you can't do that without revealing who the running mate would be.

[True Federalist]

I never understood why Obama was running ads in Indiana.  Georgia was always a longshot, but it was a plausible longshot, if Obama could pump up African-American voting enough while the white evangelicals decided to stay home.

[MarkWarner08]

Perhaps related, but I was listening to a story on NPR's marketplace about how the bad economy (read: slashed advertising budgets) and the Olympics (read: near 0 ratings for shows opposing the coverage) has lead to a perfect storm of ridiculously cheap advertising prices for political campaigns—as much as a 20% discount off the usual rates.

Hooray for more political ads in weirder places!

Interesting point.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

Early GA spending was probably a result of his utter domination there in the primary. I do expect him to do better than Kerry there but it isn't a winnable state. The same goes MS which people were buzzing about for a little while due to some close polls.

We need some public polling in IN badly. My best guess is that McCain has started to pull away in private polling.

[Lunar]

OOPS

Obama is just running a different ad in Indiana.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0808/Obama_Fix_the_economy.html#comments

[NOVA Green]

OOPS

Obama is just running a different ad in Indiana.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0808/Obama_Fix_the_economy.html#comments

Interesting.... it doesn't sound like he's completely ceding Indiana yet, but rather backing off a little while testing some new ad strategies in a state which should be more receptive than many.

[Tender Branson]

OOPS

Obama is just running a different ad in Indiana.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0808/Obama_Fix_the_economy.html#comments

Interesting.... it doesn't sound like he's completely ceding Indiana yet, but rather backing off a little while testing some new ad strategies in a state which should be more receptive than many.

That keeps Bayh and Indiana on the list. I just read that Bayh, Biden and Richardson will speak at the Convention on Wednesday, the day of the VP.