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Author Topic: Is NC senate race going to turn out like VA in 2006?  (Read 3065 times)
Josh/Devilman88
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« on: August 23, 2008, 08:46:29 am »
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In 2006 the Allen was ahead like Dole, then the closer the election got, the closer the race became. In the end Webb beat Allen by .39%. Could NC turn out just like VA did in 2006? 
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #1 on: August 23, 2008, 08:57:35 am »
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Not unless Dole makes a racist comment then is revealed to have a history of racist comments.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #2 on: August 23, 2008, 10:11:04 am »
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Wake me when Hagen starts polling regularly above 45%, ok?
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #3 on: August 23, 2008, 10:37:01 am »
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You do realize that George Allen lost because he blasted the fact he was Jewish, called an opposing intern a "macaca", held stock in a company that made abortion pills, and a bunch of other gaffes.

The answer is NO
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Gov. Christopher J. Christie
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« Reply #4 on: August 23, 2008, 10:39:58 am »
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When Hagan starts getting (even close) to a majority of the vote, we'll talk.  I expect it to be Dole by 5-7 points.
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Born and raised in California
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« Reply #5 on: August 23, 2008, 11:01:02 am »
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It's tempting to look at North Carolina, Minnesota, Mississippi and even a few other states where the R incumbent isn't polling above 50 to get excited.  But these things usually level off.  I expect Republicans to hold all the close ones, while losing New Hampshire, Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado, and Alaska.  They'll hold Louisiana and South Dakota, while Republicans will hold North Carolina, Georgia, Kentucky, Texas, Mississippi, Maine and Oregon.
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Nym90
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« Reply #6 on: August 23, 2008, 12:36:41 pm »
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Wake me when Hagen starts polling regularly above 45%, ok?

Well, I don't think Webb had cracked 45 percent at this point two years ago either, but obviously Dole is no Allen.
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IDS Attorney General PiT
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« Reply #7 on: August 23, 2008, 12:41:26 pm »
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Wake me when Hagen starts polling regularly above 45%, ok?

Well, I don't think Webb had cracked 45 percent at this point two years ago either, but obviously Dole is no Allen.

     Webb had also just begun to be competitive as Allen had just said Macaca at this point.
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Jake
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« Reply #8 on: August 23, 2008, 12:42:10 pm »
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Wake me when Hagen starts polling regularly above 45%, ok?

Well, I don't think Webb had cracked 45 percent at this point two years ago either, but obviously Dole is no Allen.

He had in an 8-18 Survey USA (48-45 Allen). A few days earlier a Rasmussen had it at 47-42.
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Mideast Assemblyman Ben
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« Reply #9 on: August 23, 2008, 12:45:40 pm »
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No.  Dole is no Allen; Allen lost because of a long string of gaffes, and Dole won't make those same mistakes.  Plus, NC isn't as Democratic as Virginia is, yet.`
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« Reply #10 on: August 23, 2008, 12:47:24 pm »
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Dole isn't an Allen but she will try to screw this up!
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« Reply #11 on: August 23, 2008, 12:53:18 pm »
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Dole isn't an Allen but she will try to screw this up!

     Dole is a mole working for the Democrats. That explains her inexplicable "strategy" in 2006. Tongue
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #12 on: August 23, 2008, 12:58:16 pm »
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No.  Dole is no Allen; Allen lost because of a long string of gaffes, and Dole won't make those same mistakes.  Plus, NC isn't as Democratic as Virginia is, yet.`

VA is more Democratic the NC at the national level, but at the local level NC is more Democratic.
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« Reply #13 on: August 23, 2008, 01:01:14 pm »
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It almost happened in Kentucky in 2004, too.

Of course that's no guarantee of another repeat. And it wouldn't have to be NC, either. (Fingers crossed for that ass Cornyn to screw up everything he can between now and election day)
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« Reply #14 on: August 23, 2008, 01:06:23 pm »
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No.  Dole is no Allen; Allen lost because of a long string of gaffes, and Dole won't make those same mistakes.  Plus, NC isn't as Democratic as Virginia is, yet.`

VA is more Democratic the NC at the national level, but at the local level NC is more Democratic.

     Fortunately for Dole that Senate races are federal in that case. Wink
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #15 on: August 23, 2008, 01:07:40 pm »
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It almost happened in Kentucky in 2004, too.

Of course that's no guarantee of another repeat. And it wouldn't have to be NC, either. (Fingers crossed for that ass Cornyn to screw up everything he can between now and election day)

Only problem is that North Carolina is not Kentucky.  Doesn't mean that it can't happen, but Bunning has always been a weaker candidate in reality than he appears on paper (kind of the opposite of McConnell).  Who knows about Dole?

And Texas certainly isn't Kentucky.  Smiley  Besides, Noriega has to get money to be able to run a campaign first and foremost. 
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #16 on: August 23, 2008, 01:11:02 pm »
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No.  Dole is no Allen; Allen lost because of a long string of gaffes, and Dole won't make those same mistakes.  Plus, NC isn't as Democratic as Virginia is, yet.`

VA is more Democratic the NC at the national level, but at the local level NC is more Democratic.

     Fortunately for Dole that Senate races are federal in that case. Wink

I know Tongue...  I just don't think Dole will be able to keep up, money wise with the DSCC + what Hagan gets. Also Dole will not get the black voters like she needs to keep Hagan down in the polls. And as long as Hagan stayes with in 5% of Dole the DSCC will give Hagan money. Unlike the RNC who are trying to states like CO, MN, OR, ME, LA ect close.
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« Reply #17 on: August 23, 2008, 01:15:23 pm »
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It almost happened in Kentucky in 2004, too.

