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Author Topic: These polls are insane!  (Read 7783 times)
agcatter
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« on: February 18, 2004, 08:32:55 pm »
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Gallup has Kerry up 55 - 43.

Over the same time Rassmussen has Bush up 48 - 43 with a surge over the last couple of days.

Zogby's poll has Kerry ahead in the blue states by only 1, and Bush up comfortably in the red states 51 - 39. (this done 12th - 16th)

What the hell is going on here?  It is either:
1) a conspiracy to drive us political junkies cukoo
2) one or all of these polls are garbage
3) we have entered some political campaign twighlight zone.
4) all of the above.

Sheesh!
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #1 on: February 18, 2004, 08:55:47 pm »
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Gallup has Kerry up 55 - 43.

Over the same time Rassmussen has Bush up 48 - 43 with a surge over the last couple of days.

Zogby's poll has Kerry ahead in the blue states by only 1, and Bush up comfortably in the red states 51 - 39. (this done 12th - 16th)

What the hell is going on here?  It is either:
1) a conspiracy to drive us political junkies cukoo
2) one or all of these polls are garbage
3) we have entered some political campaign twighlight zone.
4) all of the above.

Sheesh!





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« Last Edit: February 18, 2004, 08:58:14 pm by NHPolitico »Logged

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TheWildCard
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« Reply #2 on: February 18, 2004, 09:02:42 pm »
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3) we have entered some political campaign twighlight zone.


que twilight zone music

There is a fifth demension beyond that which is known to political commentators
It is a dimension as vast as Ross Parot's ears and as timeless as the saying "are you really better off now then you were four years ago?"
It is the middle ground between right and left
between Electroal Vote and Popular vote
and it lies between Al Franken and Rush Limbaugh
This is a dimension of imaginationm
it is an area which we call... The Political Twilight Zone!
« Last Edit: February 18, 2004, 09:04:06 pm by TheWildCard »Logged
Harry
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« Reply #3 on: February 18, 2004, 09:45:46 pm »
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Just polls sampling a few hundred people and calling it a poll.  All rubbish for now anyway.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #4 on: February 18, 2004, 09:50:57 pm »
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I don't understand how Kerry can trail by 5% and lead by 12% in polls released the same day.
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agcatter
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« Reply #5 on: February 18, 2004, 10:02:09 pm »
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It's mathematically impossible.  Maybe the polls were taken in two different countries.  Or two different worlds in a parallel universe.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #6 on: February 18, 2004, 10:03:50 pm »
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It's mathematically impossible.  Maybe the polls were taken in two different countries.  Or two different worlds in a parallel universe.
Yep, because the polls conflict each others' margin of error.  Do you know what I mean?
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agcatter
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« Reply #7 on: February 18, 2004, 10:13:00 pm »
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Yeah, one of these polls has a bad sample, which one I have no clue.  I know polls are fluid this time of year, but fluid means fluid over time not poll to poll taken at the same time.  

These polls are supposed to to be within the margin of error 95% of the time.  Guess one of these must have been the one out of twenty times when they came up with a stinker.  Just plain weird.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #8 on: February 18, 2004, 10:17:26 pm »
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Yeah, one of these polls has a bad sample, which one I have no clue.  I know polls are fluid this time of year, but fluid means fluid over time not poll to poll taken at the same time.  

These polls are supposed to to be within the margin of error 95% of the time.  Guess one of these must have been the one out of twenty times when they came up with a stinker.  Just plain weird.
We'll see how the polls look tomorrow.
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Mr. Fresh
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« Reply #9 on: February 18, 2004, 10:19:10 pm »
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I choose #1.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #10 on: February 18, 2004, 10:19:52 pm »
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I choose #1.
A vast pollster conspiracy.
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Mr. Fresh
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« Reply #11 on: February 18, 2004, 10:22:57 pm »
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I choose #1.
A vast pollster conspiracy.
They are trying to confuse everyone so much to just stop and give up, and just let them tell us what to believe.  There is a good Third Rock from the Sun episode on this.  Remember when he goes in for jury duty???  Ya!
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agcatter
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« Reply #12 on: February 18, 2004, 10:23:04 pm »
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Maybe they want us to add each candidates' percentage in the two polls and divide by two.  It's Gallup's idea of giving us all a math problem for homework.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #13 on: February 18, 2004, 10:27:47 pm »
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Maybe they want us to add each candidates' percentage in the two polls and divide by two.  It's Gallup's idea of giving us all a math problem for homework.
That means:

