If Obama wins two terms, what's the probability that Biden runs in 2016?
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  If Obama wins two terms, what's the probability that Biden runs in 2016?
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Author Topic: If Obama wins two terms, what's the probability that Biden runs in 2016?  (Read 5909 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: August 24, 2008, 01:32:10 PM »

Most people are suggesting that, even if Obama wins two terms, Biden will be too old to run for president in 2016 (age 73 on Election Day 2016 and age 74 on Inauguration Day 2017).  But, 20 years ago, people might have said that it was unlikely that anyone over 70 would make a serious run at the presidential nomination of either party.  Yet Bob Dole won the GOP nomination in 1996 at age 73 and McCain did so in 2008 at age 72.

So will Biden necessarily be too old to make the run in 2016?  I'm not asking if he'll be able to win the presidency...just asking how likely you think it would be that he would run.

So, here's the question: *If* Obama wins two terms with Biden as his VP, what's the probability that Biden runs for president in 2016?
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #1 on: August 24, 2008, 01:47:27 PM »

I'd be surprised if he did run at age 74. That would be pushing it, imo. I bet 2016 will be like this year, with no incumbent running.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #2 on: August 24, 2008, 01:50:06 PM »

I'd be surprised if he did run at age 74. That would be pushing it, imo. I bet 2016 will be like this year, with no incumbent running.

To clarify, he'd be 73 when he was running.  His 74th birthday would be after the election but before the inauguration.  Sounds, pretty old, but Dole ran when he was 73, and life expectancies are getting longer and longer.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #3 on: August 24, 2008, 02:55:40 PM »

Hard to tell this far out. Probably not, but not impossible.
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Person Man
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« Reply #4 on: August 24, 2008, 03:19:15 PM »

Of course, Biden could retire in 2012 and Obama could pick a new running mate....and s/he could be the standard bearer in 2016.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #5 on: August 24, 2008, 04:47:13 PM »

Of course, Biden could retire in 2012 and Obama could pick a new running mate....and s/he could be the standard bearer in 2016.

Lol, as if Biden would want to give up on the vice presidency after one term.  After finally getting a shot in the White House (albeit not the Oval Office itself) I really, really doubt he would quit voluntarily after four years.
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #6 on: August 24, 2008, 05:05:04 PM »

I doubt he'll run.  2016 is likely to be Warner's year.
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Sensei
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« Reply #7 on: August 24, 2008, 05:55:43 PM »

I doubt it. 2016 is going to be for Warner, Bayh, or random guy who's currently a Community Organizer or something.
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War on Want
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« Reply #8 on: August 24, 2008, 05:56:57 PM »

I doubt it. 2016 is going to be for Warner, Bayh, or random guy who's currently a Community Organizer or something.
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pragmatic liberal
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« Reply #9 on: August 24, 2008, 08:17:30 PM »

Hard to predict. In 2016, the Democrats may well have a very strong bench of ambitious pols in both the Senate and the various governorships (especially the big-state ones). Many senators and governors elected in 2006 and slated to be elected in 2008 will be in prime position to run, as would any new Democratic governors elected in 2010.

Of course, these things can be pretty difficult to predict. For instance, although Bill Clinton was known as an ambitious Southern pol, and though it was known he wanted to run, few people would have predicted in '88 that he'd be the '92 Democratic nominee. And NOBODY would have predicted even in 2004 or 2005 that Obama would be the '08 Democratic nominee -- not even himself.

But I'd say that there are several possible 2016 Democratic nominees:

Some major possibilities would be...

* Former Va. governor and soon-to-be-Sen. Mark Warner
* Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana
* Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse of R.I.
* Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota
* Gov. Bill Ritter of Colorado
* Gov. Chet Culver of Iowa

Some dark horses would include...

* Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio (likely in more of an insurgent role)
* Sen. Jim Webb of Virginia
* Gov. Jim Lynch of New Hampshire, especially if he can win Judd Gregg's Senate seat in 2010
* Tom Allen of Maine (if can beat Susan Collins this fall)
* Mark Begich of Alaska (if he can beat Ted Stevens this fall and if he can win reelection in 2014)

Look too at big-state governors. If Democrats win open-seat governors races in Michigan, Pennsylvania, California or Texas, those candidates will be very formidable candidates for the nomination. I would watch the current Illinois attorney general, Lisa Madigan, who will likely run for Illinois governor in 2010 and could be a very formidable candidate in 2016.
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YRABNNRM
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« Reply #10 on: August 24, 2008, 08:45:08 PM »

I think that Obama showed that it's a bit silly to predict nominees this far out ahead.

Imagine what predicting the 2008 nominees in August 2000 would have been like.
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #11 on: August 24, 2008, 08:53:28 PM »

I think that Obama showed that it's a bit silly to predict nominees this far out ahead.

Imagine what predicting the 2008 nominees in August 2000 would have been like.

