Wjat Gore states do you think could be trouble for Edwards/Kerry

[© tweed]

New Mexico is the toughest, that's probably solid Bush.
Pennsylvania Might be hard but we'll hang on.
Midwest is the battleground: MI, WI, MN, IA.
Oregon is tough.

[© tweed]

By blue, do you mean Bush or Kerry?

[© tweed]

Edwards : )  

No, I mean its the Democrats this time.  With the job losses there, I really don't see Ohio voters being too happy with Dubya this time around.  

Don't forget the high muslim population, Gov Taft unpopularity and steel tariffs

[© tweed]

Edwards : )  

No, I mean its the Democrats this time.  With the job losses there, I really don't see Ohio voters being too happy with Dubya this time around.  

Don't forget the high muslim population, Gov Taft unpopularity and steel tariffs

Michigan has the high muslim population.

Ohio has a high muslim population also.

[© tweed]

The muslim vote is not highly significant anywhere except NY and NJ which won't effect a close race.

Something like 85% of the 60000 muslim votes in FL went Bush in 2000.

[© tweed]

Lebanese communities are likely very GOP-leaning, and certainly Iranians. With Saudis it's hard to tell, they want us all dead so they'll either stay home or vote dem. Black muslims of course lean GOP.

I think bush has alienated a majority of muslims.

[© tweed]

I would guess the biggest trouble would be New Mexico & Iowa.  I still think the dems have a very good chance to win both of those.  So long as Nader or anyone else to the left of the democrats, doesn't run, I would guess the Democrats are able to hold the rest of the Gore states (barring major economic improvement or Osama's capture).  If I had to pick one other potential trouble spot it would be Wisconsin.

A new poll has us up 16% in wisconsin.

[© tweed]

Iowa is not going to be trouble because Kerry and Edwards are both highly popular there. Is that really true that Democrats are up by 15% in  Wisconsin? Beef seemed to disagree, but he's thinking of voting for Bush in November.

They're popular among the Democrats

Wisconsin:
Generic Democrat 54%
George W. Bush 38%

http://www.wisc.edu/uwsc/badg131.pdf

[© tweed]

I agree with Beef's analysis of Wisonsin.

In April 2003, Bush had a 12 point lead over Kerry and Gephardt in New York.