What will be the closest state this year, part II

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Nevada was our last winner; at the moment, I'm saying Virginia.

[nini2287]

Gotta say Virginia--it seems like it'll go right down to the wire.  New Mexico may be determined by less votes though.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Gotta say Virginia--it seems like it'll go right down to the wire.  New Mexico may be determined by less votes though.

Perhaps, but Virginia will have the closest % margin.

[Ronnie]

I'm gonna be optimistic and say Colorado, I expect the difference to be <1%.

I think Virginia will go to McCain by ~1.5%, unless there are crazy high black turnout rates or Obama wins nationally by 4+ points.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Again, I say Missouri. Still, why do we get a new edition of the thread so soon? I doubt that much will change in such a short period of time.

[Ronnie]

     Again, I say Missouri. Still, why do we get a new edition of the thread so soon? I doubt that much will change in such a short period of time.

You'd have to be awfully pessimistic to say MO will be the closest state.  What makes you think that Obama can make up for the massacres in rural MO?  Slightly higher black turnout rates in St. Louis and Kansas City won't cut it.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Again, I say Missouri. Still, why do we get a new edition of the thread so soon? I doubt that much will change in such a short period of time.

You'd have to be awfully pessimistic to say MO will be the closest state.  What makes you think that Obama can make up for the massacres in rural MO?  Slightly higher black turnout rates in St. Louis and Kansas City won't cut it.

     Ever since we were massacred in 2006, I've tried being unrealistically pessimistic. That way, I'll be pleased by any outcome.

     To answer your question though, I'm not sure he'll be massacred that badly. Reagan was struggling in the polls through most of 1980 because he was viewed as a far-right ideologue. He only opened up a huge lead towards the end after he smoked Carter in the debate. Obama's not that good of a debater, but he's very charismatic. I strongly fear something similar will happen with him.

[Јas]

The 2 most important states (IMO) may well be the closest: Ohio and Colorado.

I'm sticking with Ohio for this poll.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

     Again, I say Missouri. Still, why do we get a new edition of the thread so soon? I doubt that much will change in such a short period of time.

The last one had been running since May.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

VA & OH.....but I voted VA.

[J. J.]

I'm going to be a contrarian and say MI.

[elcorazon]

I voted Virginia, which when decoded means I think the election will be close but Obama will probably pull it out.  NV is a similar one.  OH is probably the best vote if one truly feels it's a tossup.

J.J.'s pick means that McCain will win, probably quite easily actually.

Most people seem to be voting based on the assumption the race will be quite close.

If Obama were to win by, say 5%, which is not really a tremendous win at all, the answer could be NC or SD or MT or IN or something.  If McCain were to win by a similar margin, it could be PA, WI, MI, MN, OR... or some other state many may not feel is all that close right now.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Again, I say Missouri. Still, why do we get a new edition of the thread so soon? I doubt that much will change in such a short period of time.

The last one had been running since May.

     I hadn't noticed. That makes sense, though.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

     Again, I say Missouri. Still, why do we get a new edition of the thread so soon? I doubt that much will change in such a short period of time.

The last one had been running since May.

     I hadn't noticed. That makes sense, though.

Yup.

[J. J.]

J.J.'s pick means that McCain will win, probably quite easily actually.

No I don't. 

I can very easily see McCain winning OH, but losing some states Bush carried in 2000. 

[bullmoose88]

J.J.'s pick means that McCain will win, probably quite easily actually.

No I don't. 

I can very easily see McCain winning OH, but losing some states Bush carried in 2000. 

I mean, I could see it too...(McCain falling big in the West, Virginia...etc)...but my question is...how often does a candidate win a state that the predecessor from his party failed to win in a closer election?

[War on Want]

Nevada

[J. J.]

J.J.'s pick means that McCain will win, probably quite easily actually.

No I don't. 

I can very easily see McCain winning OH, but losing some states Bush carried in 2000. 

I mean, I could see it too...(McCain falling big in the West, Virginia...etc)...but my question is...how often does a candidate win a state that the predecessor from his party failed to win in a closer election?

I could see several realistic possibilities:

Obama takes NH and CO

Obama takes VA

This is not a McCain sweep situation.

Obama/Bayh takes IN.

[elcorazon]

J.J.'s pick means that McCain will win, probably quite easily actually.

No I don't. 

I can very easily see McCain winning OH, but losing some states Bush carried in 2000. 

you picked Michigan, not Ohio.  If Michigan is the closest state, McCain will win the election.  I am not suggesting that is YOUR opinion.  I'm stating MY opinion.  You could disagree but I doubt if you are picking Michigan to be the closest state that you think say, North Carolina will be a nailbiter, or even Virginia.

EDIT:  I guess I just personally doubt mccain can compete in MI and NOT carry CO, VA, OH, etc.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I say PA, MI, and OH are all decided by <1%

VA goes McCain by 3-5%, NV and CO decided by less than 2%

[J. J.]

J.J.'s pick means that McCain will win, probably quite easily actually.

No I don't. 

I can very easily see McCain winning OH, but losing some states Bush carried in 2000. 

you picked Michigan, not Ohio.  If Michigan is the closest state, McCain will win the election.  I am not suggesting that is YOUR opinion.  I'm stating MY opinion.  You could disagree but I doubt if you are picking Michigan to be the closest state that you think say, North Carolina will be a nailbiter, or even Virginia.

EDIT:  I guess I just personally doubt mccain can compete in MI and NOT carry CO, VA, OH, etc.

I think OH is a bit more solid for McCain than everybody thinks, but I can very easily see him winning MI while losing VA and CO.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Bump.

[exopolitician]

Colorado or Virginia.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Palin probably takes Alaska off the list.

[Punditty]

Florida. But unlike 2000, the fate of the nation won't be hanging in the balance as we await the results.


Punditty
http://www.allvoices.com/users/Punditty