Indiana: McCain leads 50-44 Survey USA
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Author Topic: Indiana: McCain leads 50-44 Survey USA  (Read 1352 times)
ucscgaldamez
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« on: August 19, 2008, 05:30:45 PM »

http://www.surveyusa.com/


Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 Indiana adults 08/16/08 through 08/18/08. Of them, 779 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 645 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the 11/04/08 general election. Indiana has 11 Electoral College votes. George W. Bush carried Indiana by 21 points in 2004 and by 16 points in 2000. Obama is from the neighboring state of Illinois. Residents of Northern Indiana see Chicago television. Evan Bayh, the Democratic junior United States Senator from Indiana, is a possible Obama running mate. At this hour, no running mate has been named, though within 48 hours that will almost certainly change.
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Rowan
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« Reply #1 on: August 19, 2008, 05:31:57 PM »

Where are all the Obamabots now?

SAFE Republican.
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ucscgaldamez
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« Reply #2 on: August 19, 2008, 05:33:37 PM »

I'm going to vote for Obama. But I don't think that he'll win Indiana.
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #3 on: August 19, 2008, 05:34:13 PM »

Where are all the Obamabots now?

SAFE Republican.

+6 McCain isn't safe republican...
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #4 on: August 19, 2008, 05:36:57 PM »

Where are all the Obamabots now?

SAFE Republican.

+6 McCain isn't safe republican...
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

For a state like Indiana, it's still a tossup.
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Rowan
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« Reply #5 on: August 19, 2008, 05:37:50 PM »

Where are all the Obamabots now?

SAFE Republican.

+6 McCain isn't safe republican...

Then in that case, MN, PA, IA, MI, WI aren't safe for Obama.
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #6 on: August 19, 2008, 05:39:12 PM »

Where are all the Obamabots now?

SAFE Republican.

+6 McCain isn't safe republican...

Then in that case, MN, PA, IA, MI, WI aren't safe for Obama.

That logic is faulty.  Those states have all shown Obama ahead in <4-5 polls in a row, with strong margins.  The last poll before this one had Obama +1; if three polls come out in a row showing McCain up by 6, it will be safe McCain.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #7 on: August 19, 2008, 05:42:50 PM »

Not the best result for Obama, but it's good to know that the state is still somewhat close.
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Beet
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« Reply #8 on: August 19, 2008, 05:57:26 PM »

Not the best result for Obama, but it's good to know that the state is still somewhat close.

It could bode well for Ohio.
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Verily
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« Reply #9 on: August 19, 2008, 05:59:29 PM »

Makes good, solid sense. Even though it's SUSA, which has been bad this year.
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War on Want
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« Reply #10 on: August 19, 2008, 06:12:58 PM »

Not surprising that Obama's lead has shrunk. If he picks Bayh it could push it up again 1-2 points.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #11 on: August 19, 2008, 06:21:43 PM »

Not to brag, but I feel I should mention this...

About an hour ago I made this post:

I do note that I give Indiana to McCain even though the poll that I'm using to calculate it is SUSA's Obama +1 lead poll.  If it were moved over to where I expect McCain actually is in Indiana - it would be Obama +1.36% in the PV. 

The number I had in mind using my PV formula and some guesswork was McCain 50, Obama 44.  Cheesy
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JWHart
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« Reply #12 on: August 19, 2008, 07:21:31 PM »

Where are all the Obamabots now?

SAFE Republican.

+6 McCain isn't safe republican...

Then in that case, MN, PA, IA, MI, WI aren't safe for Obama.

Um....no, they're not. (And I'm an Obama supporter.) I'd rate all as "Lean Obama" ATM, ranging from "strong lean" in WI and PA (due to the consistent high-single digit polling, to "slight lean" in MI.

Indy's hard to judge right now due to the paucity of polling, but if McCain's only +6 in what has been a decidedly "meh" polling week for Obama, then it's definitely competitive, probably leaning McCain.
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JohnCA246
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« Reply #13 on: August 19, 2008, 07:32:29 PM »

It's time to start trimming some fat and ditch the long shot states. Ohio + Colorado need our attention.  Don't let McCain outplay us there.  We must win there.
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #14 on: August 19, 2008, 08:05:25 PM »

Republican 42% (46%): McCain 82% (95%); Obama 12% (5%)

Democrat 36% (32%): McCain 19% (15%); Obama 77% (84%)

Independent 15% (22%): McCain 39% (51%); Obama 51% (46%)

Conservative 36% (42%): McCain 85% (85%); Obama 12% (14%)

Moderate 38% (43%): McCain 38% (48%); Obama 57% (50%)

Liberal 12% (14%): McCain 6% (21%); Obama 82% (79%)

(denotes 2004 exit poll data)

Top issue - the economy (45%): McCain 46%; Obama 49%

Dave
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Brittain33
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« Reply #15 on: August 19, 2008, 08:06:00 PM »


You mean, in the one minute and twelve seconds between the original post and your reply?
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #16 on: August 19, 2008, 08:08:06 PM »

It's time to start trimming some fat and ditch the long shot states. Ohio + Colorado need our attention.  Don't let McCain outplay us there.  We must win there.

Frankly, the economy should be putting states in play for Obama that otherwise wouldn't be. And Indiana may well be one of them

Dave
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agcatter
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« Reply #17 on: August 19, 2008, 08:22:52 PM »

Indiana was Bush +20.  Obama is doing about as well as anyone could expect, but the state is not going to flip.  Demographics just aren't there for that kind of swing. 
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Sbane
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« Reply #18 on: August 19, 2008, 09:02:59 PM »

Indiana was Bush +20.  Obama is doing about as well as anyone could expect, but the state is not going to flip.  Demographics just aren't there for that kind of swing. 
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Rococo4
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« Reply #19 on: August 19, 2008, 09:57:22 PM »

It's time to start trimming some fat and ditch the long shot states. Ohio + Colorado need our attention.  Don't let McCain outplay us there.  We must win there.

I would agree.  I hope they dont do it, but they need to stop with the bluster.  270 still wins it and they have a path to do it.  No need to for a state like Indiana.  if you get Indiana, then chances are youve won over 320 EV and it never mattered.
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agcatter
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« Reply #20 on: August 19, 2008, 10:07:23 PM »

I'm also really baffled by the money they have dumped into Indiana and Georgia.  They seemed to be determined to try and make two of the most solid red states into swing states.  That's no more possible than McCain dumping millions into New Jersey.  Money doesn't change demographics.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #21 on: August 19, 2008, 11:18:32 PM »

This is exactly what I would expect at this point. I still want more polling though, obviously.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #22 on: August 19, 2008, 11:38:50 PM »

Yeah, I think this poll is about what I would expect for Indiana right now, but let's wait for the Rasmussen poll that's coming out soon. Maybe he'll show what effect Bayh would have in Indiana.
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ShadowRocket
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« Reply #23 on: August 21, 2008, 09:06:29 PM »

This isn't really bad news for Obama campaign to swing IN, IMO. But when it comes down to it, the only way he'll have any real shot of turning IN blue is if he puts Bayh on the ticket.
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