AL-02/CSRC: Democrat Bobby Bright favored to win heavily Republican district

[Tender Branson]

Capital Survey Research Center (8/6-7,11, likely voters, MoE: ±4.4%):

Bobby Bright (D): 47
Jay Love (R): 37

Incumbent Terry Everett (R), 71, is retiring. This district covers southeastern Alabama, including Dothan and Montgomery. George W. Bush won 67% in 2004 here (CPVI=R+13).

http://www.swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do;jsessionid=3DDE11E2697235409C89D3B55D1DF397?diaryId=2769

[Tender Branson]

What happened here for such a wild swing ? Is Bright quite popular and conservative and the Republican widely unknown ?

[Verily]

What happened here for such a wild swing ? Is Bright quite popular and conservative and the Republican widely unknown ?

Basically. I'm not sure what Jay Love is like, actually, but Bobby Bright is very locally popular and a strong candidate. I doubt the result could be ten points wide for a Democrat here in a Presidential year, but Bright definitely has a strong chance of winning.

[Sam Spade]

A few observations:

1. The party ID in this poll is, well, "interesting".

2. This poll matches the showing of Bright's "internal" poll released sometime last week, I recall.  Love released a poll at the same time showing Love up 2.  Knowing my own beliefs about internal polls, when you have competing internal polls, assume that the result is probably somewhere in the middle - in other words, assume that Bright is ahead somewhere around 3-5 points.

3. The fact that Bright is up right now to me is not surprising at all (for a number of reasons - no need to detail).  My main concern, if I was a Democrat, is to remember where undecideds in these types of CDs tend to move (in one singular direction usually).  If Bright can eat into this, he will have a shot.