This Election Is (Probably) Over

[Gravis Marketing]

Yeah, he should roll over and play dead here in the echo chamber.

Exactly. Kneel before ZOD!

[emailking]

I watched the much-vaunted MSNBC "civil conversation" between Obama, McCain and the Reverend Rick Warren Saturday night.

That was your first problem.  The "Saddleback Civil Forum" wasn't on MSNBC.  That was Michael Phelps you saw in the Speedo Saturday night, not John McCain.

The event was broadcast on MSNBC (along with CNN and Fox). Swimming was on NBC, not MSNBC.

[So the Heroes Fall]

See where knee-jerk pessimism gets you?

[SLK75]

The only words I have for McCain is this, War Monger!  McCain wants to reinstate the Draft, he has stated this, Palin supports it.

Do we really want our kids being FORCED to fight in a war noone wanted in the first place? no!

Do we want the rich to get richer while we, the middle class are being force to pay higher taxes? NO  McCain is planning on taxing us, while letting the High classes not be taxed more, while Obama is planning on lowering our taxes and raising taxes on the upper classes.

Obama has set it up so insurance will be available for the middle class, McCain is CUTTING insurance for middle class, forcing US the middle class to pay more for insurance, the money will be sent directly to the insurance companies, it's stated in his plan on his page, go read the fine print there.

You want more?  go read the bills passed and many written by Obama to help the middle class, the veterans, help gun control, nuclear arms, etc on the Senate bill page, over 800 of them in the time Obama has been in office. You will see proof, it's all there.  Then compare it with the little McCain has done for the middle class. He has done virtually NOTHING for US the middle class and ALL for the high class, the RICH.

And Palin is following in his tracks, the only reason he chose Palin was to play the "woman" card, because Obama didn't choose Hillary, and the reason Obama didn't, and this was said on the View by Bill Clinton, and I believe it is the reason, was Bill said Hillary didn't want the job.  Rent The View for that day or go to the site and you can see it for yourself.

And because Obama didn't choose a woman, McCain did just to get the "woman" vote and get men who want to see a "pretty woman" to follow him, like the pied piper, in my opinion.

So there you have it, that's why McCain keeps mentioning his days in war camp, his time serving in the war, and why Palin keeps bringing up her son going to war, so they can prepare US for the draft being set up when and IF they ever get into office.  So if you elect them, be ready for the draft, because they are going to shove it through.

Obama has PLENTY of experience, definitely more then Palin, and if anything happened to McCain while in office, the US would be up the creek without a paddle, because Palin in no way would be able to lead us, we'd be overtaken in a second by another country with her in charge.

Obama won't let anything happen to us, and neither would Biden if anything happened, they are BOTH EXPERIENCED. 

GO OBAMA/BIDEN, SAVE US FROM THIS CURSE!! GOD BLESS YOU BOTH!!

[??????????]

The only words I have for McCain is this, War Monger!  McCain wants to reinstate the Draft, he has stated this, Palin supports it.

Go away, seagull.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

John McCain will be our next President..

Silly rabbit.

[Mr. Morden]

This seems like an appropriate circumstance to repost this (the thread linked to in my sig):

Here are my generic predictions for the 2008 election.  Each of these apply to the Democratic and Republican nomination races *and* to the general election.

Predictions:

There will be many commentators (both on this board, and in the media at large) who will read *way* too much into short term trends (usually derived from the polls), assuming that those trends will continue uninterrupted until the election "unless something unexpected happens".  It will not occur to the commentators that every election includes numerous unexpected things happening.

Many commentators will predict that various candidates are sure to win and that other candidates are as good as done *well* before it makes any sense to do so.  It will not occur to the commentator that the leading candidate is simply *favored* to win, and is not a sure thing.  When critics point out past elections in which the outcome ended up being much different from what people were initially predicting, the commentator will argue that "this election is different" for one reason or another, and that this is one election in which it does make sense to make such bold predictions well in advance.  Alternatively, the commentator will argue that while others incorrectly predicted those previous elections, the commentator in question is much better at predicting these things than most other people.

The actual election results will turn out much differently from what many of these commentators were predicting early on.  Once this happens, the commentators will argue that the only reason for the surprising election results is that there was some unexpected event that no one could have predicted.  Again, it will not occur to the commentators that every election campaign has unexpected events, and that they should have been more cautious with their initial predictions, and included more caveats.

A few months after the election, the commentators will pretend that they never made those incorrect election predictions.  In fact, they'll convince themselves that everyone could see the final outcome of the election coming from miles away.  They will argue that the actual election outcome was the only one that ever could have happened given the particular candidates who were in the race, and there was no chance involved whatsoever.

[??????????]

