By 2100 how many nations will there be?

[Polkergeist]

In this century what do you think will happen to the world's nation-states? In the 20th century with end of colonialism the number of nations in the world has expanded to about 200, however at the turn of the century nations are now pooling their soverignty in such organisations as the EU, NAFTA and the African Union which may someday lead to federation of nations within those organisations.

As the world gets smaller with the expansion of Western Capitalism and transport and communications become more advanced, we could have a world government ?

But many prophecies have bitten the dust and we could very well have more countries or even a return to city-states as well.

What do you guys think ?

[Brambila]

I say less than 50. Europe, Russia, China, India, US, Latin American states, AFrican union, something along those lines.

[Lunar]

Many of the countries that exist today won't exist then, but I'll say...slightly less.

Power will consolidate slightly and eliminate maybe 20 countries.

[Platypus]

well, you can say goodbye to about 20 island nations (Goodbye Tuvalu! We'll miss you!) at least, but beyond that i don't think there will be drastic change. Maybe the middle east and eurasia will change around a bit, but thats really it i think.

[minionofmidas]

2100 is a bit far away, but the current trend is towards ever more, ever smaller, ever less powerful nations and ever fewer (er...no, probably not that one), ever larger, ever more powerful private corporations, and that'll continue for quite a while.
Increased cooperation between nations, regionally à la EU or worldwide à la UNO, will be the most powerful force against that, but won't mean actual fusing of nations, desirable as that may be.

[MasterJedi]

Continental Europe, minus UK and Switzerland could fuse. Also there is the possibility of a Middle Eastern Empire again.

China will also probably try to conquer some areas. Canada the Caribbean and Mexico will probably go to the US. Russia will stay the same. More than likely an African Empire and a large Latin American state.(unless they become part of the US too which is still possible.)

And either one large Pacific State or the US will probably take them.(we basically control them all anyway(and I mean the SMALL SMALL Island Nations))

[minionofmidas]

Continental Europe, minus UK and Switzerland could fuse. Also there is the possibility of a Middle Eastern Empire again.

China will also probably try to conquer some areas. Canada the Caribbean and Mexico will probably go to the US. Russia will stay the same. More than likely an African Empire and a large Latin American state.(unless they become part of the US too which is still possible.)

And either one large Pacific State or the US will probably take them.(we basically control them all anyway(and I mean the SMALL SMALL Island Nations))

Exactly that's the point - you control them anyway, you don't have to officially annex them, you've got nothing to gain from that. In fact, you used to control them directly for 45 years.
No reason to believe this pattern will change anytime soon. It's called "Neocolonialism".

[Bono]

Well, i'd say by that time New Hampshire and South Carolina would allready have gotten their independence on account of the Free State Project and Christian Exodus, so let's at least count on 2 more.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Sooner or later, the powder keg that is Africa will explode.  It amazes me  that more than four decades after most of Africa regained its independence taht the old illogical colonial borders still stand.  Africa could easily gain another 50 countries once the colonial borders crumble.

[Hatman 🍁]

I agree, at the current rate there will be more countries in the world not less. It might be nice to see some unions forming, but let's be honest: It's not gonna happen. Right now the rate of independent nations arising is slowing down a bit. Only 3 countries in fact have become independent in the last 10 years. I predict some event will happen that will suprise many however that will have a drastic impact on the amount of nations in the world.

[ilikeverin]

I agree, at the current rate there will be more countries in the world not less. It might be nice to see some unions forming, but let's be honest: It's not gonna happen. Right now the rate of independent nations arising is slowing down a bit. Only 3 countries in fact have become independent in the last 10 years. I predict some event will happen that will suprise many however that will have a drastic impact on the amount of nations in the world.

Perhaps the US will split up or something.

Then I'd make Indiana a utopia!  Yay!

[??????????]

Their will be no US by 2100.

[A18]

I don't know, but if the union is heading in the direction I think it is, I hope Virginia is one of them.

[English]

There'll be many more nations than at present. It's been the trend for decades. Eventually the US will split amicably North/South, though probably not by 2100. Scotland will split from the UK, Russia will split into several nations, many African nations will fracture due to religious divisions and Indonesia will become maybe 5 or so sovereign nations (Aceh, Bali, Rep of Java & Sumatra, West Papua and Kalimantan).
I'd estimate another 25 countries.

[The Dowager Mod]

Zero.
Some nut job will blow it all up by then.

[badnarikin04]

It will be the same as now except Chechnya, Kashmir, Palestine, and Kurdistan will become independent.

