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Author Topic: PA: Rasmussen: Another Kerry state under fire  (Read 1488 times)
Aizen
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« on: August 21, 2008, 02:42:25 pm »
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New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Rasmussen on 2008-08-20

Summary: D: 48%, R: 45%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: August 21, 2008, 02:46:01 pm »
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I'm not really worried about PA right now. I would be if McCain actually pulls ahead. But there've been several polls this time around in 2004 where Bush lead by 3, whereas Obama constantly leads McCain.
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J. J.
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« Reply #2 on: August 21, 2008, 02:47:16 pm »
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I'm not surprised.  PA may be the "Ohio" of 2008.
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Rowan
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« Reply #3 on: August 21, 2008, 04:11:08 pm »
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Race is tightening everywhere. This is undeniable.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #4 on: August 21, 2008, 04:14:16 pm »
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Solid Obama
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Franzl
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« Reply #5 on: August 21, 2008, 04:15:30 pm »
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Solid Obama

not if McCain follows Rush Limbaugh's advice and takes Rick Santorum as his running mate. THat would swing it!
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #6 on: August 21, 2008, 04:16:45 pm »
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Solid Obama

not if McCain follows Rush Limbaugh's advice and takes Rick Santorum as his running mate. THat would swing it!

And, as usual, your ignorance shows. I've never argued that Santorum would really help among undecided voters especially in PA. I do enjoy your little love fest with me today though.
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« Reply #7 on: August 21, 2008, 04:18:23 pm »
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McCain has outspent Obama here by $1.5 million, the largest gap of any state where they're both competing. Admittedly, it's the largest state where he's advertising.
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« Reply #8 on: August 21, 2008, 04:22:23 pm »
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Solid Obama

not if McCain follows Rush Limbaugh's advice and takes Rick Santorum as his running mate. THat would swing it!

And, as usual, your ignorance shows. I've never argued that Santorum would really help among undecided voters especially in PA. I do enjoy your little love fest with me today though.

1.) I never claimed you had made any such statement. Don't put words in my mouth. I was just suggesting myself that Santorum might overcome the "solid Obama" rating.

2.) My ignorance? Isn't it pretty ignorant to mock everyone with your stupid "solid Obama" comment?

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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #9 on: August 21, 2008, 04:24:32 pm »
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I was just suggesting myself that Santorum might overcome the "solid Obama" rating.

In a mocking manner.

Quote
2.) My ignorance? Isn't it pretty ignorant to mock everyone with your stupid "solid Obama" comment?

Mocking everyone? No, just the ones that see this as an almost safe Obama state.
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« Reply #10 on: August 21, 2008, 04:29:11 pm »
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Solid Obama

That's where I have it and I'm not changing it based on one poll.
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War on Want
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« Reply #11 on: August 21, 2008, 04:29:19 pm »
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I'm not worried about Pennsylvania much. Obama has had an extremely consistent lead here and unless McCain takes a very large lead it is not voting for McCain.
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« Reply #12 on: August 21, 2008, 04:36:49 pm »
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Good to see that PA is staying democrat even when Obama is admittedly losing his lead nationwide. CO,OH,NV and VA will decide this thing.
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« Reply #13 on: August 21, 2008, 04:38:22 pm »
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Good to see that PA is staying democrat even when Obama is admittedly losing his lead nationwide. CO,OH,NV and VA will decide this thing.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #14 on: August 21, 2008, 04:40:31 pm »
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Good to see that PA is staying democrat even when Obama is admittedly losing his lead nationwide. CO,OH,NV and VA will decide this thing.

My friends, this Obama lead is about the same as his lead nationally.
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War on Want
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« Reply #15 on: August 21, 2008, 04:43:45 pm »
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Good to see that PA is staying democrat even when Obama is admittedly losing his lead nationwide. CO,OH,NV and VA will decide this thing.

