Sarah Palin is a nearly flawless choice for Vice-President, assuming she has been thoroughly vetted and has no skeletons in her closet. While a VP choice isn't what makes a campaign entirely, it often strongly contributes to a campaign's failure. Witness, McGovern-Eagleton/Shriver or Bush/Quayle.
Here's why Palin works...
2. She came into prominence in Alaska as a reformer. The Alaska Republican party was and is steeped in corruption. Palin spoke out against that corruption, but remained a Republican. She has been untouched by the scandal. She has her own mini-scandal, but folks...unless the whole story hasn't been told, it has no legs. (She used her influence to get a state trooper fired. The cop was the spouse of Palin's sister and was involved in a bitter custody battle.)
5. Palin will peel off the most disgruntled, disaffected Hillary voters. Not many...because she's pretty extreme on abortion. But those who wanted a woman in the White House, or a heartbeat away, and are furious with Obama...might be willing to snub him by voting for Palin because she's a woman. Let's face it. Some people are going to vote for Obama just because he's black. Well, some people will vote for Palin just because she's a woman.
6. Joe Biden is smarter on foreign affairs and far more experienced. But he also can get seriously tough on his opponents. If he ate Tim Pawlenty or Rob Portman alive, it would be politics. If he eats sweet Sarah alive, he's a monster. Biden is going to have to be very, very careful in how he speaks to and about her. And Biden could easily err by being too aggressive. Or, by being too timid in an effort not to turn people off. This pick hobbles Biden significantly.
7. Obama has the youth vote, no doubt. But, those undecided male voters -- in the 18 to 35 age range -- will gravitate to the Republican ticket. They'll like McCain's toughness and heroism. But they'll also like the fact that Palin is smokin' hot. Am I saying some people vote for superficial reasons? Hell, yes. Voting for Obama just because he's black...voting for Hillary just because she's a woman...voting against someone because they are fat or old or black or whatever...it's all stupid. But millions of Americans do it. I don't mean to say Palin lacks substance. ON THE CONTRARY. Every interview I have seen with her impresses me. She is intelligent, articulate and kind. I don't want to take anything away from her...just as people should not take away from Obama. But that doesn't change the fact that some people don't care about issues, intellect or character. They care about looks.
8. Any bounce from this convention is completely nullified. Palin is exciting. Portman, not so much. LOL
I disagree with your big trouble assessment. It's too early to tell.
On these points, I generally agree.
The key is this:
28% of Hillary voters will vote for McCain. This will not decrease that number.
48% will vote for Obama. This will not decrease that number.
30% say they don't know if they will vote, or, if they will, for whom, we don't know whom they will vote. While I am skeptical of a great swinging to McCain by the Palin choice, even 1/3 of this group swinging could blast Obama out of the water.
It does something more. McCain has
chosen a governor, from outside of the DC power structure, a reformer, and a
young reformer. Obama has
chosen an insider, from the DC power structure (and actually close to DC geographically), who has been holding the same office since I was in the fifth grade (and Palin was in the the 3rd or 4th grade).
Between these two, which
choice is more of a change, is more forward looking, and more reformist?