Sorry morden, unless something absolutely wonderful happens McCain is toast. I'm coming to grips with that awful truth. And sorry for the soon caps :


MCCAIN, WHY THE HELL ARE YOU TOTALLY IGNORING US HERE IN FLORIDA? WHY ? WHY ? WHY AREN'T YOU RUNNING ANY NUMBER OF ADS? WHY ARE YOU ALLOWING OBAMA TO RUN ADS 3:1 AGAINST YOURS? WHY ARE YOU RUNNING TOTAL CRAP ADS AND LETTING OBAMA RUN FULL MINUTE ADS ON ALMOST EVERY COMMERCIAL, EVEN AT 3AM?

QUIT ROLLING OVER LIKE A DEAD DOG MCCAIN AND DO SOMETHING.

Sorry, I'm just getting more pissed by the day.

[Lunar]

I think the above post is pretty reasonable.

I don't really understand it all, but it seems that McCain is being stretched.  I think the RNC has given up on him to some degree and focused on long-term rebuilding efforts in the House and Senate.

[??????????]

I think the above post is pretty reasonable.

I don't really understand it all, but it seems that McCain is being stretched.  I think the RNC has given up to him to some degree and focused on long-term rebuilding efforts in the House and Senate.

LOL. Sorry just angry. All that money I've given (even if it's little) and we can't get but 1 or 2 ads run in an hour compared to Obamas 5 or 6? WTF? Who is making the ads, where are they? blah blah blah blah.......damnit.

[Lunar]

Well, to play the devil's advocate, it helps to remember that Obama has spent more in Florida than any other state.  McCain's own highest-price state is Pennsylvania.

In these offensive states, you expect the challenger to spend significantly more than the defender.  It also depends on what TV shows you're watching and who both sides are targeting in terms of demographics.

I'm calling this election for Obama unless a significant event happens though.

[JSojourner]

See where knee-jerk pessimism gets you?

BRTD,

Yes, I see.  Pleasantly surprised.  That's not such a bad outcome, don't you think?

As opposed to being all optimistic and idealistic in 2000 and 2004...only to find myself curled up in a ball under my desk after the election.  (Not quite, but you get the idea...)

[Ebowed]

John McCain's fault for being arrogant enough to think Florida was safe GOP.

(An assumption I would have agreed with him on, but when you're running a presidential campaign, you can't make those sorts of assumptions.)

[Vsanto5]

See where knee-jerk pessimism gets you?

BRTD,

Yes, I see.  Pleasantly surprised.  That's not such a bad outcome, don't you think?

As opposed to being all optimistic and idealistic in 2000 and 2004...only to find myself curled up in a ball under my desk after the election.  (Not quite, but you get the idea...)

Don't worry about it I live in Texas where we haven't elected a Democrat since Carter (who was a southerner anyways) and I feel the same way you do.  But I should let you know that even here in Texas where live die-hard Conservatives, people like Joe Fags running the airwaves, there are still people who support Obama. 

So I look to the north where people in New England and Chicagoland have balls to form a union, to stand up more often for equal rights, are more open-minded, and I feel better that the masses will elect the right person for the job.

I feel that we have finally gotten over the hump of Cowboy-shoot-from-the-hip policies of the past. So the product of our frustration is Barack Obama which is, America's desire for change.  Although America is ultimately a conservative nation, I do not ignore their progressive populist hunger, this is why I' am confident we will win in November.

[JSojourner]

See where knee-jerk pessimism gets you?

BRTD,

Yes, I see.  Pleasantly surprised.  That's not such a bad outcome, don't you think?

As opposed to being all optimistic and idealistic in 2000 and 2004...only to find myself curled up in a ball under my desk after the election.  (Not quite, but you get the idea...)

Don't worry about it I live in Texas where we haven't elected a Democrat since Carter (who was a southerner anyways) and I feel the same way you do.  But I should let you know that even here in Texas where live die-hard Conservatives, people like Joe Fags running the airwaves, there are still people who support Obama. 

So I look to the north where people in New England and Chicagoland have balls to form a union, to stand up more often for equal rights, are more open-minded, and I feel better that the masses will elect the right person for the job.

I feel that we have finally gotten over the hump of Cowboy-shoot-from-the-hip policies of the past. So the product of our frustration is Barack Obama which is, America's desire for change.  Although America is ultimately a conservative nation, I do not ignore their progressive populist hunger, this is why I' am confident we will win in November.

I hope so.  Hell, I'd love to see us win Texas again some day.

But I am not sure the simple-minded cowboy thing is quite over yet.  Democrats must work effectively and feverishly to prevent folk from thinking a return to the bad old days is necessary.  If we win in November, this thing is ours.  And it's ours to screw up or improve. 

