AK-Ivan Moore: With Palin on the ticket, state solidly Republican

[Tender Branson]

The Ivan Moore Research poll of 500 likely voters in Alaska was conducted August 30-September 2 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

McCain/Palin - 54%
Obama/Biden - 35%
Undecided - 11%

A poll by the same organization conducted July 18-22 showed McCain leading Obama by only three percentage points – 47 percent to 44 percent.

Alaska has not supported a Democrat in a presidential election since 1964.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/09/04/with-palin-pick-alaska-cools-to-obama/

[??????????]

Seems low. With Palin I'd expect McCain to crack 60%. Bush got 61% in 04 with a native on the ticket I don't see why it won't go higher.

[Ronnie]

Seems low. With Palin I'd expect McCain to crack 60%. Bush got 61% in 04 with a native on the ticket I don't see why it won't go higher.

The undecideds will probably break hard for McCain.

[??????????]

Seems low. With Palin I'd expect McCain to crack 60%. Bush got 61% in 04 with a native on the ticket I don't see why it won't go higher.

The undecideds will probably break hard for McCain.

I'd be shocked if he got less then 75% of the undecideds.

McCain - 65%
Obama - 35%

[Alcon]

A 20-point bounce is a hell of a lot, even for a VP selection like this.

[Lief 🗽]

BRTD will be up in arms about this poll!

The worst part about the Palin pick is that Alaska will no longer be close.

[??????????]

A 20-point bounce is a hell of a lot, even for a VP selection like this.

Which one is the outlier though? This one seems more in step with the basic reality that is Alaska.

[Sam Spade]

A 20-point bounce is a hell of a lot, even for a VP selection like this.

A bit more than I expected too, but there's a couple of good reasons for that.

[Alcon]

A 20-point bounce is a hell of a lot, even for a VP selection like this.

A bit more than I expected too, but there's a couple of good reasons for that.

I more meant States's prediction of a 65-35 win, since I think it was already about McCain +10.

[Tender Branson]

Guys, the lady has 80% approval ratings there.

I´d be happy if Obama gets a result that's only a few points better than Kerry's.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

BRTD will be up in arms about this poll!

The worst part about the Palin pick is that Alaska will no longer be close.

It wasn't gonna be close.  Maybe for Senator, but not President.

[Ronnie]

The question is if McCain can give enough coattails to Stevens to carry him to victory.

I doubt it, though.

[CultureKing]

its one of those few states where if you choose a person from there to be on the ticket you are guarenteed to win the state. It would be the same with places like Hawaii, Deleware and such.

[??????????]

its one of those few states where if you choose a person from there to be on the ticket you are guarenteed to win the state. It would be the same with places like Hawaii, Deleware and such.

Yeah, especially considering this is the first person running for that high of an office. (I'm pretty sure?) Hometown pride and all.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Database entry: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?action=indpoll&id=220080902106

[Eraserhead]

At least Obama won't waste any more money/time here. McCain isn't going to do better than Bush did here though, even with Palin on the ticket.

[memphis]

Dems were never going to win Alaska anyway. Who cares if you win/lose by 15 or 50?

[Rococo4]

I would like nothing better than for the Republicans to be sitting on 267, 268 EVs late into the night on Nov 4 with only Alaska and Hawaii left to be called.  Alaska is called for McCain/Palin and he wins.  It would be fitting.

Palin on the ticket or not, Democrats taking Alaska was never going to happen.  That is obvious to anyone.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

No surprise really. I think she'd help Alaska if she became President, at the expense of the other 49 states.

[memphis]

No surprise really. I think she'd help Alaska if she became President, at the expense of the other 49 states.

Which is no change, of course. Alaska has always been one of the porkiest states.

[AkSaber]

No surprise really. I think she'd help Alaska if she became President, at the expense of the other 49 states.

Which is no change, of course. Alaska has always been one of the porkiest states.

Yeah, and the Lower 48 has always treated Alaska fair.

[Alcon]

No surprise really. I think she'd help Alaska if she became President, at the expense of the other 49 states.

Which is no change, of course. Alaska has always been one of the porkiest states.

Yeah, and the Lower 48 has always treated Alaska fair.

I've always kind of wondered this, and now I have an opportunity to ask.  What stokes Alaskan resentment toward the Lower 48?  Other than a boatload of pork going your guys' way because of a higher cost of living I didn't realize there was much back-and-forth.  Can you fill us in?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

No surprise really. I think she'd help Alaska if she became President, at the expense of the other 49 states.

Which is no change, of course. Alaska has always been one of the porkiest states.

Yeah, and the Lower 48 has always treated Alaska fair.

Alaska already gets back $1.84 per dollar they send to Washington. That's more than fair. Of course Mrs. Earmarks wants more than that.

[AkSaber]

I've always kind of wondered this, and now I have an opportunity to ask.  What stokes Alaskan resentment toward the Lower 48?  Other than a boatload of pork going your guys' way because of a higher cost of living I didn't realize there was much back-and-forth.  Can you fill us in?

Hmmm, I would put it as like a states' rights issue. Something like 65% of Alaska's land has been locked away by the government, against the people's will. President Carter plowed through our wishes to do it. As recent as this decade, Governor Knowles wanted to build a road in the Tongass Forest, only to be blown off by the Feds. Like there isn't enough land to spare so the state could build a road. Tony Knowles actually sued the President Clinton over the matter. But I believe the biggest reason is ANWR. Drilling there would be extremely beneficial for the state. It keeps getting killed by a bunch of people who think they know what's best for Alaska, even though they don't live here.

Alaska already gets back $1.84 per dollar they send to Washington. That's more than fair. Of course Mrs. Earmarks wants more than that.

Just $1.84? I thought that number would have been higher. Must be cause Young and Stevens have spent so much time fighting off the court lately.

[bgwah]

Ah, so that's why McCain picked Palin. To lock up the electorally-rich swing state of Alaska!