These polls are insane!

[agcatter]

Gallup has Kerry up 55 - 43.

Over the same time Rassmussen has Bush up 48 - 43 with a surge over the last couple of days.

Zogby's poll has Kerry ahead in the blue states by only 1, and Bush up comfortably in the red states 51 - 39. (this done 12th - 16th)

What the hell is going on here?  It is either:
1) a conspiracy to drive us political junkies cukoo
2) one or all of these polls are garbage
3) we have entered some political campaign twighlight zone.
4) all of the above.

Sheesh!

[NHPolitico]

Gallup has Kerry up 55 - 43.

Over the same time Rassmussen has Bush up 48 - 43 with a surge over the last couple of days.

Zogby's poll has Kerry ahead in the blue states by only 1, and Bush up comfortably in the red states 51 - 39. (this done 12th - 16th)

What the hell is going on here?  It is either:
1) a conspiracy to drive us political junkies cukoo
2) one or all of these polls are garbage
3) we have entered some political campaign twighlight zone.
4) all of the above.

Sheesh!

[TheWildCard]

3) we have entered some political campaign twighlight zone.

que twilight zone music

There is a fifth demension beyond that which is known to political commentators
It is a dimension as vast as Ross Parot's ears and as timeless as the saying "are you really better off now then you were four years ago?"
It is the middle ground between right and left
between Electroal Vote and Popular vote
and it lies between Al Franken and Rush Limbaugh
This is a dimension of imaginationm
it is an area which we call... The Political Twilight Zone!

[Harry]

Just polls sampling a few hundred people and calling it a poll.  All rubbish for now anyway.

[© Tweed the Younger]

I don't understand how Kerry can trail by 5% and lead by 12% in polls released the same day.

[agcatter]

It's mathematically impossible.  Maybe the polls were taken in two different countries.  Or two different worlds in a parallel universe.

[© Tweed the Younger]

It's mathematically impossible.  Maybe the polls were taken in two different countries.  Or two different worlds in a parallel universe.

Yep, because the polls conflict each others' margin of error.  Do you know what I mean?

[agcatter]

Yeah, one of these polls has a bad sample, which one I have no clue.  I know polls are fluid this time of year, but fluid means fluid over time not poll to poll taken at the same time.  

These polls are supposed to to be within the margin of error 95% of the time.  Guess one of these must have been the one out of twenty times when they came up with a stinker.  Just plain weird.

[© Tweed the Younger]

Yeah, one of these polls has a bad sample, which one I have no clue.  I know polls are fluid this time of year, but fluid means fluid over time not poll to poll taken at the same time.  

These polls are supposed to to be within the margin of error 95% of the time.  Guess one of these must have been the one out of twenty times when they came up with a stinker.  Just plain weird.

We'll see how the polls look tomorrow.

[Mr. Fresh]

I choose #1.

[© Tweed the Younger]

I choose #1.

A vast pollster conspiracy.

[Mr. Fresh]

I choose #1.

A vast pollster conspiracy.

They are trying to confuse everyone so much to just stop and give up, and just let them tell us what to believe.  There is a good Third Rock from the Sun episode on this.  Remember when he goes in for jury duty???  Ya!

[agcatter]

Maybe they want us to add each candidates' percentage in the two polls and divide by two.  It's Gallup's idea of giving us all a math problem for homework.

[© Tweed the Younger]

Maybe they want us to add each candidates' percentage in the two polls and divide by two.  It's Gallup's idea of giving us all a math problem for homework.

That means:

Kerry 49%
Bush 45.5%

[agcatter]

works for me

Guess we deserve all this confusion.  It's our punishment for following these things nine months out.

[© Tweed the Younger]

works for me

Guess we deserve all this confusion.  It's our punishment for following these things nine months out.

We followed them when they were 18 months out.

[agcatter]

Yeah, scary stuff.

[tractarian]

I choose #1.

Hard to say which poll is more reliable.  The Gallup poll (Kerry 55-43) was done over two days, Monday and Tuesday, among 568 likely voters.  The Rasmussen poll is a tracking poll of 1500 likely voters over three days. The numbers (Bush 48-43) reflect only one day of results - thus around 500 likely voters.

The latest UConn poll (Kerry 46-45) is definitely the most accurate, counting 1121 registered voters over two days.

Of course, in a couple of days these numbers will be ancient history!

[GOPman]

Polls are ok some of the time. But the problem with most of them are the fact that they are slanted to the left most of the time. Dems are much more likely to take a poll, and the ones putting out the polls are trying to make momentum for someone who is their favorite. The fact is, that the time to watch the polls will start in the summer around June 2004, and after Sept 2004 especially. I think you will see a dramatic shift in not only polls, but W's approval rating. Watch and see!

[California Dreamer]

the polls arent insane

Americans are insane. Remember the vast majority dont pay attention to things like those of us who would be on a forum like this do.

about a third will make their mind up in the last couple weeks and it will be based on what they ate that day, the latest mini scandals, and other useless stuff.

Remember that 60% of amercians thought we went to war in Iraq because Iraq was responsible for 9-11, something that even the President when pressed has admitted isnt true (even though he mentions terrorists and/or 9-11 every time he talks about Iraq).


I think all these polls are 100% accurate. A third of americans will vote the dem, a third will vote for Bush and a third are more worried about American Idol.

The scary thing is that it is that third that get to pick the president

[Sibboleth]

It's like Yes Minister...

[Gustaf]

The pollsters can bias the questions, something we'll never know of..and theres a good point on results being within MoE 95% of the time, considering how many polls are always out there.

[© Tweed the Younger]

The pollsters can bias the questions, something we'll never know of..and theres a good point on results being within MoE 95% of the time, considering how many polls are always out there.

Good point.  In this election cycle from what I've seen though, Gallup leans right and Zogby leans left.

[Michael Z]

Let's face it, polls mean nothing until September/October.

[zachman]

Polls only indicate a change. The recent polls have been unreliable as to who is ahead, but it is clear public opinion has slipped for Bush and picked up for the democrats. Polls were wrong in 2000with Bush constantly ahead.