Former Senate candidate Hoeffel comments on 2010 race.

[Keystone Phil]

Hoeffel says Schwartz, Sestak and Murphy would be good candidates - http://www.politickerpa.com/danh/1397/hoeffel-offers-advice-potential-specter-opponents


A Schwartz - Sestak - Murphy battle would be a disaster for the Dems. Find a random western PA candidate and he or she ought to have a big advantage. I highly doubt Sestak and Murphy plan on a 2010 run though. It's too tough to take on Schwartz and 2012 might be a lot better (if Casey steps aside).

[YRABNNRM]

WHAT ABOUT CHRIS?

[Keystone Phil]

WHAT ABOUT CHRIS?

Actually...


http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/blogs/fortyfourthestate/show_comments.php?entry_id=3095

[True Democrat]

Ravenstahl turns 30 in February of 2008, so I guess if the race is split between a bunch of Eastern Dems, he could jump in, but I really doubt it.

He's gunning for Onorato's job when he becomes Governor (and when the city and county are combined).

[Keystone Phil]

Ravenstahl turns 30 in February of 2008, so I guess if the race is split between a bunch of Eastern Dems, he could jump in, but I really doubt it.

He's gunning for Onorato's job when he becomes Governor (and when the city and county are combined).

Onorato won't be winning, my friend. 

For some reason, I don't see Ravenstahl running statewide.

[True Democrat]

Ravenstahl turns 30 in February of 2008, so I guess if the race is split between a bunch of Eastern Dems, he could jump in, but I really doubt it.

He's gunning for Onorato's job when he becomes Governor (and when the city and county are combined).

Onorato won't be winning, my friend. 

For some reason, I don't see Ravenstahl running statewide.

He has a serious problem with being in the wrong place at the wrong time doing the wrong thing (sometimes on purpose).

Basically, he likes to attend different evengs sponsored by UPMC and other companies using mayoral money (or something like that, I can't remember exactly), which gets him into a bit of trouble.

[Keystone Phil]

Ravenstahl turns 30 in February of 2008, so I guess if the race is split between a bunch of Eastern Dems, he could jump in, but I really doubt it.

He's gunning for Onorato's job when he becomes Governor (and when the city and county are combined).

Onorato won't be winning, my friend. 

For some reason, I don't see Ravenstahl running statewide.

He has a serious problem with being in the wrong place at the wrong time doing the wrong thing (sometimes on purpose).

Basically, he likes to attend different evengs sponsored by UPMC and other companies using mayoral money (or something like that, I can't remember exactly), which gets him into a bit of trouble.

Oh, I know all about it. I didn't see that stuff holding him back though. He overcame it as Mayor. Then again, maybe statewide voters wouldn't be as forgiving.

[True Democrat]

Ravenstahl turns 30 in February of 2008, so I guess if the race is split between a bunch of Eastern Dems, he could jump in, but I really doubt it.

He's gunning for Onorato's job when he becomes Governor (and when the city and county are combined).

Onorato won't be winning, my friend. 

For some reason, I don't see Ravenstahl running statewide.

He has a serious problem with being in the wrong place at the wrong time doing the wrong thing (sometimes on purpose).

Basically, he likes to attend different evengs sponsored by UPMC and other companies using mayoral money (or something like that, I can't remember exactly), which gets him into a bit of trouble.

Oh, I know all about it. I didn't see that stuff holding him back though. He overcame it as Mayor. Then again, maybe statewide voters wouldn't be as forgiving.

He overcame it to win, which isn't hard for a Democrat in Pittsburgh.  DeSantis did get the highest % for a Republican since in the 60s in last year's election, and he even got the endorsement of the Post-Gazette, which I thought was very impressive.

[Keystone Phil]

He overcame it to win, which isn't hard for a Democrat in Pittsburgh.  DeSantis did get the highest % for a Republican since in the 60s in last year's election, and he even got the endorsement of the Post-Gazette, which I thought was very impressive.

Yeah, he did everything he could to make that race "close" but it wasn't even close, in the end.

