If Obama wins two terms, what's the probability that Biden runs in 2016?

[Smid]

Disclaimer -I have not read the rest of this thread:

I think that given his age, Joe Biden will be to Barack Obama what Dick Cheney is to George W. Bush.  He is a man that Obama can trust without having to keep an eye over his shoulder lest his Vice-President begin plotting on undermining his presidency for his own ambitions. 

In terms of probability... what's the number right above zero?

[TeePee4Prez]

As much as I' like to see it- probably < 5%.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

I highly doubt that Biden would run in 2016, if Barack Obama was elected to serve two terms as President of the United States. Sure we have seen the likes of John McCain and Bob Dole, both of the Republican Party when their parties nomination in 1996 and 2008 respectively at the ripe old age of 72/73, but I doubt that Biden will persue that path in 2016. If Obama does manage to win reelection in 2012, I wouldn't be surprised if either Senator Mark Warner or Governor Brian Schweitzer are nominated.

[Verily]

I doubt it. Biden would be the oldest major party candidate ever, about half a year older than Reagan was as sitting President in 1984.

It'll be interesting to see if Bush/Cheney followed by Obama/Biden breaks the mold of the Vice Presidency as a holding space for future Presidential candidates and replaces it with a mold of Vice Presidents as elder statesmen of their parties.

[Daniel Z]

I certainly think Biden has the ambition to run. If he were to run I don't think it would be like Gore or Bush sr where he would be the clear favorite to win the nomination.

[HappyWarrior]

As much as I' like to see it- probably < 5%.

[AndrewTX]

I couldn't picture Biden running in 2016, and I think his time in Washington will be a factor. After 8 years of Obama, I don't think that most democrats will line behind someone who has been serving in elected office for nearly 44 years. I think it'll be time for another fresh face, and I sadly dont think it'll be Biden they pick.

[Frodo]

Disclaimer -I have not read the rest of this thread:

I think that given his age, Joe Biden will be to Barack Obama what Dick Cheney is to George W. Bush.  He is a man that Obama can trust without having to keep an eye over his shoulder lest his Vice-President begin plotting on undermining his presidency for his own ambitions. 

In terms of probability... what's the number right above zero?

Between 0 and 5 percent.  I suppose I have to give some token allowance for the possibility. 

[Ogre Mage]

Very low.  I think that Joe realizes the Vice Presidency will likely be the bookend for his political career.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

You forgot one. Reagan was nominated for a second term in 1984 at 73.

And I have no problem with older candidates. Quite possibly Biden will indeed run should Obama win two terms.

[Reaganfan]

You forgot one. Reagan was nominated for a second term in 1984 at 73.

And I have no problem with older candidates. Quite possible Biden will indeed run should Obama win two terms.

I agree. I actually expect he will, but I expect that he may lose the primary.

[phk]

It will be Clinton's time to shine in 2016.