McCain wouldn't have been too outlandish.
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Nym90
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« Reply #12 on: August 24, 2008, 09:02:39 PM »

If his health is good and he is seen as capable and Obama is still relatively popular, there's no reason for him not to.

He could well make a one term pledge, however.
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #13 on: August 24, 2008, 09:22:22 PM »

Maybe, this pains me so much though I rather not think about it
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J. J.
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« Reply #14 on: August 24, 2008, 09:26:45 PM »

The only change the Democrats would is Biden's diaper.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #15 on: August 24, 2008, 10:08:35 PM »

I'm not asking if there might be other strong contenders (I'm not exactly expecting Biden to win by acclamation), or if Biden would necessarily win the nomination.  All I'm asking is if you think Biden would be likely to run.  This has a lot more to do with what you think about Biden than about what you think the rest of the field will look like.  Do you think Biden is the type of politician who would be likely to run for president at age 73 after having served as VP for 8 years?
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pragmatic liberal
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« Reply #16 on: August 24, 2008, 10:56:03 PM »

I'm not asking if there might be other strong contenders (I'm not exactly expecting Biden to win by acclamation), or if Biden would necessarily win the nomination.  All I'm asking is if you think Biden would be likely to run.  This has a lot more to do with what you think about Biden than about what you think the rest of the field will look like.  Do you think Biden is the type of politician who would be likely to run for president at age 73 after having served as VP for 8 years?


I don't think so. 73 (74 at inauguration) is quite old.

It's obviously hard to foresee too far into the future - it's possible, of course, that he would run in 2016, maybe taking a one-term pledge. But I think that 74 will be seen as too old, especially since an Obama would would necessarily mean a McCain loss - and his loss will be seen to be at least partially due to his age (72). Given losses by both Dole and McCain, presidential runs by septuagenarians will be seen as likely losses.
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #17 on: August 25, 2008, 06:35:31 AM »

I'd be surprised if he did run at age 74. That would be pushing it, imo. I bet 2016 will be like this year, with no incumbent running.

To clarify, he'd be 73 when he was running.  His 74th birthday would be after the election but before the inauguration.  Sounds, pretty old, but Dole ran when he was 73, and life expectancies are getting longer and longer.


     Dole was a sacrificial lamb to Clinton, so you can't really tell anything about how voters will react to advanced age from that. McCain is 72, but if he wins & proves Americans don't care overmuch about age, Biden running in 2016 becomes moot anyway.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #18 on: August 25, 2008, 08:01:47 AM »

I'd be surprised if he did run at age 74. That would be pushing it, imo. I bet 2016 will be like this year, with no incumbent running.

To clarify, he'd be 73 when he was running.  His 74th birthday would be after the election but before the inauguration.  Sounds, pretty old, but Dole ran when he was 73, and life expectancies are getting longer and longer.


     Dole was a sacrificial lamb to Clinton, so you can't really tell anything about how voters will react to advanced age from that. McCain is 72, but if he wins & proves Americans don't care overmuch about age, Biden running in 2016 becomes moot anyway.

I don't think Dole considered himself a sacrificial lamb in mid-1995 when he declared his candidacy.  The question is whether Biden will run, not whether he'll win.  I suppose it's possible that McCain losing 12 years after Dole's loss will dissuade any septugenarians from running in the future, but I doubt it.  Especially if Obama's victory is fairly narrow.  People will say that he *could* have won, if the environment just hadn't been so terrible for the GOP.
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J. J.
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« Reply #19 on: August 25, 2008, 10:23:18 AM »

He has to win one in a row, first.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #20 on: August 25, 2008, 11:06:37 AM »

He has to win one in a row, first.

Well duh.  This is obviously a hypothetical.
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ShadowRocket
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« Reply #21 on: October 22, 2008, 04:48:58 PM »

Most accounts I've read have suggested that after abandoning his '08 run, he's lost interest in running for the top slot.

If Obama is popular and Biden is in good health, I could see him be tempted to make a run, but I think I will bet against a Biden in '16 run for now.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #22 on: October 22, 2008, 04:56:34 PM »

He will.
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Daniel Z
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« Reply #23 on: October 22, 2008, 09:54:40 PM »

I agree that there is a good chance that Biden would not run in 2016 for reasons already stated, but it's certainly not impossible. He would only be a little older than McCain or Dole and other countries have had older leaders. If I had to put an arbitrary percentage on the odds of him running I would say 35%.
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Frodo
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« Reply #24 on: October 22, 2008, 10:01:14 PM »
« Edited: October 23, 2008, 04:55:00 PM by Frodo »

Disclaimer -I have not read the rest of this thread:

I think that given his age, Joe Biden will be to Barack Obama what Dick Cheney is to George W. Bush.  He is a man that Obama can trust without having to keep an eye over his shoulder lest his Vice-President begin plotting on undermining his presidency for his own ambitions. 

This is why Obama picked Biden over Hillary Clinton, IMHO. 
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