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| | | |-+  What will be the closest state this year, part II		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: ...
New Hampshire   -3 (5.6%)
Pennsylvania   -0 (0%)
New Jersey   -1 (1.9%)
Virginia   -15 (27.8%)
North Carolina   -0 (0%)
Florida   -1 (1.9%)
Missouri   -3 (5.6%)
Michigan   -2 (3.7%)
Ohio   -2 (3.7%)
Indiana   -0 (0%)
Montana   -0 (0%)
Colorado   -18 (33.3%)
New Mexico   -2 (3.7%)
Nevada   -4 (7.4%)
Alaska   -2 (3.7%)
Other (please specify)   -1 (1.9%)
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Total Voters: 54

Author Topic: What will be the closest state this year, part II  (Read 4165 times)
Senator Ben
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« on: August 17, 2008, 10:01:28 pm »
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Nevada was our last winner; at the moment, I'm saying Virginia.
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Quote from: The Mikado on March 18, 2011, 11:12:39 pm
Obama High's debate team:

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« Reply #1 on: August 17, 2008, 10:13:31 pm »
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Gotta say Virginia--it seems like it'll go right down to the wire.  New Mexico may be determined by less votes though.
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Senator Ben
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« Reply #2 on: August 17, 2008, 11:17:34 pm »
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Quote from: nini2287 on August 17, 2008, 10:13:31 pm
Gotta say Virginia--it seems like it'll go right down to the wire.  New Mexico may be determined by less votes though.

Perhaps, but Virginia will have the closest % margin.
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Quote from: The Mikado on March 18, 2011, 11:12:39 pm
Obama High's debate team:

"Now let me be clear...I...I...um...uh...now let me be clear.  I strongly condemn the affirmative in the strongest possible terms, and I am closely monitoring their arguments.  Let me be clear on this."
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« Reply #3 on: August 17, 2008, 11:22:16 pm »
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I'm gonna be optimistic and say Colorado, I expect the difference to be <1%.

I think Virginia will go to McCain by ~1.5%, unless there are crazy high black turnout rates or Obama wins nationally by 4+ points.
« Last Edit: August 17, 2008, 11:30:08 pm by Ronnie »Logged
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« Reply #4 on: August 18, 2008, 12:39:20 am »
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     Again, I say Missouri. Still, why do we get a new edition of the thread so soon? I doubt that much will change in such a short period of time.
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« Reply #5 on: August 18, 2008, 01:40:56 am »
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Quote from: PiT (The Physicist) on August 18, 2008, 12:39:20 am
     Again, I say Missouri. Still, why do we get a new edition of the thread so soon? I doubt that much will change in such a short period of time.

You'd have to be awfully pessimistic to say MO will be the closest state.  What makes you think that Obama can make up for the massacres in rural MO?  Slightly higher black turnout rates in St. Louis and Kansas City won't cut it.
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« Reply #6 on: August 18, 2008, 02:12:42 am »
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Quote from: Ronnie on August 18, 2008, 01:40:56 am
Quote from: PiT (The Physicist) on August 18, 2008, 12:39:20 am
     Again, I say Missouri. Still, why do we get a new edition of the thread so soon? I doubt that much will change in such a short period of time.

You'd have to be awfully pessimistic to say MO will be the closest state.  What makes you think that Obama can make up for the massacres in rural MO?  Slightly higher black turnout rates in St. Louis and Kansas City won't cut it.

     Ever since we were massacred in 2006, I've tried being unrealistically pessimistic. That way, I'll be pleased by any outcome. Smiley

     To answer your question though, I'm not sure he'll be massacred that badly. Reagan was struggling in the polls through most of 1980 because he was viewed as a far-right ideologue. He only opened up a huge lead towards the end after he smoked Carter in the debate. Obama's not that good of a debater, but he's very charismatic. I strongly fear something similar will happen with him.
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« Reply #7 on: August 18, 2008, 05:53:47 am »
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The 2 most important states (IMO) may well be the closest: Ohio and Colorado.

I'm sticking with Ohio for this poll.
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Senator Ben
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« Reply #8 on: August 18, 2008, 10:12:22 am »
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Quote from: PiT (The Physicist) on August 18, 2008, 12:39:20 am
     Again, I say Missouri. Still, why do we get a new edition of the thread so soon? I doubt that much will change in such a short period of time.

The last one had been running since May.
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Quote from: The Mikado on March 18, 2011, 11:12:39 pm
Obama High's debate team:

"Now let me be clear...I...I...um...uh...now let me be clear.  I strongly condemn the affirmative in the strongest possible terms, and I am closely monitoring their arguments.  Let me be clear on this."
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« Reply #9 on: August 18, 2008, 10:26:21 am »
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VA & OH.....but I voted VA.
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« Reply #10 on: August 18, 2008, 03:15:58 pm »
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I'm going to be a contrarian and say MI.
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« Reply #11 on: August 18, 2008, 03:34:56 pm »
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I voted Virginia, which when decoded means I think the election will be close but Obama will probably pull it out.  NV is a similar one.  OH is probably the best vote if one truly feels it's a tossup.

J.J.'s pick means that McCain will win, probably quite easily actually.

Most people seem to be voting based on the assumption the race will be quite close.

If Obama were to win by, say 5%, which is not really a tremendous win at all, the answer could be NC or SD or MT or IN or something.  If McCain were to win by a similar margin, it could be PA, WI, MI, MN, OR... or some other state many may not feel is all that close right now.
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« Reply #12 on: August 18, 2008, 04:11:31 pm »
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Quote from: Virginia Democrat on August 18, 2008, 10:12:22 am
Quote from: PiT (The Physicist) on August 18, 2008, 12:39:20 am
     Again, I say Missouri. Still, why do we get a new edition of the thread so soon? I doubt that much will change in such a short period of time.

