VA: Public Policy Polling: Obama ahead of McCain

[Josh/Devilman88]

New Poll: Virginia President by Public Policy Polling on 2008-08-22

Summary: D: 47%, R: 45%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Person Man]

He could win Virginia...doubt it, I gave him a 15% chance of winning in in the spring. I now give him a 50% chance of winning it.

[Sbane]

I wouldn't be surprised if the undecideds went heavily to Mccain. This will be a hard state for Obama to close. They just need to turn out every potential Obama vote and hope Mccain ignores the state.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

[Vsanto5]

Finally.  I was waiting for this poll to come out.  Not like it's all credible but at least someone is polling Virginia.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Finally.  I was waiting for this poll to come out.  Not like it's all credible but at least someone is polling Virginia.

Are you joking?  Virginia is one of the most polled states out there, and this is certainly a credible poll.

[Eraserhead]

Could very well be the Ohio/Florida/etc. of this year...

[Ronnie]

Could very well be the Ohio/Florida/etc. of this year...

Nah, it's hard to see VA being a tipping point state, just because it would lean GOP in accordance to the national average no matter what.  Colorado on the other hand is almost certain to be a tipping point state unless Ohio goes to Obama.

If Obama wins VA, he has already won CO.

[exopolitician]

Obama has campaigned alot here since he clinched the nomination...so I guess im not really surprised. It keeps flipping back and forth tough....which is definately frustrating.

[MODU]

Finally.  I was waiting for this poll to come out.  Not like it's all credible but at least someone is polling Virginia.

Are you joking?  Virginia is one of the most polled states out there, and this is certainly a credible poll.

Well, I'm not quite sold on credible.  These percentage figures match the June numbers exactly, with the only difference being the number polled.  You would expect some sort of shift ... somewhere.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Finally.  I was waiting for this poll to come out.  Not like it's all credible but at least someone is polling Virginia.

Are you joking?  Virginia is one of the most polled states out there, and this is certainly a credible poll.

Well, I'm not quite sold on credible.  These percentage figures match the June numbers exactly, with the only difference being the number polled.  You would expect some sort of shift ... somewhere.

Rasy July and Aug poll has the same number for Obama and McCain.

[emailking]

He could win Virginia...doubt it, I gave him a 15% chance of winning in in the spring. I now give him a 50% chance of winning it.

By this logic I could flip a coin and "doubt" that it would be tails. Or heads for that matter.

[MODU]

Finally.  I was waiting for this poll to come out.  Not like it's all credible but at least someone is polling Virginia.

Are you joking?  Virginia is one of the most polled states out there, and this is certainly a credible poll.

Well, I'm not quite sold on credible.  These percentage figures match the June numbers exactly, with the only difference being the number polled.  You would expect some sort of shift ... somewhere.

Rasy July and Aug poll has the same number for Obama and McCain.

I didn't like those either.  It's hard to believe with all that's been going on that there wouldn't be any shift somewhere.

[Gustaf]

I'm not a big fan of PPP. And I really don't think Obama is ahead by 2% in Virginia atm.

[Vsanto5]

yea ..............................and with 98% of precincts reporting we have McCain by a nose!

.....................................numbers coming in at this moment have McCain ahead of Obama 49% to 48%... ..........................................................ok Anderson, Its 3am and the polls have been closed for hours we have only republican counties left and we are going to call the state for McCain 49% to 48%............................ LOL

[Sbane]

yea ..............................and with 98% of precincts reporting we have McCain by a nose!

.....................................numbers coming in at this moment have McCain ahead of Obama 49% to 48%... ..........................................................ok Anderson, Its 3am and the polls have been closed for hours we have only republican counties left and we are going to call the state for McCain 49% to 48%............................ LOL

Yup and replicate this exact scenario with Colorado except Obama wins there. You have NM and OH going to Obama and Mccain respectively by 50-48.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

As much as I would love to see Obama win Virginia (and I think he will in the end), it's not the tipping point state.  That would be Colorado.  Whoever wins Colorado wins this election. 

[Verily]

yea ..............................and with 98% of precincts reporting we have McCain by a nose!

.....................................numbers coming in at this moment have McCain ahead of Obama 49% to 48%... ..........................................................ok Anderson, Its 3am and the polls have been closed for hours we have only republican counties left and we are going to call the state for McCain 49% to 48%............................ LOL

Ah, except it's Democratic areas which report late in Virginia. Thus my false call for Allen very late in 2006 (at around 2 a.m. IIRC).

[CPT MikeyMike]

As much as I would love to see Obama win Virginia (and I think he will in the end), it's not the tipping point state.  That would be Colorado.  Whoever wins Colorado wins this election. 

If Obama wins Virginia (which I don't think he will), and we are assuming that he takes all of John Kerry's 2004 states, then those '04 states, plus Iowa (which I think Obama will win) plus Virginia would give Obama 272 and the win so here Colorado wouldn't be necessary for him.

However, without VA, Obama keeps the '04 blue states, adds IA with CO and NM, that would give him 273 which sees more doable for Obama.  After doing this, it makes me miss Tim Russert figuring out who wins on a dry erase board.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

yea ..............................and with 98% of precincts reporting we have McCain by a nose!

.....................................numbers coming in at this moment have McCain ahead of Obama 49% to 48%... ..........................................................ok Anderson, Its 3am and the polls have been closed for hours we have only republican counties left and we are going to call the state for McCain 49% to 48%............................ LOL

Ah, except it's Democratic areas which report late in Virginia. Thus my false call for Allen very late in 2006 (at around 2 a.m. IIRC).

Exactly; I remember watching results at around 2 AM with Allen ahead, but still thinking Webb would win.