What % chance is there that Obama doesn't pick Bayh, Biden or Kaine?

[Eraserhead]

In your mind, anyway.

I'll be hopeful and say 40%.

[NDN]

<40%.

I wouldn't rule out a dark horse but let's get real here.

[WalterMitty]

i hope there is a dark horse.

id say 30%

[Ebowed]

These jokes can't be the best they could come up with...

[Ronnie]

I hope it will be Bayh or Kaine.

Probably 50%

[Ogre Mage]

I would hazard a wild guess of 35%.  However, I could approve of Biden or Bayh because on an intellectual, rational level I can see what they would add to the ticket.  Biden as a foreign policy specialist and strong debater, Bayh with considerable executive and a decent amount of foreign policy experience.  Neither will make a huge impact but both would be solid choices.

But if Kaine is chosen my response will be, "So much for 'judgment.' "

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

These jokes can't be the best they could come up with...

If they are, Obama needs to fire all of his advisors; he's been pissing off the base enough already.

[Lief 🗽]

I think Sebelius is part of the short-list as well. And, the Obama campaign is notoriously good about keeping their information tight. There's a good chance that he'll pick none of these people.

[Everett]

These jokes can't be the best they could come up with...

At this point, I'm not convinced that Obama was the best that the Democrats could come up with, so the fact that these three suboptimal possibilities are circulating is sadly unsurprising. I wish that he would choose someone good (like Feingold, maybe), but that's obviously hoping for too much.

As for the question, eh. 20-30%, perhaps?

[they don't love you like i love you]

These jokes can't be the best they could come up with...

At this point, I'm not convinced that Obama was the best that the Democrats could come up with

Obama, Hillary or Edwards.

Yes he was, even if it was due only to the competition.

[Everett]

These jokes can't be the best they could come up with...

At this point, I'm not convinced that Obama was the best that the Democrats could come up with

Obama, Hillary or Edwards.

Yes he was, even if it was due only to the competition.

What is your point? Of course Obama would seem better by comparison when the only other potentially viable options really suck for various reasons. So the Democrats just couldn't bring it upon themselves to come up with better competitors. So what? That still doesn't mean that Obama was the best possible choice. I'm certainly not amused that this is turning into yet another battle between centre-right and crazy far-right.

[HardRCafé]

Obama should appease the Hillarycrats and choose Gov. Chris Gregoire of Washington.  Obama calls Gregoire "a Governor who's already making the kind of changes we need to bring to rest of the country."  An Obama-Gregoire ticket would save money in Washington that could be transferred to swing states such as Montana and North Dakota.

[skoods]

I don't think Obama is spending too much $$ in Washington. And if he's going to pick a woman he might as well pick Clinton since she'd help him in West Virginia, Arkansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. Gregoire only helps him in Washington, a state he was going to win already.

My prediction is 30%. I think it's going to be Biden. But I want it to be Bayh or Clinton. Oh well.

[elcorazon]

47.4%

Biden is around 25.4%
Bayh around 20.2%
Kaine might be near 7%


anybody think it could be Mike Bloomberg?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Between Sebelius, Wes, Algore, Doyle, Richardson, and McCaskill, I'd say all those add up to at least 50%.

[Bay Ridge, Bklyn! Born and Bred]

A few months ago, I recall an Obama interview (ABC, perhaps?) where he was asked about his running mate search.  He dodged the question, of course, but not before making a comment about how he was going to choose a running mate that will "bring the change that people are hungering for".

Then later on Meet the Press, Obama says one of his criteria for a VP is one who shares his fundamental vision of changing Washington politics and the direction of the country.   And he also said he was looking for "integrity" and "independence".

So far, all the names that have been recieving buzz do not really meet this criteria (except Kaine who is a pretty awful choice and Sebelius, who looks creepily too much like Hillary Clinton), so I'm still waiting to be surprised.

[Eraserhead]

47.4%

Biden is around 25.4%
Bayh around 20.2%
Kaine might be near 7%


anybody think it could be Mike Bloomberg?

No.

[elcorazon]

Between Jindal, Sebelius, Wes, Algore, Doyle, Richardson, and McCaskill, I'd say all those add up to at least 50%.

Jindal has zero chance to be OBAMA's Running mate.  HE's an unlikely choice for McCain but as a conservative who supports mccain, obama will not choose him.

[Franzl]

I say about 10%. I'm almost certain it will either be Bayh or Biden, and it's leaning toward Biden, as far as I can see.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Between Jindal, Sebelius, Wes, Algore, Doyle, Richardson, and McCaskill, I'd say all those add up to at least 50%.

Jindal has zero chance to be OBAMA's Running mate.  HE's an unlikely choice for McCain but as a conservative who supports mccain, obama will not choose him.

Er, not Jindal.  I was thinking of someone else.

[HardRCafé]

Gregoire only helps him in Washington,

I doubt even that.

[Bacon King]

75%

[Kaine for Senate '18]

33.3%.

[nini2287]

I'll say about 40%.  I don't think Bayh would be that bad of a pick, he's safe and doesn't destroy foreign policy credentials.  Overall, I think Blanche Lincoln would be the best choice, I don't know why she's never been mentioned at all.