Vorlon, any information on whether one of those three nights went to Kerry by quite a bit or not? Thanks.
Bush won the Sept 7th sample by about 3%
The last two samples have been within 1% of tied.
These results are quite skewed however.
A very GOP heavy sample just rolled off, while a strongly DEm sample just rolled on.
In the aftermath of a convention, self identified party ID is quite volitile and polls which hard weight often do some very strange things.
Ignore Rasmussen for about a week till all the party ID froth settles down.
Based upon shifts in his Congressional Ballot (which I am using +/- as a proxy for party ID - the two usually track very closely) I think Rasmussen is likely weighting away maybe 3% of the Bush lead.
If you look at what happened just after the Kerry convention, the same thing happened - Kerry had a brief "blip" then as party ID shifted a bit Dem for a while Rasmussen had the race even again, followed by a Kerry rise as party ID renormalized.
I expect Bush will do the same. Expect +/- parity for about a week, then a slow rise to Bush +4 or so in Bot poll.
(unless I am totally wrong... which is possible