[So the Heroes Fall]

Something tells me JSojourner will never be a top political analyst. Not that he'd argue with this.

[TheresNoMoney]

Election after election, Democrats are usually more pessimistic about their chances than the actual outcome. Election after election, Republicans are more bullish about their chances than the actual outcome.

This thread definitely proves that. Poor JSojourner thought Obama was going to lose because of some trivial Rick Warren forum aimed at conservative evangelicals? Pretty ridiculous when  you take a step back.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Hey, remember some of the stuff Democrats were saying about Bob Casey in the first half of 2006?

[TheresNoMoney]

Hey, remember some of the stuff Democrats were saying about Bob Casey in the first half of 2006?

No, but I remember Phil saying that Santorum was going to win in the week or two before the election. Also remember Mitty saying the same thing.

[Gustaf]

I don't know...I was a member here in 2004 and I recall a lot of Democrats here predicting Kerry winning. I think it's a combination of Democrats getting used to losing for a while and Republicans having a really bad streak lately.

[So the Heroes Fall]

I don't know...I was a member here in 2004 and I recall a lot of Democrats here predicting Kerry winning.

A reasonable prediction. He didn't lose by much and the election was a tossup up until the end.

[© Tweed the Younger]

I don't know...I was a member here in 2004 and I recall a lot of Democrats here predicting Kerry winning. I think it's a combination of Democrats getting used to losing for a while and Republicans having a really bad streak lately.

~90% of Republicans thought Bush would win and Kerry supporters were probably somewhere around 50-50.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=11962.0

[JSojourner]

Something tells me JSojourner will never be a top political analyst. Not that he'd argue with this.

No argument here, BRTD.  I was convinced the McCain campaign would be able to pull of some of the same stunts that got John Kerry elected.  In some small self-defensive way, I note that I backed off my pessimism in the three weeks before election day.  But no question -- I was wrong.  McCain could not, or would not, do what I expected.  Which was...

One --  convince the voters of outright lies about Obama (as was done with Kerry) using a 527 ad blitz funded by mega-millionaires committed to the Democrats' defeat

Two --  Make an issue of something fundamentalist Christians and Evangelicals felt they could not ignore in several key states.  (Here, I failed to recognize the impressive trend among emerging churches and post-conservative evangelicals.  I thought it was too much to hope for...but evidently, balanced thinking is getting a fair hearing.  Either that or they just stayed home.)

Three --  Take advantage of race.  First, nothing makes me so happy as to say this did not occur.  People were not afraid of the black male, thank God.  But I also am so happy to report there seems to be no evidence that John McCain wanted to go there.  He does not have a racist bone in his body. Undoubtedly, being targeted by a racist smear generated by the Bush folks in 2000 was a factor in making such tactics distasteful.  The other factor being John McCains unswerving common decency.

So what a party I am having.  I was wrong. 

Now I am predicting more Senate gains for Democrats in 2010.  I need a healthy dose of Opebo to take me off my optimism!  :-)

[So the Heroes Fall]

This is what I, the more seasoned analysis saw wrong with those:

One --  convince the voters of outright lies about Obama (as was done with Kerry) using a 527 ad blitz funded by mega-millionaires committed to the Democrats' defeat

First, legally a candidate can't "use" 527s, period. And the main difference between Obama and Kerry was Obama had proven that he could respond to smears (as he did in the primary). Kerry didn't do as well. Obama is simply the better responder, something the Democrats improved greatly on in 2006 as well.

Two --  Make an issue of something fundamentalist Christians and Evangelicals felt they could not ignore in several key states.  (Here, I failed to recognize the impressive trend among emerging churches and post-conservative evangelicals.  I thought it was too much to hope for...but evidently, balanced thinking is getting a fair hearing.  Either that or they just stayed home.)

This was never going to happen, period. Fundie turnout maxed out with Bush in 2004. McCain could never top that, they'd never love him as much as Bush, especially with the environment so different. It'd be like a future white Democratic candidate trying to top Obama's black turnout. Not going to happen.

Three --  Take advantage of race.  First, nothing makes me so happy as to say this did not occur.  People were not afraid of the black male, thank God.  But I also am so happy to report there seems to be no evidence that John McCain wanted to go there.  He does not have a racist bone in his body. Undoubtedly, being targeted by a racist smear generated by the Bush folks in 2000 was a factor in making such tactics distasteful.  The other factor being John McCains unswerving common decency.

He didn't go there because it couldn't work. How can you run an "Obama is black" ad without backlash? The racists were going to vote McCain anyway. Luckily there just wasn't enough of them, and they were all rather concentrated.

[panda_priest]

When you consider how close 2004 was and how worse things are since then, it was inevitable Obama was going to flip a state or two.