These polls are insane!

[tractarian]

I choose #1.

Hard to say which poll is more reliable.  The Gallup poll (Kerry 55-43) was done over two days, Monday and Tuesday, among 568 likely voters.  The Rasmussen poll is a tracking poll of 1500 likely voters over three days. The numbers (Bush 48-43) reflect only one day of results - thus around 500 likely voters.

The latest UConn poll (Kerry 46-45) is definitely the most accurate, counting 1121 registered voters over two days.

Of course, in a couple of days these numbers will be ancient history!