VA: Survey USA: State still in play for both sides

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Virginia President by Survey USA on 2008-09-07

Summary: D: 47%, R: 49%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[KeyKeeper]

RCP have Sen. Obama up by 1-2% on the 7th, so that would make VA in the 3-4% more republican then the Nation.

[Lief 🗽]

Virginia has been within M+2 to O+2 for months now. GOTV and turnout and voter registration is going to decide the state.

[KeyKeeper]

42% of Sen. Obama supporters said they could change their mind before election day.

[Verily]

42% of Sen. Obama supporters said they could change their mind before election day.

No. 42% of those who said they could change their mind (only 12% of the electorate) said they were currently supporting Obama. 39% of those who said they could change their mind said they were supporting McCain. Since this sub-sample has a size of 717*0.12=84, the MoE is enormous and the two numbers identical.

[Tender Branson]

Virginia is clearly a favorable state for Obama. Let`s assume the following:

Whites (72%): Obama 38%
African-Americans (20%): Obama 95%
Others (8%): Obama 60%

Obama wins the state with 51% overall.

[Keystone Phil]

Virginia is clearly a favorable state for Obama. Let`s assume the following:

Whites (72%): Obama 38%
African-Americans (20%): Obama 95%
Others (8%): Obama 60%

Obama wins the state with 51% overall.

"Clearly favorable"  followed up with "Let's assume." Then you tell us he wins with 51%.

Yes, clearly favorable. 

[KeyKeeper]

Virginia is clearly a favorable state for Obama. Let`s assume the following:

Whites (72%): Obama 38%
African-Americans (20%): Obama 95%
Others (8%): Obama 60%

Obama wins the state with 51% overall.

You have AA voters to high.. it will only be around 18%.

[Tender Branson]

Virginia is clearly a favorable state for Obama. Let`s assume the following:

Whites (72%): Obama 38%
African-Americans (20%): Obama 95%
Others (8%): Obama 60%

Obama wins the state with 51% overall.

"Clearly favorable"  followed up with "Let's assume." Then you tell us he wins with 51%.

Yes, clearly favorable. 

What's your problem ? Isn´t it "favorable" if Obama polls 5% higher among Whites than Kerry on Election Day 2004, or 3% compared with this poll in September 2004. To add: Obama will probably do considerably better than Kerry among VA minorities and their share will increase compared with 4 years earlier. I guess there's a good chance 30% will be minority in the exit polls.

[Keystone Phil]

Virginia is clearly a favorable state for Obama. Let`s assume the following:

Whites (72%): Obama 38%
African-Americans (20%): Obama 95%
Others (8%): Obama 60%

Obama wins the state with 51% overall.

"Clearly favorable"  followed up with "Let's assume." Then you tell us he wins with 51%.

Yes, clearly favorable. 

What's your problem ? Isn´t it "favorable" if Obama polls 5% higher among Whites than Kerry on Election Day 2004, or 3% compared with this poll in September 2004. To add: Obama will probably do considerably better than Kerry among VA minorities and their share will increase compared with 4 years earlier. I guess there's a good chance 30% will be minority in the exit polls.

I wouldn't be so sure about Obama doing as well with whites.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Virginia is clearly a favorable state for Obama. Let`s assume the following:

Whites (72%): Obama 38%
African-Americans (20%): Obama 95%
Others (8%): Obama 60%

Obama wins the state with 51% overall.

"Clearly favorable"  followed up with "Let's assume." Then you tell us he wins with 51%.

Yes, clearly favorable. 

What's your problem ? Isn´t it "favorable" if Obama polls 5% higher among Whites than Kerry on Election Day 2004, or 3% compared with this poll in September 2004. To add: Obama will probably do considerably better than Kerry among VA minorities and their share will increase compared with 4 years earlier. I guess there's a good chance 30% will be minority in the exit polls.

I can't speak for Keystone Phil, but my particular problem with your analysis is the idea that Obama will get 95% of the African American vote.  That seems far too optimistic.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Our first real poll from an actual swing state since the convention.

See? The sky is not falling.

[Keystone Phil]

Virginia is clearly a favorable state for Obama. Let`s assume the following:

Whites (72%): Obama 38%
African-Americans (20%): Obama 95%
Others (8%): Obama 60%

Obama wins the state with 51% overall.

"Clearly favorable"  followed up with "Let's assume." Then you tell us he wins with 51%.

Yes, clearly favorable. 

What's your problem ? Isn´t it "favorable" if Obama polls 5% higher among Whites than Kerry on Election Day 2004, or 3% compared with this poll in September 2004. To add: Obama will probably do considerably better than Kerry among VA minorities and their share will increase compared with 4 years earlier. I guess there's a good chance 30% will be minority in the exit polls.

