leading 2012 GOP presidential candidates as of early 2009?--Aug. '08 edition

[Mr. Morden]

Now that both candidates have picked their running mates, it's time for another iteration of this poll.  In just a few months, right after the '08 general election, this board will be knee deep in speculation over who will run in 2012.  But why wait that long?

For the purpose of this poll, assume that Obama beats McCain in November.  Now here's the question: In early 2009 (just ~6 months from now), who do you think will make up the media-annointed "first tier" of potential contenders for the 2012 Republican nomination?

You can pick up to three names, but just to be clear, these are the people who you think the media and political insiders will regard as the initial "first tier".  It doesn't mean that they'll be leading in the early 2012 polls, just as (for example) Mitt Romney was regarded as a "first tier" candidate well before he reached double digits in the national polls.  (Likewise, George Allen would have been considered a "first tier" 2008 candidate in late 2005 / early 2006, but in his case his candidacy didn't go anywhere, for obvious reasons.)

Here are the top vote getters from this poll from May:

(name, followed by # of votes)

Romney 19
Huckabee 18
Sanford 9
Palin 7
Crist 6
Jindal 5

[YRABNNRM]

Romney
Jindal
Palin

Honorable Mention: Huckabee, Pawlenty

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Crist, Jindal, and Romney.

[Person Man]

Huckabee, Jindal and Romney.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Jindal, Palin, Thune, Chris Christie, Romney

[Frodo]

Mike Huckabee
Bobby Jindal
Mitt Romney

[NDN]

Romney
Jindal
Palin

Honorable Mention: Huckabee, Pawlenty

What do you mean mentions? Huckabee has far more of a shot than Bobby the Demon Slayer.

[YRABNNRM]

Romney
Jindal
Palin

Honorable Mention: Huckabee, Pawlenty

What do you mean mentions? Huckabee has far more of a shot than Bobby the Demon Slayer.

Maybe but the question isn't who has the best shot.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Palin, Romney and Pawlenty

[GMantis]

Huckabee, Jindal and Romney

[ShadowRocket]

Romney, Huckabee, and Jindal. Maybe throw in Thune and Pawlenty.

I'm not sure if Palin would go anywhere since it has been shown twice in the last 10 years that be the losing VP candidate from the previous election isn't a recipe for success.

[KeyKeeper]

Palin, Romney and Jindal

[DownWithTheLeft]

Jindal, Palin, Thune, Chris Christie, Romney

Scratch Chris Christie, I didn't realize it was early 2009

[pragmatic liberal]

Depending on how she fares in this election, Sarah Palin.
Bobby Jindal may well run, but if Obama is popular, he may wait till 2016.
Romney and Huckabee will probably run.
John Thune might run and Haley Barbour may run.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Romney, Huckabee, Jindal, Thune and maybe Palin depending on how bad the loss is in 2008 and how Palin is blamed or not.

[Хahar 🤔]

Romney, Palin, Huckabee

[phk]

Romney, Palin, Huckabee

[Ronnie]

I think Huckabee would be a pretty good nominee.  He should be the front runner along with Palin if McCain were to lose the election.

[JSojourner]

Romney, Palin, Huckabee for sure.  (Barring scandal.)

What's interesting to think about is whether or not there will be a more center-right or even centrist Republican running.  This time around, we had McCain.  Conservative, but still capable of some individuation.  And Paul, who, though pretty far right on some issues was antiwar.

Come 2012, might there be a GOP moderate in the pack?  You look at those three and adding Jindal, Pence, Thune or just about any sitting GOP senator from states not named Maine would be more of the same.  Doesn't mean they won't run.  But how would a Thune or a Pence distinguish himself?

Could someone like Bob Corker, Linda Lingle or Jim Douglas mount an insurgent campaign?  I guess a lot would depend on how the right wing is perceived.  No question Giuliani is out of the picture.  Jodi Rell and Judd Gregg would be in their mid to late 60's I think.

Whaddyou guys think?

[Beet]

Initially, Romney, Palin and Huckabee, but it would depend on Obama's subsequent performance, and the results of the 2010 elections.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Romney, Palin, Huckabee for sure.  (Barring scandal.)

What's interesting to think about is whether or not there will be a more center-right or even centrist Republican running.  This time around, we had McCain.  Conservative, but still capable of some individuation.  And Paul, who, though pretty far right on some issues was antiwar.

Come 2012, might there be a GOP moderate in the pack?  You look at those three and adding Jindal, Pence, Thune or just about any sitting GOP senator from states not named Maine would be more of the same.  Doesn't mean they won't run.  But how would a Thune or a Pence distinguish himself?

Could someone like Bob Corker, Linda Lingle or Jim Douglas mount an insurgent campaign?  I guess a lot would depend on how the right wing is perceived.  No question Giuliani is out of the picture.  Jodi Rell and Judd Gregg would be in their mid to late 60's I think.

Whaddyou guys think?

Why would a moderate Republican run? No one who wasn't completely batsh**t crazy has gotten the nomination since 1976.

[JSojourner]

Romney, Palin, Huckabee for sure.  (Barring scandal.)

What's interesting to think about is whether or not there will be a more center-right or even centrist Republican running.  This time around, we had McCain.  Conservative, but still capable of some individuation.  And Paul, who, though pretty far right on some issues was antiwar.

Come 2012, might there be a GOP moderate in the pack?  You look at those three and adding Jindal, Pence, Thune or just about any sitting GOP senator from states not named Maine would be more of the same.  Doesn't mean they won't run.  But how would a Thune or a Pence distinguish himself?

Could someone like Bob Corker, Linda Lingle or Jim Douglas mount an insurgent campaign?  I guess a lot would depend on how the right wing is perceived.  No question Giuliani is out of the picture.  Jodi Rell and Judd Gregg would be in their mid to late 60's I think.

Whaddyou guys think?

Why would a moderate Republican run? No one who wasn't completely batsh**t crazy has gotten the nomination since 1976.

But sometimes they run.  That's my point. 

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I think Huckabee would be a pretty good nominee.  He should be the front runner along with Palin if McCain were to lose the election.

If Huckabee becomes a front runner than so would Romney. Love him or hate him he did come in second in popular votes and an arguement could be made that he was in second pace because of that. Romney also had a broad appeal, unlike Huckabee who came in 6th or 5th among Non-Evengelicals, When he was still in the race Romney did better in the South(Hucks base) then Huckabee did out West(Romney's base). Granted I am a little biased but a non-biased opinion who have to have both if one is included.

[DownWithTheLeft]

This is EARLY 2009 that we are predicting.  What are the chances somebody completely random comes out by then?  Next to none

[politicaltipster]

My guess would be Palin, Romney (and Huckabee) - even if Palin makes a major gaffe she'll play the role of Pat Buchanan to Romney's Bob Dole. Barring Palin being hounded from politics she'll cut into Huckabee's core constinuency enough to make him unelectable.

As an aside in 2004 I thought that McCain would walk the 2008 nomination. Indeed, just after the 2004 election when bookmakers were offering 35/1 on McCain winning in 2008. I seriously thought about putting £1,000 and then laying it off when his odds shortened - little did I think that he would be 25/1 to win the GOP nomination by November 2007. My guess is that if Obama wins the time will be perfect for an independent candidacy as no Democrat would dare challenge Obama and there is no plausible centrist Republican.