[Ronnie]

On a different note, I really hope Specter doesn't lose the primary.  If a far-rightist like Toomey wins the primary, it will guarantee nothing but a likely pickup for the Democrats.

[Keystone Phil]

On a different note, I really hope Specter doesn't lose the primary.  If a far-rightist like Toomey wins the primary, it will guarantee nothing but a likely pickup for the Democrats.

Toomey isn't a far rightist. Toomey ran and won (three times) in a seat that many Dems consider a swing seat. People underestimate the guy. If he's running against a liberal, Jewish woman from Philadelphia (Schwartz) then you must be crazy to think that it is "nothing but a likely pickup for the Democrats."

[Ronnie]

On a different note, I really hope Specter doesn't lose the primary.  If a far-rightist like Toomey wins the primary, it will guarantee nothing but a likely pickup for the Democrats.

Toomey isn't a far rightist. Toomey ran and won (three times) in a seat that many Dems consider a swing seat. People underestimate the guy. If he's running against a liberal, Jewish woman from Philadelphia (Schwartz) then you must be crazy to think that it is "nothing but a likely pickup for the Democrats."

Well, I still hold hope that Specter wins the primary.  All indications showed that Toomey would have lost to Hoeffel in 2004.

[HardRCafé]

All indications showed that Toomey would have lost to Hoeffel in 2004.

Can you name one?

[Ronnie]

All indications showed that Toomey would have lost to Hoeffel in 2004.

Can you name one?

I heard that many Democrats and independents that supported Specter wouldn't have supported Toomey.  Correct me if I'm wrong, though.

[Keystone Phil]

All indications showed that Toomey would have lost to Hoeffel in 2004.

Can you name one?

I heard that many Democrats and independents that supported Specter wouldn't have supported Toomey.  Correct me if I'm wrong, though.

You're right but this is overstated. Hoeffel was a bad candidate. Would he have benefitted from straight party voting? Sure. Would it have been enough? No, I don't think so. Toomey also had a lot of strength among Democrats in his area (the Lehigh Valley).

[Ronnie]

All indications showed that Toomey would have lost to Hoeffel in 2004.

Can you name one?

I heard that many Democrats and independents that supported Specter wouldn't have supported Toomey.  Correct me if I'm wrong, though.

You're right but this is overstated. Hoeffel was a bad candidate. Would he have benefitted from straight party voting? Sure. Would it have been enough? No, I don't think so. Toomey also had a lot of strength among Democrats in his area (the Lehigh Valley).

Are you saying that the Democrats would have voted for Toomey in similar numbers as Specter in places like Pittsburgh, Philly suburbs, and Scranton?

I have to express my doubts, yo.

[Keystone Phil]

All indications showed that Toomey would have lost to Hoeffel in 2004.

Can you name one?

I heard that many Democrats and independents that supported Specter wouldn't have supported Toomey.  Correct me if I'm wrong, though.

You're right but this is overstated. Hoeffel was a bad candidate. Would he have benefitted from straight party voting? Sure. Would it have been enough? No, I don't think so. Toomey also had a lot of strength among Democrats in his area (the Lehigh Valley).

Are you saying that the Democrats would have voted for Toomey in similar numbers as Specter in places like Pittsburgh, Philly suburbs, and Scranton?

I have to express my doubts, yo.

No, I'm not but he'd be very strong in a very important area. Also, the Constitution party candidate wouldn't have run, bringing in more votes for Toomey.

[Ronnie]

All indications showed that Toomey would have lost to Hoeffel in 2004.

Can you name one?

I heard that many Democrats and independents that supported Specter wouldn't have supported Toomey.  Correct me if I'm wrong, though.

You're right but this is overstated. Hoeffel was a bad candidate. Would he have benefitted from straight party voting? Sure. Would it have been enough? No, I don't think so. Toomey also had a lot of strength among Democrats in his area (the Lehigh Valley).

Are you saying that the Democrats would have voted for Toomey in similar numbers as Specter in places like Pittsburgh, Philly suburbs, and Scranton?

I have to express my doubts, yo.

