Smallest incumbent bounce ever

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Gallup says Bush's 2 point bounce is the smallest.
http://gallup.com/content/?ci=12922

[Floridude]

True true, neither candidate got a very big bounce.  But at least Bush got one; Kerry's polling was pretty flat, though he might have gotten a very small one

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Kerry did get one. The "no bounce" claims were based on a single Gallup poll. Afterwords he started to surge in state polls and had a clear electoral lead.

[King]

Kerry did get one. The "no bounce" claims were based on a single Gallup poll. Afterwords he started to surge in state polls and had a clear electoral lead.

The only only one that claims "small bounce" is a single gallup poll and in my sig we can see the beginning of a surge for Bush in state polls...

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

I don't know why no one is looking at the EVs a little more.  I'd still say Kerry has most of the Gore states in his column, and the 3 he's in most danger of losing (PA, WI, IA) he probably still ahead by a little, and NH still looks pretty good for him.  Yes, Kerry is going to get CRUSHED in the South, but that's not where the election is going to be decided.  I could see Kerry losing the PV, and winning the EV.  

Now that would be a slap in the republicans face, cause they couldn't say jack sh*t about it.  

[ATFFL]

Kerry did get one. The "no bounce" claims were based on a single Gallup poll. Afterwords he started to surge in state polls and had a clear electoral lead.

This is by the Gallup measure, which is sort of the official measure of such things.  

The Kerry bounce was oddly delayed.  Almost like the electorate grudingly accepted him.  Future historians will have a real hard time describing it.

I think this is why the swiftboat vets were able to pull him down so quickly.  The support Kery picked up was feather soft and pulled away at the slightest breeze.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Kerry did get one. The "no bounce" claims were based on a single Gallup poll. Afterwords he started to surge in state polls and had a clear electoral lead.

The only only one that claims "small bounce" is a single gallup poll and in my sig we can see the beginning of a surge for Bush in state polls...

from a site that simply counts the last poll taken, including Zogby Interactive ones.

[AuH2O]

Bush is consistently up in Wisconsin. He will take Iowa if he wins the popular vote.

PA is tougher, he needs a pretty good popular vote win to take it (I would think 2% minimum).

[Reds4]

why are so many people having trouble with how much the bounce is at gallup? Bill Schneider even said it wrong. Bush was up 3 in the last gallup poll now is up 7. 4 point bounce from gallup.

[Citizen James]

I don't know why no one is looking at the EVs a little more.  I'd still say Kerry has most of the Gore states in his column, and the 3 he's in most danger of losing (PA, WI, IA) he probably still ahead by a little, and NH still looks pretty good for him.  Yes, Kerry is going to get CRUSHED in the South, but that's not where the election is going to be decided.  I could see Kerry losing the PV, and winning the EV.  

Now that would be a slap in the republicans face, cause they couldn't say jack sh*t about it.  

Ah, the irony scenerio.   I know I'm in the minority here, but I  consider that a very real possibility.   Bush has a strong, almost cult-like following in some parts of the country - especially the deep south; but he gets the same EVs from those states whether he wins them by 4 points or 40.  And as he rallies his base, that base is disproprotionately located in his safe states (which is, of course, why they're safe).  Rallying his base however has limited appeal elsewhere in the nation, where social conservatives are a much smaller proportion of the state populations.

[ATFFL]

why are so many people having trouble with how much the bounce is at gallup? Bill Schneider even said it wrong. Bush was up 3 in the last gallup poll now is up 7. 4 point bounce from gallup.

Gallup measures the bounce by how much the candidate moves, not the spread.  Thus he had a 2 point bounce going frm 50 to 52.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I don't know why no one is looking at the EVs a little more.  I'd still say Kerry has most of the Gore states in his column, and the 3 he's in most danger of losing (PA, WI, IA) he probably still ahead by a little, and NH still looks pretty good for him.  Yes, Kerry is going to get CRUSHED in the South, but that's not where the election is going to be decided.  I could see Kerry losing the PV, and winning the EV.  

Now that would be a slap in the republicans face, cause they couldn't say jack sh*t about it.  

Ah, the irony scenerio.   I know I'm in the minority here, but I  consider that a very real possibility.   Bush has a strong, almost cult-like following in some parts of the country - especially the deep south; but he gets the same EVs from those states whether he wins them by 4 points or 40.  And as he rallies his base, that base is disproprotionately located in his safe states (which is, of course, why they're safe).  Rallying his base however has limited appeal elsewhere in the nation, where social conservatives are a much smaller proportion of the state populations.

The electoral college tends to favor the Republicans, because they tend to do well in the smaller states. Kerry will get quite a large popular vote advantage from just NY, MA, and CA. Gore won NY by 1.7 million votes in 2000, and Kerry could top that.

[AuH2O]

Gore won LA County alone by 900,000 votes. I wouldn't say Bush's support is more concentrated.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

why are so many people having trouble with how much the bounce is at gallup? Bill Schneider even said it wrong. Bush was up 3 in the last gallup poll now is up 7. 4 point bounce from gallup.

Gallup measures the bounce by how much the candidate moves, not the spread.  Thus he had a 2 point bounce going frm 50 to 52.

No, it's a 2 point bounce amoung registered voters.

[ATFFL]

why are so many people having trouble with how much the bounce is at gallup? Bill Schneider even said it wrong. Bush was up 3 in the last gallup poll now is up 7. 4 point bounce from gallup.

Gallup measures the bounce by how much the candidate moves, not the spread.  Thus he had a 2 point bounce going frm 50 to 52.

No, it's a 2 point bounce amoung registered voters.

Sorry, you are correct.  Bush went from 47 to 49 for his 2 point bounce.  

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

why are so many people having trouble with how much the bounce is at gallup? Bill Schneider even said it wrong. Bush was up 3 in the last gallup poll now is up 7. 4 point bounce from gallup.

Gallup measures the bounce by how much the candidate moves, not the spread.  Thus he had a 2 point bounce going frm 50 to 52.

No, it's a 2 point bounce amoung registered voters.

Sorry, you are correct.  Bush went from 47 to 49 for his 2 point bounce.  

He went from down 1 to up 1.

[ATFFL]

why are so many people having trouble with how much the bounce is at gallup? Bill Schneider even said it wrong. Bush was up 3 in the last gallup poll now is up 7. 4 point bounce from gallup.

Gallup measures the bounce by how much the candidate moves, not the spread.  Thus he had a 2 point bounce going frm 50 to 52.

No, it's a 2 point bounce amoung registered voters.

Sorry, you are correct.  Bush went from 47 to 49 for his 2 point bounce.  

He went from down 1 to up 1.

But Kerry went from up 4 to even and they report it as a -1 point bounce.  This is because Kerry went from 49% down to 48%.

From the article:

You must be logged in to read this quote.