[Brambila]

It will be the same as now except Chechnya, Kashmir, Palestine, and Kurdistan will become independent.

Hopefully Assyria as well.

[Hatman 🍁]

I wonder if any of the major french possessions will become independent. i.e. New Caledonia, Martinique, French Polynesia, French Guiana, Guadeloupe. Maybe Guam, Puerto Rico, Mashall Islands, Virgin Islands.  I think for the US to break up, something major has to happen. Here's another question: what will cause the downfall of the US? (if it happens at all)

[WMS]

Either there will be disintegration leading to more countries or federations leading to less countries. Depends on how optimistic you are. I'm not very optimistic at all, so I vote for disintegration and chaos, primarily in Africa (look at an ethnic map of it sometime!) but in other places as well.

[muon2]

Either there will be disintegration leading to more countries or federations leading to less countries. Depends on how optimistic you are. I'm not very optimistic at all, so I vote for disintegration and chaos, primarily in Africa (look at an ethnic map of it sometime!) but in other places as well.

I would go a step further and say both. Some areas will see break up and others stronger federations. In some places it may look like both happen.

In areas that have artificial, generally dictatorial, nations, there will be a strong tendency for autonomy and breakdown of the old nation. The Soviet Union and Yugoslavia were 20th century examples. I agree that Africa may have some likely examples in the coming years, Eritrea may have been an early example.

A different kind of breakdown may result from areas that see greater local autonomy from traditional strong central government. By mid-century the population boom in Asia will have reversed, and I can see city-states act as semi-autonomous regions within their traditional countries. Economic factors will drive the central governments to allow this over a lengthy period of time.

Some existing economic federations may well become tighter, but the need for places like the EU to become as close knit as the US doesn't exist in the 21st century as it did in the 20th. Global factors will permit a successful multi-level government. Macroeconomic coordination can happen at the super-national level like the EU, but there will be a strong need for more state-level coordination beyond the traditional federation. With this model, a European state may set up special trading arrangements with an African state, independent of all but the most important federation decisions.

Another important federation will not have any traditional boundaries in the coming century. In just the first decade and a half of the Web, communities have arisen that follow none of the traditional boundaries. The next step after individual associations are associations of local governments. I can imagine that the loose relationships of sister cities today, become a model for for new semi-global federations in 50 to 100 years. Global alliances will be based on economies, culture, religion, recreation, and I'd expect many other factors.

It may well be that in 2100 it is hard to speak of nations as we do today. There will be more unique levels of governance both larger and smaller. The nation-state of 1600-2000 would not then have the same all-encompassing role.

[WMS]

Very interesting post, Muon! I'd forgotten about some of that.
Side note on Eritrea: actually, there's a potential Afar state encompassing Eastern Eritrea, Western Somaliland (there will be no UN-decreed artificial labeling of Somaliland as part of Somalia! ), all of Djibouti, and the neighboring part of Ethiopia...so even Eritrea isn't a full example of how far it could go!

Darn it, there's a book about all the potential little groups that could form new states, but I don't remember it...check your local university library, I suppose. There were a few in the U.S. - the Dine in the Four Corners, the eastern part of Oklahoma, and of course Puerto Rico...

[freek]

There'll be many more nations than at present. It's been the trend for decades. Eventually the US will split amicably North/South, though probably not by 2100. Scotland will split from the UK, Russia will split into several nations, many African nations will fracture due to religious divisions and Indonesia will become maybe 5 or so sovereign nations (Aceh, Bali, Rep of Java & Sumatra, West Papua and Kalimantan).
I'd estimate another 25 countries.

Don't forget Belgium and the split of Serbia & Montenegro.

[Middle-aged Europe]

You may find these two links interesting:
http://www.mherrera.org/newcountries.htm
http://www.mherrera.org/list.htm

According to this site there is a possibility of more than 50% that the following nations will become independent some day:
Western Sahara
Palestine
Northern Cyprus
Kosovo
Montenegro
Chechnya
Iraqi Kurdistan (probably the Iraqi part of Kurdistan only, without any Turkish oder Iranian territory???)
Bougainville
Somaliland
Southern Sudan
New Caledonia

Additionally, this site gives a Korean unification a possibility of 80%.

[Kodratos]

About the same

[J. J.]

Two, the US and the rest.  :-)

Seriously, I'd expect about 350.  You are seeing a lot of sectionalism.  The UK may be three nations, some of which share a monarch is 20 years.