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Author Topic: TV Maps  (Read 20104 times)
Harry Hayfield
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« on: August 22, 2008, 03:15:47 pm »
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I would like to start a new thread to accompany the polling section where members can post maps based on what "experts" say so that other members can comment on them. To break the ice so to speak, I woud like to contribute this map.

Broadcast: August 22nd 2008
Channel: Fox News
Programme: Your World with Cavuto
Map Source: Karl Rove and Company



Electoral College Tally
Republicans 194 ECV's
Democrats 260 ECV's
Tossups 84
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« Reply #1 on: August 22, 2008, 03:30:51 pm »
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Just based on history, I'd say MT and ND should probably be some shade of light blue, but otherwise this seems like a perfectly reasonable map.
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Sbane
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« Reply #2 on: August 22, 2008, 04:37:35 pm »
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I would probably switch ND blue and make NH red. Other than that good map.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #3 on: August 22, 2008, 04:56:18 pm »
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Identical to this map, except for Alaska:

http://www.pollster.com/polls/2008president/

In other words, it's an accurate reflection of where things stand with current polling....even if there are certain states (like ND) where we might not believe the polling.
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« Reply #4 on: August 22, 2008, 05:27:21 pm »
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Not a horrible map, though I disagree about New Mexico given his other choices of tossups.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #5 on: August 22, 2008, 06:18:58 pm »
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I would probably switch ND blue and make NH red. Other than that good map.

As much as you may want to deny it, New Hampshire will be competitive this year.  Yeah, Obama will probably take it, but it's a viable tipping point state that McCain shouldn't and won't write off.
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« Reply #6 on: August 22, 2008, 06:50:26 pm »
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I would probably switch ND blue and make NH red. Other than that good map.

As much as you may want to deny it, New Hampshire will be competitive this year.  Yeah, Obama will probably take it, but it's a viable tipping point state that McCain shouldn't and won't write off.

If this map is saying that PA and MI are lean dem, then so should NH. I actually think NH will just be a few points more dem than the national average and if Mccain wins by a couple points he has a good chance of picking up the state. I just think that if Mccain wins it will be by a very small margin by carrying CO,NV and OH. Of course if he wins by a few points he will start winning NM,PA and perhaps IA, NH and MI.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #7 on: August 22, 2008, 08:32:38 pm »
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I would probably switch ND blue and make NH red. Other than that good map.

As much as you may want to deny it, New Hampshire will be competitive this year.  Yeah, Obama will probably take it, but it's a viable tipping point state that McCain shouldn't and won't write off.

If this map is saying that PA and MI are lean dem, then so should NH. I actually think NH will just be a few points more dem than the national average and if Mccain wins by a couple points he has a good chance of picking up the state. I just think that if Mccain wins it will be by a very small margin by carrying CO,NV and OH. Of course if he wins by a few points he will start winning NM,PA and perhaps IA, NH and MI.

It will be about 1 point more Democratic than the national average, I predict.  McCain can still change that though if the economy shapes up or the war in Iraq becomes more popular when election day comes.
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« Reply #8 on: August 24, 2008, 09:35:15 am »
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I would probably switch ND blue and make NH red. Other than that good map.

As much as you may want to deny it, New Hampshire will be competitive this year.  Yeah, Obama will probably take it, but it's a viable tipping point state that McCain shouldn't and won't write off.

If this map is saying that PA and MI are lean dem, then so should NH. I actually think NH will just be a few points more dem than the national average and if Mccain wins by a couple points he has a good chance of picking up the state. I just think that if Mccain wins it will be by a very small margin by carrying CO,NV and OH. Of course if he wins by a few points he will start winning NM,PA and perhaps IA, NH and MI.

I expect New Hampshire to be closer to the national average than both PA and MI but I believe all will be within 5%. New Hampshire maybe as little as 1 or 2 % more Democratic than national average.
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« Reply #9 on: August 25, 2008, 12:41:15 am »
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That map looks very much like the one at www.electoral-vote.com at the moment, which is some function of recent polls, so is probably roughly where things are at the moment.
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #10 on: August 25, 2008, 06:15:05 pm »
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Broadcast: August 26th 2008
Channel: CNN
Programme: Democratic Convention Coverage
Map Source: CNN Estimates



Electoral College Tally
Republicans 189 ECV's
Democrats 221 ECV's
Tossups 128
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« Reply #11 on: August 25, 2008, 06:15:57 pm »
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Broadcast: August 26th 2008
Channel: CNN
Programme: Democratic Convention Coverage
Map Source: CNN Estimates