Of course that's no guarantee of another repeat. And it wouldn't have to be NC, either. (Fingers crossed for that ass Cornyn to screw up everything he can between now and election day)

Only problem is that North Carolina is not Kentucky.  Doesn't mean that it can't happen, but Bunning has always been a weaker candidate in reality than he appears on paper (kind of the opposite of McConnell).  Who knows about Dole?

And Texas certainly isn't Kentucky.  Smiley  Besides, Noriega has to get money to be able to run a campaign first and foremost. 
Did Mongiardo have money?
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I may conceivably reconsider.

Knowing me it's more likely than not.
Sam Spade
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« Reply #18 on: August 23, 2008, 01:20:55 pm »
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It almost happened in Kentucky in 2004, too.

Of course that's no guarantee of another repeat. And it wouldn't have to be NC, either. (Fingers crossed for that ass Cornyn to screw up everything he can between now and election day)

Only problem is that North Carolina is not Kentucky.  Doesn't mean that it can't happen, but Bunning has always been a weaker candidate in reality than he appears on paper (kind of the opposite of McConnell).  Who knows about Dole?

And Texas certainly isn't Kentucky.  Smiley  Besides, Noriega has to get money to be able to run a campaign first and foremost. 
Did Mongiardo have money?

Bunning raised/spent about $6.5 million.  Mongiardo raised/spent about $2.9 million.

At present, Cornyn has raised about $16.4 million, with about $9.4 million CoH.  Noriega has raised about $2.4 million, with about $900K CoH.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #19 on: August 23, 2008, 01:22:55 pm »
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It almost happened in Kentucky in 2004, too.

Of course that's no guarantee of another repeat. And it wouldn't have to be NC, either. (Fingers crossed for that ass Cornyn to screw up everything he can between now and election day)

Only problem is that North Carolina is not Kentucky.  Doesn't mean that it can't happen, but Bunning has always been a weaker candidate in reality than he appears on paper (kind of the opposite of McConnell).  Who knows about Dole?

And Texas certainly isn't Kentucky.  Smiley  Besides, Noriega has to get money to be able to run a campaign first and foremost. 
Did Mongiardo have money?

Bunning raised/spent about $6.5 million.  Mongiardo raised/spent about $2.9 million.

At present, Cornyn has raised about $16.4 million, with about $9.4 million CoH.  Noriega has raised about $2.4 million, with about $900K CoH.
Okay, so the answer is "yes". Smiley
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Knowing me it's more likely than not.
Sam Spade
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« Reply #20 on: August 23, 2008, 01:24:39 pm »
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It almost happened in Kentucky in 2004, too.

Of course that's no guarantee of another repeat. And it wouldn't have to be NC, either. (Fingers crossed for that ass Cornyn to screw up everything he can between now and election day)

Only problem is that North Carolina is not Kentucky.  Doesn't mean that it can't happen, but Bunning has always been a weaker candidate in reality than he appears on paper (kind of the opposite of McConnell).  Who knows about Dole?

And Texas certainly isn't Kentucky.  Smiley  Besides, Noriega has to get money to be able to run a campaign first and foremost. 
Did Mongiardo have money?

Bunning raised/spent about $6.5 million.  Mongiardo raised/spent about $2.9 million.

At present, Cornyn has raised about $16.4 million, with about $9.4 million CoH.  Noriega has raised about $2.4 million, with about $900K CoH.
Okay, so the answer is "yes". Smiley

I know, I know.  But I thought a detailed description of both situations might help a bit.  Smiley
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #21 on: August 23, 2008, 01:25:59 pm »
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It almost happened in Kentucky in 2004, too.

Of course that's no guarantee of another repeat. And it wouldn't have to be NC, either. (Fingers crossed for that ass Cornyn to screw up everything he can between now and election day)

Only problem is that North Carolina is not Kentucky.  Doesn't mean that it can't happen, but Bunning has always been a weaker candidate in reality than he appears on paper (kind of the opposite of McConnell).  Who knows about Dole?

And Texas certainly isn't Kentucky.  Smiley  Besides, Noriega has to get money to be able to run a campaign first and foremost. 
Did Mongiardo have money?

Bunning raised/spent about $6.5 million.  Mongiardo raised/spent about $2.9 million.

At present, Cornyn has raised about $16.4 million, with about $9.4 million CoH.  Noriega has raised about $2.4 million, with about $900K CoH.
Okay, so the answer is "yes". Smiley

I know, I know.  But I thought a detailed description of both situations might help a bit.  Smiley
Yeah, it did. Smiley
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I may conceivably reconsider.

Knowing me it's more likely than not.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #22 on: August 24, 2008, 04:24:35 am »
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Lewis, your new screen name reminds me of a fellow who used to post on the 2008 boards ... I can't remember his name, but his posts were full of gloom and doom and about how all the presidential candidates were awful.

And then there was his priceless sig (paraphrased): "We are all doomed.  The only hope I have is  that the rest of my life is as painless as possible."

Sorry to go off topic there.  As for the NC Senate race, lol.
It's short for "Let's Give Up and Listen to Shitty Bands", which is from a song but which the Forum Censor won't let me use.
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I may conceivably reconsider.

Knowing me it's more likely than not.
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« Reply #23 on: August 24, 2008, 05:13:10 pm »
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Its going to be closer than most people though a feew months ago, as of now I will say Dole by 3 or so, but Dole could blow it.
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Meeker
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« Reply #24 on: November 13, 2008, 04:12:07 am »
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No, Hagan will win by a significantly larger margin.
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