ICR New Poll - Bush - 48.2, Kerry 47.3

[mddem2004]

As for the Bush Bouce - "What goes up, must come down...."

http://www.icrsurvey.com/ICRInTheNews/Presidential_Tracker_0907.html

[agcatter]

Bush up 11 among independents and only 1 overall.  I don't buy that one.

[The Vorlon]

Bush up 11 among independents and only 1 overall.  I don't buy that one.

You are 100% correct

The pollsters are having a bad week.

The village idiots at Time and Newsweek have Bush +11, and now ICR says it's tied.

I would love to see more of this ICR poll, but something is just plain wrong.

[A18]

REGISTERED voters. Unlike LIKELY voters, which would be the polls that actually matter.

[ATFFL]

Lets take a quick peek at their last poll.

http://www.icrsurvey.com/ICRInTheNews/Presidential_Tracker.html

They had Bush at 45.3% and Kerry at 48%.  Bush is now at 48.2%.  They call this a 2 point bounce.  Either they are bad at math, have a really strict rounding error, or intentionally tried to lowball the bounce in their report.

Also, we all pretty much agree that Bush was not down nearly 3% heading into his convention.  He was up between 1 and 3% in Vorlon's rolling poll average.

WIthout seeing the internals I will wager they have a too high proportion of democrats.

Also, this poll was done as part of their omnibus marketing research.  Their respondents got asked political questions in the middle of being asked a lot of marketing research questions.

Mddem, I did not expect you to get this desperate for good news for Kerry.

[Blue Rectangle]

Poll was from Sept. 1-5, so it includes:
Just before Bush's speech
Just after Bush's speech
The Labor Day weekend

Bleh.  We're just going to have to wait until things settle down.

[agcatter]

If the independents are swinging to Bush by double digit, you'd have to assume either:

1) Bush is losing a lot more Republicans than Kerry is losing Democrats.  That I don't believe for a second.

or

2) There are a hell of a lot more Democrats in this poll than Republicans.  I pick door #2.

[The Vorlon]

If the independents are swinging to Bush by double digit, you'd have to assume either:

1) Bush is losing a lot more Republicans than Kerry is losing Democrats.  That I don't believe for a second.

or

2) There are a hell of a lot more Democrats in this poll than Republicans.  I pick door #2.

No way to really know

If we ballpark Republicans at 90% / 5% for Bush

and

If we ballpark Democrats at 85% / 10% for Kerry

then

This would imply a party ID breakout of

Dems 39%
GOP 32%
Indy 29%

+/- a huge magin of error

Hey... it's one more poll

[Shira]

As for the Bush Bouce - "What goes up, must come down...."

There is no reason for your optimism. Kerry is in a very bad shape.
The numbers now are probably around the 51:47 in favor of Bush.
Because of Kerry's stupidity on Iraq some more millions will lose their health insurance and more Americans (not Kerry) will go below the poverty line.

[agcatter]

Yes, if Kerry is not elected MILLIONS are doomed to poverty.

[A18]

YES! The more Americans that don't have health insurance, the better.

[JNB]

YES! The more Americans that don't have health insurance, the better.

   You guys need to expand your world a bit more beyond talk radio pundits.

[agcatter]

Talk radio?  I figured Shira was getting her quotes from Franken.

[Defarge]

Just as Time and Newsweek having Bush up 11, this having Bush up only 1 is ridiculous.  We can all agree Bush's lead is at least 3 right now.  Whether Kerry will recover remains up in the air

[agcatter]

I agree that the lead is probably 3 or 4.  Time and Newsweek are nutty and ICB looks dumb because niether candidate is winning independents by 11 and tied nationally.

[CARLHAYDEN]

If the independents are swinging to Bush by double digit, you'd have to assume either:

1) Bush is losing a lot more Republicans than Kerry is losing Democrats.  That I don't believe for a second.

or

2) There are a hell of a lot more Democrats in this poll than Republicans.  I pick door #2.

No way to really know

If we ballpark Republicans at 90% / 5% for Bush

and

If we ballpark Democrats at 85% / 10% for Kerry

then

This would imply a party ID breakout of

Dems 39%
GOP 32%
Indy 29%

+/- a huge magin of error

Hey... it's one more poll

My figures agree with yours.

This approaches a CBS or LA Times poll for loading.

[mddem2004]

Lets take a quick peek at their last poll.

http://www.icrsurvey.com/ICRInTheNews/Presidential_Tracker.html

They had Bush at 45.3% and Kerry at 48%.  Bush is now at 48.2%.  They call this a 2 point bounce.  Either they are bad at math, have a really strict rounding error, or intentionally tried to lowball the bounce in their report.

Also, we all pretty much agree that Bush was not down nearly 3% heading into his convention.  He was up between 1 and 3% in Vorlon's rolling poll average.

WIthout seeing the internals I will wager they have a too high proportion of democrats.

Also, this poll was done as part of their omnibus marketing research.  Their respondents got asked political questions in the middle of being asked a lot of marketing research questions.

Mddem, I did not expect you to get this desperate for good news for Kerry.

Nice Poke ATFFL  
 I don't know anything about this firm other than their last poll in August seemed reasonable. I was just surprised that nobody saw this one out there before I.

Nahhh.....No worries here (YET)! Bush I say is probably up by 3% in the real world - That ain't a huge lead by any measure......

[Shira]

Talk radio?  I figured Shira was getting her quotes from Franken.

I have never  had the chance to listen to Franken.

[Democratic Hawk]

The polls do seem to be rather erratic at the moment.

Dave

[nomorelies]

Once the polls settle down it will be a dead heat again.

[TheBulldog]

The polls will sto being so close when America realizes how bad bush is