I can't speak for Keystone Phil, but my particular problem with your analysis is the idea that Obama will get 95% of the African American vote.  That seems far too optimistic.

Well, that, too.

[Brittain33]

I can't speak for Keystone Phil, but my particular problem with your analysis is the idea that Obama will get 95% of the African American vote.  That seems far too optimistic.

Why is that too optimistic? Look at how much difficulty the Republicans had in getting African-American delegates this year to the national convention--the numbers were much lower than in elections where Republicans were thrilled to keep the Democratic candidate a hair below 90% on Election Day.

[Tender Branson]

Virginia is clearly a favorable state for Obama. Let`s assume the following:

Whites (72%): Obama 38%
African-Americans (20%): Obama 95%
Others (8%): Obama 60%

Obama wins the state with 51% overall.

"Clearly favorable"  followed up with "Let's assume." Then you tell us he wins with 51%.

Yes, clearly favorable. 

What's your problem ? Isn´t it "favorable" if Obama polls 5% higher among Whites than Kerry on Election Day 2004, or 3% compared with this poll in September 2004. To add: Obama will probably do considerably better than Kerry among VA minorities and their share will increase compared with 4 years earlier. I guess there's a good chance 30% will be minority in the exit polls.

I wouldn't be so sure about Obama doing as well with whites.

The Bradley Effect ? Maybe, we'll see. But the opposite was true in the DEM primary. Clinton led among Whites in the last SurveyUSA poll before the primary, but Obama won by a 5 point margin.

I can't speak for Keystone Phil, but my particular problem with your analysis is the idea that Obama will get 95% of the African American vote.  That seems far too optimistic.

OK. Let's say 90%. He´d still win, barely.

[Stranger in a strange land]

I don't think it's unrealistic that Obama will get 95% of the black vote. Ordinarily, he would get around 90% just for being a Democrat. The fact he's black is likely to drive up black turnout, and almost all of the new black voters should vote for Obama.

[TomC]

I read somewhere that Asian Americans are over 5% of the population and went for Webb with 75%.

[Brittain33]

I read somewhere that Asian Americans are over 5% of the population and went for Webb with 75%.

While this was surely not the only factor, Webb's wife being Asian-American and Allen pretty much telling Asians they don't belong in "the real Virginia" is a hell of a thumb on the scale.

[Tender Branson]

I read somewhere that Asian Americans are over 5% of the population and went for Webb with 75%.

They make up 6% of VA's population and Latinos 7%, but most of them are either young or not citizens. So they'll make up only 8% of the electorate in November (together with Native Americans).

[Flying Dog]

Well, I was being a regular old pessimist and thought Obama may have collapsed here. Good to see he's holding relatively strong.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I can't speak for Keystone Phil, but my particular problem with your analysis is the idea that Obama will get 95% of the African American vote.  That seems far too optimistic.

Why is that too optimistic? Look at how much difficulty the Republicans had in getting African-American delegates this year to the national convention--the numbers were much lower than in elections where Republicans were thrilled to keep the Democratic candidate a hair below 90% on Election Day.

Well, you're suggesting that of those AAs who regularly vote Republican, a full half will jump ship and vote Democratic simply because Obama is black too.  I have never once seen a huge movement like that based on such a simplistic demographic issue.

[jamestroll]

I heard VA will be close this year. Fortunately, my state will vote AGAINST Obama heavily, but not FOR McVain.

VA is just too stupid.. and if they vote for McVain, they are literally voting for him, yuck yuck yuck!

[Brittain33]

Well, you're suggesting that of those AAs who regularly vote Republican, a full half will jump ship and vote Democratic simply because Obama is black too.  I have never once seen a huge movement like that based on such a simplistic demographic issue.

No, that's not strictly true, for a couple of reasons. First, Obama is banking on higher turnout and this is the first time Virginia will have been seriously contested by Democrats in a long time, so that will increase the universe of black voters. Secondly, when we're talking as small a population as the universe of black voters who regularly vote Republican, we are talking small numbers at the margin and a huge MOE. Not to mention that even Colin Powell and Condoleeza Rice have been hedging their support for McCain and Obama in recognition of the historic nature of the ticket. You are going to be down to the hardest of hard-core Republicans among the African-American community voting in a much larger pool of voters energized by Obama's candidacy.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Boy, this'll be a close one.

FTR:  Trend from the last poll is McCain +1%.

[Eraserhead]

I'm amazed that VA hasn't broken toward McCain yet. Maybe we really do have a shot here.