My friends, this Obama lead is about the same as his lead nationally.
No, his lead is either one or none, here it is 3 and he has had a better lead here than nationally very consistently.
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« Reply #16 on: August 21, 2008, 04:44:51 pm »
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Good to see that PA is staying democrat even when Obama is admittedly losing his lead nationwide. CO,OH,NV and VA will decide this thing.

My friends, this Obama lead is about the same as his lead nationally.

Well according to RCP Obama is leading by about 1.5 nationally. See after April 22nd I thought this would be one of those states that could go from being more dem than the average to more republican. Obviously that has not occurred and it is about a couple points more dem than the national average. Thus in a 50-50 race PA will vote democrat, even if it is by a few points. CO,OH and VA might end up being more interesting in a 50-50 race.
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« Reply #17 on: August 21, 2008, 04:47:45 pm »
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Eh, this poll is in line with the other polls.  I wouldn't be too quick to call it "the deciding state of 2008" or a tossup yet since, what, it's been consistently Obama +5-6% but recently McCain has caught up at least about a percentage point overall nationally.  The difference between ~3% in one poll isn't really that different from 4-5% or wherever the trendline would guess at where he is.

I mean, PA will obviously be competitive.  But at least Michigan has several polls with a McCain lead.  Stay tuned.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #18 on: August 21, 2008, 04:48:52 pm »
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Good to see that PA is staying democrat even when Obama is admittedly losing his lead nationwide. CO,OH,NV and VA will decide this thing.

My friends, this Obama lead is about the same as his lead nationally.
No, his lead is either one or none, here it is 3 and he has had a better lead here than nationally very consistently.

Oh wow! A two point difference. Yep, solid Obama state.

Thus in a 50-50 race PA will vote democrat, even if it is by a few points.

It doesn't always work out that way but whatever.
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« Reply #19 on: August 21, 2008, 04:59:01 pm »
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Quote from: Keystone Phil link=topic=81213.msg1678725#msg1678725 date=1219355H332
Thus in a 50-50 race PA will vote democrat, even if it is by a few points.

It doesn't always work out that way but whatever.

Well if Obama decides to not even campaign in PA, then sure Mccain could walk away with the state in a 50-50 race. But it more likely that the race will be settled by states like CO,NV,OH and VA who really seem to be in the middle of the country currently. PA is like MI in the sense that it is so close yet so far for republicans.
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War on Want
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« Reply #20 on: August 21, 2008, 04:59:57 pm »
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Good to see that PA is staying democrat even when Obama is admittedly losing his lead nationwide. CO,OH,NV and VA will decide this thing.

My friends, this Obama lead is about the same as his lead nationally.
No, his lead is either one or none, here it is 3 and he has had a better lead here than nationally very consistently.

Oh wow! A two point difference. Yep, solid Obama state.

It doesn't always work out that way but whatever.
More solid than you make it out to be. You act like it is a total tossup, that is for states like Nevada, Colorado and Ohio not Pennsylvania.
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Lunar
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« Reply #21 on: August 21, 2008, 05:03:59 pm »
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It's important to remember that 3% is within statistical static for a slightly higher number, like I said, 4-5%.  I mean, the "actual" number could just as easily be 1-2% although I view that as unlikely.

PA *does* seem to be one of the stronger states for Obama that both sides are competing.  I would place it as the third-most safe Obama state out of the states that both are running ads in.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #22 on: August 21, 2008, 05:17:31 pm »
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Solid Obama

That's where I have it and I'm not changing it based on one poll.

^^^^

I agree with this guy.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #23 on: August 22, 2008, 12:41:54 am »
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More solid than you make it out to be. You act like it is a total tossup, that is for states like Nevada, Colorado and Ohio not Pennsylvania.

Hahaha...

Oh, you silly, silly child. You're right. It won't be a total toss up like it has been for plenty of elections.
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« Reply #24 on: August 22, 2008, 12:47:26 am »
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Not so much "under fire" as exactly where it was in 2004.
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