Electoral College Tally
Republicans 189 ECV's
Democrats 221 ECV's
Tossups 128

Oh Minnesota....wheres BRTD?
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go85bucks10
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« Reply #12 on: August 28, 2008, 01:07:14 am »
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This CNN Map is weak. CNN doesn't take any, and I mean any chances when they made this map. everything that could be considered battleground except for Pennsylvania is labeled a battlegroound. Missouri as a toss up is ridiculous. Montana is closer than Missouri's is. They just chose Missouri because of its history as the number 1 bellwether state since 1900, but this time around unless there is a major change, its going republican.
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« Reply #13 on: August 28, 2008, 01:34:39 am »
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IDS Judicial Overlord PiT
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« Reply #14 on: August 28, 2008, 03:29:13 am »
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     Minnesota is a tossup yet Pennsylvania is lean? Toss that one.
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« Reply #15 on: August 28, 2008, 11:43:14 am »
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     Minnesota is a tossup yet Pennsylvania is lean? Toss that one.

Hey, CNN is getting a lot better lately.  They used to have New Mexico as "lean McCain" despite not a single poll at that time (out of like a dozen) showing McCain with ANY lead.  The news media in general seems insistent that Minnesota is a tossup - they seem reluctant to judge the state before the home-state convention and possible home-state VP.  I also think putting Minnesota as a tossup means that they seem less biased with their EV totals.
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IDS Judicial Overlord PiT
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« Reply #16 on: August 28, 2008, 03:09:31 pm »
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     Minnesota is a tossup yet Pennsylvania is lean? Toss that one.

Hey, CNN is getting a lot better lately.  They used to have New Mexico as "lean McCain" despite not a single poll at that time (out of like a dozen) showing McCain with ANY lead.  The news media in general seems insistent that Minnesota is a tossup - they seem reluctant to judge the state before the home-state convention and possible home-state VP.  I also think putting Minnesota as a tossup means that they seem less biased with their EV totals.

     Minnesota just is not within reach of McCain. Pawlenty would raise McCain's chances of winning the state from 0% to 0.1%.
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #17 on: August 28, 2008, 05:12:46 pm »
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Broadcast: August 28th 2008
Channel: Fox News Channel
Programme: Special Report with Brit Hume
Map Source: Karl Rove



Obama 260
McCain 221
Tossups 57
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IDS Judicial Overlord PiT
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« Reply #18 on: August 28, 2008, 09:37:10 pm »
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Broadcast: August 28th 2008
Channel: Fox News Channel
Programme: Special Report with Brit Hume
Map Source: Karl Rove



Obama 260
McCain 221
Tossups 57

     NH to lean Obama, PA to tossup. Otherwise, I agree with this map.
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #19 on: September 02, 2008, 05:37:20 pm »
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Broadcast: September 2nd 2008
Channel: CNN
Programme: The Situation Room
Map Source: CNN Estimates



Obama 226
McCain 189
Tossups 123

According to the chief GOP pollster, the effect of Palin would be thus:



Obama 221
McCain 216
Tossups 101

(The changes are: CO McCain, NM McCain, VA leans McCain)
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« Reply #20 on: September 02, 2008, 08:12:25 pm »
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Broadcast: September 2nd 2008
Channel: CNN
Programme: The Situation Room
Map Source: CNN Estimates



Obama 226
McCain 189
Tossups 123

According to the chief GOP pollster, the effect of Palin would be thus:



Obama 221
McCain 216
Tossups 101

(The changes are: CO McCain, NM McCain, VA leans McCain)

AHAHA
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #21 on: September 03, 2008, 05:42:18 pm »
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Broadcast: September 3rd 2008
Channel: CNN
Programme: The Situation Room
Map Source: CNN Estimates and CNN Polls



Lighter colours = leaners, Darker Colours = Bankers

Obama 243
McCain 189
Tossups 106
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Iosif
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« Reply #22 on: September 03, 2008, 05:44:53 pm »
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Nobody has the balls to call it the way it is. Everybody's playing it safe.

The only pure tossups in this election are Ohio, Virginia and Colorado. The rest are all leans/safe.
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IDS Judicial Overlord PiT
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« Reply #23 on: September 04, 2008, 01:19:07 am »
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Broadcast: September 3rd 2008
Channel: CNN
Programme: The Situation Room
Map Source: CNN Estimates and CNN Polls



Lighter colours = leaners, Darker Colours = Bankers

Obama 243
McCain 189
Tossups 106

     Louisiana & Arkansas are leaners? Is CNN even trying?
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Duke
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« Reply #24 on: September 04, 2008, 01:48:49 am »
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Broadcast: September 3rd 2008
Channel: CNN
Programme: The Situation Room
Map Source: CNN Estimates and CNN Polls



Lighter colours = leaners, Darker Colours = Bankers

Obama 243
McCain 189
Tossups 106

Louisiana is looking like a 60% + route for McCain this year, and they have it as lean? The same deal with Arkansas, West Virginia.
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