Economist Poll - Bush 46%, Kerry 45%

[mddem2004]

The Economist Magazine's latest Poll:

http://economist.com/media/pdf/YouGovJ.pdf

The sampling size is extremly large, drawn from a "recruited panel" (whatever that means) weighted to reflect VAP -  not party ID if I understand them right.

Don't know magazines politics, or accuracy of methodology -  just saw so I posted......

[The Vorlon]

The Economist Magazine's latest Poll:

http://economist.com/media/pdf/YouGovJ.pdf

Don't know magazines politics, or accuracy of methodology -  just saw so I posted......

This is an internet based poll, kinda similar to Zogby's interactive state polls.

I do think using the internet is a part  of the future of polling.  I just am not sure if the future is now

This result is not insane by any means, and they do seem to be picking up the trends if not the absolute numbers.

Anything internet based by default gets a big question mark beside it TODAY, but I expect 12 years from now Internet polling will be the normal way of doing things.

20 years ago when pollsters started using the telephone instead of doing in-person interviews, the Telephone was considered voodoo too.

[mddem2004]

Yeah....on the polling trends thing....it looks like Gallup, ICR, and now the Economist all have Bush up 1% in Registered Voters, does that equate to an approximate 3% Likely Voter gap?

[The Vorlon]

Yeah....on the polling trends thing....it looks like Gallup, ICR, and now the Economist all have Bush up 1% in Registered Voters, does that equate to an approximate 3% Likely Voter gap?

Historically, the GOP does "about" 3% better in a LV poll than a RV poll.

This 3% differential is absolutely reliable... unless it isn't.

[mddem2004]

Yeah....on the polling trends thing....it looks like Gallup, ICR, and now the Economist all have Bush up 1% in Registered Voters, does that equate to an approximate 3% Likely Voter gap?

Historically, the GOP does "about" 3% better in a LV poll than a RV poll.

This 3% differential is absolutely reliable... unless it isn't.

I Luv your "qualifiers"      Thanks

[The Vorlon]

Yeah....on the polling trends thing....it looks like Gallup, ICR, and now the Economist all have Bush up 1% in Registered Voters, does that equate to an approximate 3% Likely Voter gap?

Historically, the GOP does "about" 3% better in a LV poll than a RV poll.

This 3% differential is absolutely reliable... unless it isn't.

I Luv your "qualifiers"      Thanks

As somebody who has polled for 20 years, I can tell you polling is far, far, far from an exact science.

The whole thing is held together with duct tape, bubblegum and chicken wire.  It is something of a miracle that it works as well as it does.

Running a poll is something like watching a waiter carry a huge tray of 6 dinners through a crowded restaruant on the way to your table.

After the election is over and your poll hits MOE you let out a huge sign of relief, but if the thing blows up massively (like the waiter crashing to the floor with 6 plates) you are less than totally surprised, you actually kinda expect it to happen

It's a crapshoot.  Anybody who tells you otherwise is either telling lies to you or lies to themselves.

[Sibboleth]

YouGov=Utter Bollocks and by far the worst polling firm in the U.K (which is quite a feat...)
Cynics have taken to calling them "AnyThingYouWantGuv?"