No, I'm not but he'd be very strong in a very important area. Also, the Constitution party candidate wouldn't have run, bringing in more votes for Toomey.

I can see Toomey doing as well as Bush in '04.  He would lose Allegheny and Lackawanna counties by double digits, Delaware and Montgomery county by high single digits; Bucks by mid single digits; and doing substantially worse than Specter in Pennsylvania county.

I can't see him doing better than Specter anywhere really.

[Keystone Phil]

I can see Toomey doing as well as Bush in '04.  He would lose Allegheny and Lackawanna counties by double digits, Delaware and Montgomery county by high single digits; Bucks by mid single digits; and doing substantially worse than Specter in Pennsylvania county.

I can't see him doing better than Specter anywhere really.

No, Delaware and Montco would be double digit losses as well. He'd have a chance at losing Allegheny and Lackawanna by high single digits though.

I don't know what "Pennsylvania county" is.

He'd do better than Specter in the "T" and Lehigh Valley. Quite possibly better in a few places out west where they don't really adore Specter.

[Ronnie]

I can see Toomey doing as well as Bush in '04.  He would lose Allegheny and Lackawanna counties by double digits, Delaware and Montgomery county by high single digits; Bucks by mid single digits; and doing substantially worse than Specter in Pennsylvania county.

I can't see him doing better than Specter anywhere really.

No, Delaware and Montco would be double digit losses as well. He'd have a chance at losing Allegheny and Lackawanna by high single digits though.

I don't know what "Pennsylvania county" is.

He'd do better than Specter in the "T" and Lehigh Valley. Quite possibly better in a few places out west where they don't really adore Specter.

Sorry, I meant Philadelphia county.

As for T and Lehigh Valley, Specter owned there anyway and turnout was high there even among conservatives according to my calculations.  There wasn't so much room for improvement.

I'll give you that it would be extremely close between Toomey and Hoeffel, probably the winner winning by no more than 2 percent. 

The bottom line is that Specter is a much more safe nominee than any conservative Republican running.  He just has more bipartisan appeal than most Republicans. 

[Keystone Phil]

As for T and Lehigh Valley, Specter owned there anyway and turnout was high there even among conservatives according to my calculations.  There wasn't so much room for improvement.

There certainly was room for improvement. I can bet that a lot of conservatives skipped Specter or voted for Clymer.

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And I'll never argue against that.

[Ronnie]

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Fine, let's assume that half of Clymer supporters were disgruntled conservatives.  That's just 2% of the vote, which fills up some of the cracks that Specter lost against Hoeffel.  However, that just translates from a ~4 percent loss to perhaps a 2% loss.

I'm just a bit partial to Specter, since I think he has been a fine senator, and I'd be f**ing pissed if we lose a senate seat just because the right wing doesn't think he is "conservative" enough for them.

[Keystone Phil]

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Fine, let's assume that half of Clymer supporters were disgruntled conservatives.  That's just 2% of the vote, which fills up some of the cracks that Specter lost against Hoeffel.  However, that just translates from a ~4 percent loss to perhaps a 2% loss.

Half? Clymer ran as the Constitution party candidate. Most of these people are far right wingers.

[Ronnie]

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Fine, let's assume that half of Clymer supporters were disgruntled conservatives.  That's just 2% of the vote, which fills up some of the cracks that Specter lost against Hoeffel.  However, that just translates from a ~4 percent loss to perhaps a 2% loss.

Half? Clymer ran as the Constitution party candidate. Most of these people are far right wingers.

I allocated the other half to people who are actually part of the constitution and libertarian parties.  It's probably not exactly half (maybe 1.5%), but it is a pretty good estimate.

But what's your opinion of Specter?  Just curious to see if you are trying to agree or disagree with me.

[Keystone Phil]

I allocated the other half to people who are actually part of the constitution and libertarian parties.  It's probably not exactly half (maybe 1.5%), but it is a pretty good estimate.

Why are Libertarians being factored in? They ran someone seperate.

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My opinion of the man has no connection to my analysis. I agree that he is a more electable candidate and great bipartisan appeal but I do not like the man at all.