Would Bush Jr. Have Invaded Iraq Without 9/11 Or A Similar Terrorist Attack?

[Bo]

I'd say No. He and his advisors might have wanted to, but I doubt that the public would have supported him if they weren't scared like crazy (as many were in RL after 9/11). Back in 1990-1991, nearly half of Americans opposed entering the Gulf War (even though the U.S. was just liberating one of its allies, not invading another country). Thus, I doubt that many people would have supported American entry into Iraq without 9/11 or a similar terrorist attack. The U.S. economy was in poor shape between 2001-2003, so if people were not scared, they would have criticized Bush for invading another country instead of worrying about domestic problems and the economy.

[WillK]

I'd say No. He and his advisors might have wanted to, but I doubt that the public would have supported him if they weren't scared like crazy (as many were in RL after 9/11). Back in 1990-1991, nearly half of Americans opposed entering the Gulf War (even though the U.S. was just liberating one of its allies, not invading another country). Thus, I doubt that many people would have supported American entry into Iraq without 9/11 or a similar terrorist attack. The U.S. economy was in poor shape between 2001-2003, so if people were not scared, they would have criticized Bush for invading another country instead of worrying about domestic problems and the economy.

A justification would have been found/created. 

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Yes, the Iraq invasion would have happened no matter what.

[Bo]

I'd say No. He and his advisors might have wanted to, but I doubt that the public would have supported him if they weren't scared like crazy (as many were in RL after 9/11). Back in 1990-1991, nearly half of Americans opposed entering the Gulf War (even though the U.S. was just liberating one of its allies, not invading another country). Thus, I doubt that many people would have supported American entry into Iraq without 9/11 or a similar terrorist attack. The U.S. economy was in poor shape between 2001-2003, so if people were not scared, they would have criticized Bush for invading another country instead of worrying about domestic problems and the economy.

A justification would have been found/created. 

Yes, but without massive public fear and with a poor economy, I think that support for the war might initially be not nearly as high as it was in RL, and thus Bush might be afraid to risk his reelection on a foreign adventure that a large segment of the American people would not support.

[Magic 8-Ball]

If anything, it's more likely that he would simply have Saddam assassinated.

Both scenarios strike me as unlikely.

[minionofmidas]

They wouldn't have dared.

[dead0man]

Probably not....but I wouldn't put it past him (them?) to come up with another reason/excuse to finish Dad's work.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Probably not....but I wouldn't put it past him (them?) to come up with another reason/excuse to finish Dad's work.

[phk]

Certainly possible. I think without 9/11, the probability of such an event occurring was like 25%.

[Psychic Octopus]

No, they had no means to justify it. He also would've lost re-election, probably.

[Bo]

No, they had no means to justify it. He also would've lost re-election, probably.

Exactly. Even if Bush & Co. would have created an excuse, the majority of the public (or a very large minority) would have opposed the invasion since the U.S. either was in a recession (2001-2003) or just came out of a recession (2004) and thus they would feel that Bush should worry more about domestic problems and the economy instead of going on some foreign adventure. Thus, Bush would be afraid to go into Iraq because he would fear that this foreign adventure would cost him his reelection.

[patrick1]

I think it would have required an oil crisis of some sort that was able to have been blamed on Saddam.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

No, they had no means to justify it. He also would've lost re-election, probably.

Since when Bush had a brain?

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

No, they had no means to justify it. He also would've lost re-election, probably.

The Bush family operates under a code of their own, regardless of political consequences.  You fuck with them in any way and they will take a lifetime if need be to get even.

[JSojourner]

I'd say No. He and his advisors might have wanted to, but I doubt that the public would have supported him if they weren't scared like crazy (as many were in RL after 9/11). Back in 1990-1991, nearly half of Americans opposed entering the Gulf War (even though the U.S. was just liberating one of its allies, not invading another country). Thus, I doubt that many people would have supported American entry into Iraq without 9/11 or a similar terrorist attack. The U.S. economy was in poor shape between 2001-2003, so if people were not scared, they would have criticized Bush for invading another country instead of worrying about domestic problems and the economy.

A justification would have been found/created. 

Basically, this.

When a militarist wants to lead his country to war, an excuse is created.  Remember, Germany only invaded Poland because the Poles first attacked Germany...

[Bo]

I'd say No. He and his advisors might have wanted to, but I doubt that the public would have supported him if they weren't scared like crazy (as many were in RL after 9/11). Back in 1990-1991, nearly half of Americans opposed entering the Gulf War (even though the U.S. was just liberating one of its allies, not invading another country). Thus, I doubt that many people would have supported American entry into Iraq without 9/11 or a similar terrorist attack. The U.S. economy was in poor shape between 2001-2003, so if people were not scared, they would have criticized Bush for invading another country instead of worrying about domestic problems and the economy.

A justification would have been found/created. 

Basically, this.

When a militarist wants to lead his country to war, an excuse is created.  Remember, Germany only invaded Poland because the Poles first attacked Germany...

Bush wasn't really a militarist, though. He just wanted to get reelected and wanted something to district people from his mediocre economic record.

[Psychic Octopus]

What could justification could be created? Invading a country, in a time of peace, that posed no immediate threat would be met with immense hostility from an intensely divided Congress. Without 9/11, there is no legitamete reason. Bush and Co. are kicked out in 2004, and their successors are kicked out in '08. Much like a revolving door.

[Bo]

What could justification could be created? Invading a country, in a time of peace, that posed no immediate threat would be met with immense hostility from an intensely divided Congress. Without 9/11, there is no legitamete reason. Bush and Co. are kicked out in 2004, and their successors are kicked out in '08. Much like a revolving door.

I agree with you. I think that without 9/11, Bush might have bombed Iraq, but not invaded it.