TN-Ayres, McHenry & Associates (R): McCain with a double-digit lead over Obama

[Tender Branson]

Excerpts from the polling memo to Lamar Alexander's Senate Campaign:

Based on his strength among Independents, Senator John McCain continues to enjoy a double-digit lead over Barack Obama in Tennessee. McCain leads Obama by 51 to 36 percent, compared to 53 to 36 percent last March. John McCain's favorable to unfavorable rating today in Tennessee is 59 to 33 percent, compared to 59 to 34 percent last March. (George W. Bush's rating in the state is 48 percent favorable and 48 percent unfavorable.) Barack Obama has a net unfavorable rating of 42 percent favorable to 47 percent unfavorable, compared to 44 percent favorable and 49 percent unfavorable last March. The McCain-Obama match-up is clearly a help to Republicans in Tennessee.

...

Ayres, McHenry & Associates surveyed 500 registered voters throughout Tennessee on August 10-12, 2008. The March survey was conducted among 600 registered voters on March 5-9, 2008. The party balance is typical for what we usually find in Tennessee: 35 percent are Republicans, 30 percent are Independents, and 31 percent are Democrats, with the remainder unsure. Respondents for both surveys were selected by random-digit dialing to ensure that those with unlisted numbers were included in the sample, and all confirmed that they are registered to vote in their county. The margin of error for the statewide sample is ±4.38 percent.

http://www.nashvillepost.com/news/2008/8/15/double_digit_leads_for_mccain_and_alexander

[Eraserhead]

SHOCK POLL

[CultureKing]

I actually thought it would be much worse than this. Still Tennessee and Kentucky will not be pretty for Obama.

[Lunar]

Say it isn't so!

[© tweed]

TN was a real back-and-forth horserace in 2004 if you are to believe Zogby Interactive.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I actually thought it would be much worse than this. Still Tennessee and Kentucky will not be pretty for Obama.

[Eraserhead]

TN was a real back-and-forth horserace in 2004 if you are to believe Zogby Interactive.

You're not to though.

[agcatter]

I'd say this poll is dead on.  If you'll remember, Bush beat Kerry by 14 1/2 pts in 2004.  In spite of all the "South is racist" that goes around, I don't expect Obama to do any worse than Kerry among southern whites than did Kerry.  It would be hard to get much lower than did Kerry in the South.

[Beet]

Any poll showing Obama at 40 in West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee or Arkansas is good news for him... this poll, is not. McCain's numbers just means people aren't excited about him. Kerry got 42.5 in Tennessee, and if Obama can do that it will be a very good result for him.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Any poll showing Obama at 40 in West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee or Arkansas is good news for him... this poll, is not. McCain's numbers just means people aren't excited about him. Kerry got 42.5 in Tennessee, and if Obama can do that it will be a very good result for him.

I agree - I think Obama will get about 42%-43% of the vote in Tennessee.  Bush's approval rating is clearly not 48%-48%, and I wouldn't be surprised if Obama had a small (insignificant) net favourable rating in Tennessee either.  To be honest, Obama being down by 15% in a GOP internal is good news for him.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Again, why couldn't you enter this?

Database entry: http://www.uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?action=indpoll&id=4720080812002