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Author Topic: ICR New Poll - Bush - 48.2, Kerry 47.3  (Read 3803 times)
mddem2004
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« on: September 08, 2004, 04:37:19 pm »
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As for the Bush Bouce - "What goes up, must come down...."

http://www.icrsurvey.com/ICRInTheNews/Presidential_Tracker_0907.html
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« Reply #1 on: September 08, 2004, 04:48:12 pm »
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Bush up 11 among independents and only 1 overall.  I don't buy that one.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #2 on: September 08, 2004, 04:50:49 pm »
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Bush up 11 among independents and only 1 overall.  I don't buy that one.

You are 100% correct

The pollsters are having a bad week.

The village idiots at Time and Newsweek have Bush +11, and now ICR says it's tied.

I would love to see more of this ICR poll, but something is just plain wrong.
« Last Edit: September 08, 2004, 04:51:27 pm by The Vorlon »Logged

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A18
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« Reply #3 on: September 08, 2004, 04:51:19 pm »
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REGISTERED voters. Unlike LIKELY voters, which would be the polls that actually matter.
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ATFFL
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« Reply #4 on: September 08, 2004, 04:55:41 pm »
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Lets take a quick peek at their last poll.

http://www.icrsurvey.com/ICRInTheNews/Presidential_Tracker.html

They had Bush at 45.3% and Kerry at 48%.  Bush is now at 48.2%.  They call this a 2 point bounce.  Either they are bad at math, have a really strict rounding error, or intentionally tried to lowball the bounce in their report.

Also, we all pretty much agree that Bush was not down nearly 3% heading into his convention.  He was up between 1 and 3% in Vorlon's rolling poll average.

WIthout seeing the internals I will wager they have a too high proportion of democrats.

Also, this poll was done as part of their omnibus marketing research.  Their respondents got asked political questions in the middle of being asked a lot of marketing research questions.

Mddem, I did not expect you to get this desperate for good news for Kerry.
« Last Edit: September 08, 2004, 04:56:51 pm by Tredrick »Logged
Blue Rectangle
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« Reply #5 on: September 08, 2004, 04:58:53 pm »
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Poll was from Sept. 1-5, so it includes:
Just before Bush's speech
Just after Bush's speech
The Labor Day weekend

Bleh.  We're just going to have to wait until things settle down.
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« Reply #6 on: September 08, 2004, 04:59:52 pm »
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If the independents are swinging to Bush by double digit, you'd have to assume either:

1) Bush is losing a lot more Republicans than Kerry is losing Democrats.  That I don't believe for a second.

or

2) There are a hell of a lot more Democrats in this poll than Republicans.  I pick door #2.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #7 on: September 08, 2004, 05:06:28 pm »
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If the independents are swinging to Bush by double digit, you'd have to assume either:

1) Bush is losing a lot more Republicans than Kerry is losing Democrats.  That I don't believe for a second.

or

2) There are a hell of a lot more Democrats in this poll than Republicans.  I pick door #2.

No way to really know

If we ballpark Republicans at 90% / 5% for Bush

and

If we ballpark Democrats at 85% / 10% for Kerry

then

This would imply a party ID breakout of

Dems 39%
GOP 32%
Indy 29%

+/- a huge magin of error Smiley

Hey... it's one more poll Smiley

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Shira
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« Reply #8 on: September 08, 2004, 05:28:58 pm »
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As for the Bush Bouce - "What goes up, must come down...."

There is no reason for your optimism. Kerry is in a very bad shape.
The numbers now are probably around the 51:47 in favor of Bush.
Because of Kerry's stupidity on Iraq some more millions will lose their health insurance and more Americans (not Kerry) will go below the poverty line.

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« Reply #9 on: September 08, 2004, 05:30:42 pm »
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Yes, if Kerry is not elected MILLIONS are doomed to poverty.
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A18
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« Reply #10 on: September 08, 2004, 05:31:03 pm »
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YES! The more Americans that don't have health insurance, the better.
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JNB
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« Reply #11 on: September 08, 2004, 06:50:28 pm »
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YES! The more Americans that don't have health insurance, the better.

   You guys need to expand your world a bit more beyond talk radio pundits.
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« Reply #12 on: September 08, 2004, 06:56:09 pm »
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Talk radio?  I figured Shira was getting her quotes from Franken.
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Defarge
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« Reply #13 on: September 08, 2004, 07:33:14 pm »
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Just as Time and Newsweek having Bush up 11, this having Bush up only 1 is ridiculous.  We can all agree Bush's lead is at least 3 right now.  Whether Kerry will recover remains up in the air
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« Reply #14 on: September 08, 2004, 07:38:22 pm »
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I agree that the lead is probably 3 or 4.  Time and Newsweek are nutty and ICB looks dumb because niether candidate is winning independents by 11 and tied nationally.
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CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #15 on: September 08, 2004, 07:58:30 pm »
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If the independents are swinging to Bush by double digit, you'd have to assume either:

1) Bush is losing a lot more Republicans than Kerry is losing Democrats.  That I don't believe for a second.

or

2) There are a hell of a lot more Democrats in this poll than Republicans.  I pick door #2.

No way to really know

If we ballpark Republicans at 90% / 5% for Bush

and

If we ballpark Democrats at 85% / 10% for Kerry

then

This would imply a party ID breakout of

Dems 39%
GOP 32%
Indy 29%

+/- a huge magin of error Smiley

Hey... it's one more poll Smiley



My figures agree with yours.

This approaches a CBS or LA Times poll for loading.
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mddem2004
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« Reply #16 on: September 08, 2004, 09:20:13 pm »
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Lets take a quick peek at their last poll.

http://www.icrsurvey.com/ICRInTheNews/Presidential_Tracker.html

They had Bush at 45.3% and Kerry at 48%.  Bush is now at 48.2%.  They call this a 2 point bounce.  Either they are bad at math, have a really strict rounding error, or intentionally tried to lowball the bounce in their report.

Also, we all pretty much agree that Bush was not down nearly 3% heading into his convention.  He was up between 1 and 3% in Vorlon's rolling poll average.

WIthout seeing the internals I will wager they have a too high proportion of democrats.

Also, this poll was done as part of their omnibus marketing research.  Their respondents got asked political questions in the middle of being asked a lot of marketing research questions.

Mddem, I did not expect you to get this desperate for good news for Kerry.
Nice Poke ATFFL Smiley  
 I don't know anything about this firm other than their last poll in August seemed reasonable. I was just surprised that nobody saw this one out there before I.

Nahhh.....No worries here (YET)! Bush I say is probably up by 3% in the real world - That ain't a huge lead by any measure......
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Shira
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« Reply #17 on: September 08, 2004, 09:24:00 pm »
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Talk radio?  I figured Shira was getting her quotes from Franken.

I have never  had the chance to listen to Franken.
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LucysBeau
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« Reply #18 on: September 09, 2004, 10:17:21 am »
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The polls do seem to be rather erratic at the moment.

Dave
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nomorelies
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« Reply #19 on: September 09, 2004, 10:28:40 am »
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Once the polls settle down it will be a dead heat again.
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TheBulldog
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« Reply #20 on: September 09, 2004, 11:03:52 am »
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The polls will sto being so close when America realizes how bad bush is
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