Wjat Gore states do you think could be trouble for Edwards/Kerry

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

I was pondering this today.  Although I think nearly all of them are solid blue this November, which do you think could be in trouble.  

First, here are the ones I think the Dems are going to win no matter who runs.  

1 Vermont
2 Massachusetts
3 Connecticut
4 Rhode Island
5 New York
6 New Jersey
7 Maryland
8 Delaware
9 Washington DC
10 Illinois
11 Minnesota
12 California
13 Washington
14 Hawaii

for a total of 189 I feel guarenteed Dem votes.

Now, with the different canidates.

If Kerry I think you can put Maine and Michgan back up, for a total of 210 almost guarenteed for Kerry.  That's Kerry's strength, the only 2000 Gore states I see being any trouble for him are Pennsylavnia, Wisconsin, Iowa, Oregon, and New Mexico.  

If its Edwards, it can be different.  I don't see anything really guaranteed for him up except those first 14.  As a southerner, maybe Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Maine, Oregon, and New Mexico will be tough.  But he looks much stronger than Kerry in the general.  

What do you think?  If Edwards was the nominee, will he have trouble in the Northeast and Upper Midwest, being from the South?  Maybe.  I think Kerry wins those easily.  

I feel Edwards strength will be picking up Red states.  Ohio, West Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Arizona...all seem more likely to go Edwards in an Edwards/Bush race.  

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

New Mexico is the toughest, that's probably solid Bush.
Pennsylvania Might be hard but we'll hang on.
Midwest is the battleground: MI, WI, MN, IA.
Oregon is tough.

Oregon had a sizable Nader vote, I think enough of those clowns will show up.  It'll stay with us.  

I agree, Midwest is the key this time.  Fortunately, I see Michigan going to the Dems, that's important considering its the biggest states there.  Ohio's blue this time, no question about it.  

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Edwards : )  

No, I mean its the Democrats this time.  With the job losses there, I really don't see Ohio voters being too happy with Dubya this time around.