NV: Rasmussen: McCain leads Nevada by 3%

[Grad Students are the Worst]

New Poll: Nevada President by Rasmussen on 2008-08-12

Summary: D: 45%, R: 48%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Sam Spade]

hmmm..  Both this and VA don't fit the bump theory.

[Rowan]

Seems pretty realistic. Final margin will probably be around McCain +3.

[Rococo4]

agreed

[VP Duke]

Nevada seems to have shifted right this cycle. It's GOP +5 right now or about that.

[War on Want]

Nevada seems to have shifted right this cycle. It's GOP +5 right now or about that.

There is no explanation for this though, also I really doubt this race would slide 5 points for little reason. This is still a huge tossup.

[InsaneTrollLogic]

Organized Labor is growing in this state, Dems have the ID advantage and this state is overwhelmingly pro-choice. Maybe Obama just pisses them off.

[War on Want]

Organized Labor is growing in this state, Dems have the ID advantage and this state is overwhelmingly pro-choice. Maybe Obama just pisses them off.

I see no reason to how Obama would piss them off though. He is a western type candidate and has been outperforming Kerry in almost very state out here. Why would Nevada be totally different from Colorado when they have fairly similar demographics?

[InsaneTrollLogic]

I guess there are polling errors...Nevada could be fool's gold this election, though Colorado seems "for real". Maybe we are heading to another close election with Obama winning with Kerry and Gore's states plus Colorado. This country is still becoming more polarized, it appears.

[Aizen]

Nevada and Colorado actually don't have similar demographics. Nevada has undergone a lot of growth so it's hard to say what type of people are moving in for sure anyways.

[War on Want]

Nevada and Colorado actually don't have similar demographics. Nevada has undergone a lot of growth so it's hard to say what type of people are moving in for sure anyways.

Well its two most comparable states are Colorado and Arizona. I think that Obama is doing okay in Arizona considering its McCain homestate and of course he is doing great in Colorado.

[TheresNoMoney]

I think Obama will be able to squeek out a win in Nevada. Right now, he is only getting 79% of Democrats. Many of those 21% will come home for him, and Democrats now outnumber Republicans in NV by a few percentage points.

[Senator Sbane]

Another thing to keep in mind is that Nevada is a wonderful tax haven for rich,greedy californians. And what political party is affiliated with rich,greedy people? Yeah perhaps this poll is onto something.

[Ronnie]

You can't poll Nevada.  Period.

I expect the state to go to Obama by a whisker, but that may be just me.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Another thing to keep in mind is that Nevada is a wonderful tax haven for rich,greedy californians. And what political party is affiliated with rich,greedy people? Yeah perhaps this poll is onto something.

What party is affiliation with super-rich people?  The Dimmycrats.

Are rich, greedy Californian expats a demographic in Nevada?  Yes, but not anywhere near the biggest.

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Nevada seems to have shifted right this cycle. It's GOP +5 right now or about that.

There is no explanation for this though, also I really doubt this race would slide 5 points for little reason. This is still a huge tossup.

McCain is up by 4 or 5 in MO also another historic swing state.

Organized Labor is growing in this state, Dems have the ID advantage and this state is overwhelmingly pro-choice. Maybe Obama just pisses them off.

Overwhelmingly Pro-choice? Even Harry Reid pretends to be Pro-life. How is the state pro-choice?

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Missouri is really right where one would expect it to be.  Nevada, not so much -- it seems about 2-3 points more GOP than I'd expect.  NV should be competitive, but Obama should probably have the edge.

Regardless of what Harry Reid does, Nevada is indeed a pro-choice state.  Pretty much anywhere where 75% of the state doesn't regularly attend church, is going to be.

[Senator Sbane]

Another thing to keep in mind is that Nevada is a wonderful tax haven for rich,greedy californians. And what political party is affiliated with rich,greedy people? Yeah perhaps this poll is onto something.

What party is affiliation with super-rich people?  The Dimmycrats.

Are rich, greedy Californian expats a demographic in Nevada?  Yes, but not anywhere near the biggest.

I am not talking about the super-rich to whom tax rates don't really matter but those on the margins. Retired upper middle class people.... they vote republican don't they. Now I agree that they make up a small portion of the electorate but I wonder how many of them have moved there in the last 4 years. I would really be interested in the demographics of the people moving to Nevada but I do not even know if anyone keeps statistics like that. But I can definitely tell you that those areas around Lake tahoe in NV have some pretty rich people and it is growing. And perhaps they are now even expanding into Reno and Vegas. Perhaps not but we really do not know. I am just intrigued because this poll( and others) show that Nevada is trending republican. If it stayed where it was in 2004 that would have made sense but why would it trend right. Or it could be just sh**tty polling..who knows.

[MarkWarner08]

BRTD, do you still doubt the neighboring home state effect?

[Sam Spade]

Nobody continues to believe my statements about Nevada.  Maybe they're true, maybe they're not, but maybe some attention should be paid.

[Senator Sbane]

Nobody continues to believe my statements about Nevada.  Maybe they're true, maybe they're not, but maybe some attention should be paid.

What is your statement on Nevada?

[Sam Spade]

Nobody continues to believe my statements about Nevada.  Maybe they're true, maybe they're not, but maybe some attention should be paid.

What is your statement on Nevada?

Nevada doesn't like Southerners, especially the second term of Southern presidents.  Also, I note that Obama's trying to tie McCain to Yucca Mountain - Bush's constant and loud support of it (McCain's been playing around more on the edges) certainly had some effect.  Lastly, Nevada is still fundamentally a lean GOP state in my mind - it certainly is at a local level.

[Senator Sbane]

Nobody continues to believe my statements about Nevada.  Maybe they're true, maybe they're not, but maybe some attention should be paid.

What is your statement on Nevada?

Nevada doesn't like Southerners, especially the second term of Southern presidents.  Also, I note that Obama's trying to tie McCain to Yucca Mountain - Bush's constant and loud support of it (McCain's been playing around more on the edges) certainly had some effect.  Lastly, Nevada is still fundamentally a lean GOP state in my mind - it certainly is at a local level.

But why only Nevada as the one state that hates southerners so much? Are there other examples of this elsewhere. Or is this a case of them not liking southerners and Obama? Nevada does have a higher than normal white working class population( at least by western standards), so maybe that explains something.

[MarkWarner08]

Nobody continues to believe my statements about Nevada.  Maybe they're true, maybe they're not, but maybe some attention should be paid.

What is your statement on Nevada?

Nevada doesn't like Southerners, especially the second term of Southern presidents.  Also, I note that Obama's trying to tie McCain to Yucca Mountain - Bush's constant and loud support of it (McCain's been playing around more on the edges) certainly had some effect.  Lastly, Nevada is still fundamentally a lean GOP state in my mind - it certainly is at a local level.

Agreed.  If Dina Titus loses, I'll cite your Southerners explanation.

[The Ex-Factor]

Isn't this the only caucus state Obama lost in the Democratic primaries? Apparently they really just don't like him, and according to polling data it's as much of a swing state as Montana and Alaska.

Which is very hard to fathom. Seems the PUMAs are strong here, with Obama only getting 79% of Democrats.