Iowa is not going to be trouble because Kerry and Edwards are both highly popular there. Is that really true that Democrats are up by 15% in Wisconsin? Beef seemed to disagree, but he's thinking of voting for Bush in November.
Wisconsin:
Generic Democrat 54%
George W. Bush 38%
http://www.wisc.edu/uwsc/badg131.pdf
Bush was up by 9% last May - granted, that was Wartime Euphoria.
Right now there are two factors that you need to take into account:
1. This latest poll was taken at a time in which Bush was taking a beating nationally.
2. The media focus is on the Democrat Primary, and the Dem candidates have gotten a huge amount of airtime. Wait till Bush cracks open his warchest, and the GOP convention. I guarantee that 15% margin's going to evaoprate.
Right now I'd handicap it 55-45 in favor of Kerry over Bush, 60-40 in favor of Edwards over Bush. Still leaning Democrat, but not by any means safe. Like I said earlier, this is a state that's *trending* Republican.