The last one had been running since May.

     I hadn't noticed. That makes sense, though.
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Senator Ben
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« Reply #13 on: August 18, 2008, 04:17:05 pm »
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Quote from: PiT (The Physicist) on August 18, 2008, 04:11:31 pm
Quote from: Virginia Democrat on August 18, 2008, 10:12:22 am
Quote from: PiT (The Physicist) on August 18, 2008, 12:39:20 am
     Again, I say Missouri. Still, why do we get a new edition of the thread so soon? I doubt that much will change in such a short period of time.

The last one had been running since May.

     I hadn't noticed. That makes sense, though.

Yup.
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Quote from: The Mikado on March 18, 2011, 11:12:39 pm
Obama High's debate team:

"Now let me be clear...I...I...um...uh...now let me be clear.  I strongly condemn the affirmative in the strongest possible terms, and I am closely monitoring their arguments.  Let me be clear on this."
J. J.
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« Reply #14 on: August 18, 2008, 05:46:28 pm »
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Quote from: elcorazon on August 18, 2008, 03:34:56 pm


J.J.'s pick means that McCain will win, probably quite easily actually.




No I don't. 

I can very easily see McCain winning OH, but losing some states Bush carried in 2000. 
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J. J.

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« Reply #15 on: August 18, 2008, 05:49:35 pm »
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Quote from: J. J. on August 18, 2008, 05:46:28 pm
Quote from: elcorazon on August 18, 2008, 03:34:56 pm


J.J.'s pick means that McCain will win, probably quite easily actually.




No I don't. 

I can very easily see McCain winning OH, but losing some states Bush carried in 2000. 

I mean, I could see it too...(McCain falling big in the West, Virginia...etc)...but my question is...how often does a candidate win a state that the predecessor from his party failed to win in a closer election?
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« Reply #16 on: August 18, 2008, 05:52:24 pm »
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Nevada
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J. J.
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« Reply #17 on: August 18, 2008, 06:09:12 pm »
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Quote from: bullmoose88 on August 18, 2008, 05:49:35 pm
Quote from: J. J. on August 18, 2008, 05:46:28 pm
Quote from: elcorazon on August 18, 2008, 03:34:56 pm


J.J.'s pick means that McCain will win, probably quite easily actually.




No I don't. 

I can very easily see McCain winning OH, but losing some states Bush carried in 2000. 

I mean, I could see it too...(McCain falling big in the West, Virginia...etc)...but my question is...how often does a candidate win a state that the predecessor from his party failed to win in a closer election?

I could see several realistic possibilities:

Obama takes NH and CO



Obama takes VA



This is not a McCain sweep situation.

Obama/Bayh takes IN.
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J. J.

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« Reply #18 on: August 20, 2008, 09:52:44 am »
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Quote from: J. J. on August 18, 2008, 05:46:28 pm
Quote from: elcorazon on August 18, 2008, 03:34:56 pm


J.J.'s pick means that McCain will win, probably quite easily actually.




No I don't. 

I can very easily see McCain winning OH, but losing some states Bush carried in 2000. 
you picked Michigan, not Ohio.  If Michigan is the closest state, McCain will win the election.  I am not suggesting that is YOUR opinion.  I'm stating MY opinion.  You could disagree but I doubt if you are picking Michigan to be the closest state that you think say, North Carolina will be a nailbiter, or even Virginia.

EDIT:  I guess I just personally doubt mccain can compete in MI and NOT carry CO, VA, OH, etc.
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« Reply #19 on: August 20, 2008, 09:54:53 am »
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I say PA, MI, and OH are all decided by <1%

VA goes McCain by 3-5%, NV and CO decided by less than 2%
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« Reply #20 on: August 20, 2008, 10:10:09 am »
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Quote from: elcorazon on August 20, 2008, 09:52:44 am
Quote from: J. J. on August 18, 2008, 05:46:28 pm
Quote from: elcorazon on August 18, 2008, 03:34:56 pm


J.J.'s pick means that McCain will win, probably quite easily actually.




No I don't. 

I can very easily see McCain winning OH, but losing some states Bush carried in 2000. 
you picked Michigan, not Ohio.  If Michigan is the closest state, McCain will win the election.  I am not suggesting that is YOUR opinion.  I'm stating MY opinion.  You could disagree but I doubt if you are picking Michigan to be the closest state that you think say, North Carolina will be a nailbiter, or even Virginia.

EDIT:  I guess I just personally doubt mccain can compete in MI and NOT carry CO, VA, OH, etc.

I think OH is a bit more solid for McCain than everybody thinks, but I can very easily see him winning MI while losing VA and CO.
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J. J.

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- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
Senator Ben
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« Reply #21 on: August 28, 2008, 11:44:29 am »
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Bump.
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Quote from: The Mikado on March 18, 2011, 11:12:39 pm
Obama High's debate team:

"Now let me be clear...I...I...um...uh...now let me be clear.  I strongly condemn the affirmative in the strongest possible terms, and I am closely monitoring their arguments.  Let me be clear on this."
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« Reply #22 on: August 28, 2008, 11:45:30 am »
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Colorado or Virginia.
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Senator Ben
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« Reply #23 on: August 30, 2008, 12:34:56 pm »
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Palin probably takes Alaska off the list.
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Quote from: The Mikado on March 18, 2011, 11:12:39 pm
Obama High's debate team:

"Now let me be clear...I...I...um...uh...now let me be clear.  I strongly condemn the affirmative in the strongest possible terms, and I am closely monitoring their arguments.  Let me be clear on this."
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« Reply #24 on: August 31, 2008, 03:18:00 pm »
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Florida. But unlike 2000, the fate of the nation won't be hanging in the balance as we await the results.


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Happy  Campaign 2012,

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