Kerry 49%
Bush 45.5%
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agcatter
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« Reply #14 on: February 18, 2004, 10:33:16 pm »
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works for me

Guess we deserve all this confusion.  It's our punishment for following these things nine months out.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #15 on: February 18, 2004, 10:34:40 pm »
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works for me

Guess we deserve all this confusion.  It's our punishment for following these things nine months out.
We followed them when they were 18 months out.
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agcatter
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« Reply #16 on: February 18, 2004, 11:02:13 pm »
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Yeah, scary stuff.
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tractarian
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« Reply #17 on: February 19, 2004, 12:04:54 am »
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I choose #1.

Hard to say which poll is more reliable.  The Gallup poll (Kerry 55-43) was done over two days, Monday and Tuesday, among 568 likely voters.  The Rasmussen poll is a tracking poll of 1500 likely voters over three days. The numbers (Bush 48-43) reflect only one day of results - thus around 500 likely voters.

The latest UConn poll (Kerry 46-45) is definitely the most accurate, counting 1121 registered voters over two days.

Of course, in a couple of days these numbers will be ancient history!
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GOPman
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« Reply #18 on: February 19, 2004, 02:43:25 am »
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Polls are ok some of the time. But the problem with most of them are the fact that they are slanted to the left most of the time. Dems are much more likely to take a poll, and the ones putting out the polls are trying to make momentum for someone who is their favorite. The fact is, that the time to watch the polls will start in the summer around June 2004, and after Sept 2004 especially. I think you will see a dramatic shift in not only polls, but W's approval rating. Watch and see!
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California Dreamer
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« Reply #19 on: February 19, 2004, 03:58:06 am »
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the polls arent insane

Americans are insane. Remember the vast majority dont pay attention to things like those of us who would be on a forum like this do.

about a third will make their mind up in the last couple weeks and it will be based on what they ate that day, the latest mini scandals, and other useless stuff.

Remember that 60% of amercians thought we went to war in Iraq because Iraq was responsible for 9-11, something that even the President when pressed has admitted isnt true (even though he mentions terrorists and/or 9-11 every time he talks about Iraq).


I think all these polls are 100% accurate. A third of americans will vote the dem, a third will vote for Bush and a third are more worried about American Idol.

The scary thing is that it is that third that get to pick the president
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Comrade Sibboleth
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« Reply #20 on: February 19, 2004, 07:02:03 am »
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It's like Yes Minister...
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Richard Hoggart 1918-2014
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« Reply #21 on: February 19, 2004, 12:35:23 pm »
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The pollsters can bias the questions, something we'll never know of..and theres a good point on results being within MoE 95% of the time, considering how many polls are always out there.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #22 on: February 19, 2004, 12:39:26 pm »
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The pollsters can bias the questions, something we'll never know of..and theres a good point on results being within MoE 95% of the time, considering how many polls are always out there.
Good point.  In this election cycle from what I've seen though, Gallup leans right and Zogby leans left.
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Michael Z
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« Reply #23 on: February 20, 2004, 07:52:00 pm »
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Let's face it, polls mean nothing until September/October.
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zachman
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« Reply #24 on: February 20, 2004, 08:10:37 pm »
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Polls only indicate a change. The recent polls have been unreliable as to who is ahead, but it is clear public opinion has slipped for Bush and picked up for the democrats. Polls were wrong in 2000with Bush constantly ahead.
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