These polls are insane! (user search)
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  These polls are insane! (search mode)
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Author Topic: These polls are insane!  (Read 11110 times)
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Miamiu1027
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« on: February 18, 2004, 09:50:57 PM »

I don't understand how Kerry can trail by 5% and lead by 12% in polls released the same day.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1 on: February 18, 2004, 10:03:50 PM »

It's mathematically impossible.  Maybe the polls were taken in two different countries.  Or two different worlds in a parallel universe.
Yep, because the polls conflict each others' margin of error.  Do you know what I mean?
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Miamiu1027
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Posts: 36,562
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« Reply #2 on: February 18, 2004, 10:17:26 PM »

Yeah, one of these polls has a bad sample, which one I have no clue.  I know polls are fluid this time of year, but fluid means fluid over time not poll to poll taken at the same time.  

These polls are supposed to to be within the margin of error 95% of the time.  Guess one of these must have been the one out of twenty times when they came up with a stinker.  Just plain weird.
We'll see how the polls look tomorrow.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #3 on: February 18, 2004, 10:19:52 PM »

A vast pollster conspiracy.
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Miamiu1027
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Posts: 36,562
United States


« Reply #4 on: February 18, 2004, 10:27:47 PM »

Maybe they want us to add each candidates' percentage in the two polls and divide by two.  It's Gallup's idea of giving us all a math problem for homework.
That means:

Kerry 49%
Bush 45.5%
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Miamiu1027
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Posts: 36,562
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« Reply #5 on: February 18, 2004, 10:34:40 PM »

works for me

Guess we deserve all this confusion.  It's our punishment for following these things nine months out.
We followed them when they were 18 months out.
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Miamiu1027
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Posts: 36,562
United States


« Reply #6 on: February 19, 2004, 12:39:26 PM »

The pollsters can bias the questions, something we'll never know of..and theres a good point on results being within MoE 95% of the time, considering how many polls are always out there.
Good point.  In this election cycle from what I've seen though, Gallup leans right and Zogby leans left.
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Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
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Posts: 36,562
United States


« Reply #7 on: February 21, 2004, 09:25:52 AM »

Let's face it, polls mean nothing until September/October.
Until after both of the conventions, they mean nothing.  Gore was trailing Bush by >10% in polls before the Democratic convention, which pushed him into a tie.
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