New DailyKos/Research 2000 tracking poll
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Author Topic: New DailyKos/Research 2000 tracking poll  (Read 24896 times)
ChrisFromNJ
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« Reply #25 on: September 13, 2008, 12:51:42 PM »

If DailyKos is showing a tie, McCain is winning.

Just because you wish it to be true doesn't make it so.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #26 on: September 13, 2008, 12:54:55 PM »

If DailyKos is showing a tie, McCain is winning.

Just because you wish it to be true doesn't make it so.

Obviously, because Daily Kos does not have an agenda whatsoever.
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J. J.
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« Reply #27 on: September 13, 2008, 12:55:33 PM »

If DailyKos is showing a tie, McCain is winning.

Just because you wish it to be true doesn't make it so.

Apparently, they over represent Democrats.  So even after that, McCain's tied.
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ChrisFromNJ
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« Reply #28 on: September 13, 2008, 12:56:30 PM »

If DailyKos is showing a tie, McCain is winning.

Just because you wish it to be true doesn't make it so.

Obviously, because Daily Kos does not have an agenda whatsoever.

Daily Kos has an agenda. But Research 2000, whon they contracted to do polling, did not.
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J. J.
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« Reply #29 on: September 13, 2008, 01:04:44 PM »

If DailyKos is showing a tie, McCain is winning.

Just because you wish it to be true doesn't make it so.

Obviously, because Daily Kos does not have an agenda whatsoever.

Daily Kos has an agenda. But Research 2000, whon they contracted to do polling, did not.

Research 2000 over weighted the Democratic sample.
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Rowan
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« Reply #30 on: September 13, 2008, 01:05:30 PM »

If DailyKos is showing a tie, McCain is winning.

Just because you wish it to be true doesn't make it so.

Apparently, they over represent Democrats.  So even after that, McCain's tied.

They have McCain up 7 among independents. If that is true, they HAVE to be oversampling Dems in order to get a tie.

If MAC wins Indies by 7 on election day, he wins comfortably.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #31 on: September 13, 2008, 01:06:52 PM »

Apparently, they over represent Democrats.  So even after that, McCain's tied.

They have McCain up 7 among independents. If that is true, they HAVE to be oversampling Dems in order to get a tie.

If MAC wins Indies by 7 on election day, he wins comfortably.

"Oversampling" and "overrepresenting" are two very different things. Oversampling can mean you're overrepresenting, but it doesn't require it to be so.
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J. J.
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« Reply #32 on: September 13, 2008, 01:12:06 PM »

With any poll, there are tiny methodological differences that might make a difference.  I was referring to this before in comparisons of Gallup to the 'bots.  If we can identify those, compensate for them, we might be able to find the real numbers (with "good" samples).  I'm looking at things to eliminate the "noise."
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Umengus
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« Reply #33 on: September 13, 2008, 05:55:45 PM »

If DailyKos is showing a tie, McCain is winning.

Just because you wish it to be true doesn't make it so.

Obviously, because Daily Kos does not have an agenda whatsoever.

Daily Kos has an agenda. But Research 2000, whon they contracted to do polling, did not.

Research 2000 over weighted the Democratic sample.

R2000 under weighted the Rep sample.

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The Vorlon
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« Reply #34 on: September 13, 2008, 06:43:47 PM »
« Edited: September 13, 2008, 06:52:29 PM by The Vorlon »

Rather than argue about a pollster's bias we could compare what they predicted in 2004 versus what actually happened...?

Methodologically, Del Ali at Y2K models/weights/stratifies his data really heavily - more so than most pollsters.  This is not bad per se, it has both ups and down.  Usually when he is close, he is really close, when he misses, he misses by a lot.. Smiley

BTW - If I missed a Y2K poll from 2004, let me know, I will toss it in this chart....



If you look over their 8 polls in 2004, other than Florida they were actually pretty darn good.

Taken as a whole, on average they pulled about 2% to the Democratic side, which is historically what this firm does - they have a slight democratic bias.

R2K is not a joke firm, they know what they are doing.

Del Ali their principal pollster has a long personal association with the Democrats which optically looks bad teaming up with DailyKos.

I think if DailyKos really wanted credibility they should have hired a firm with deep blue GOP roots - such as Public Opinion Strategies, Ayers HcHenry, or maybe Clearwater Associates.

I would add about 2% to the GOP side with this firm, but that is just an opinion.  Kinda like Strategic Vision, except going the other way... Smiley

My 2 cents worth Smiley

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Rowan
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« Reply #35 on: September 13, 2008, 06:52:50 PM »

At least they are willing to release ALL internals of their tracking poll, unlike the major pollsters.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #36 on: September 13, 2008, 07:07:55 PM »

At least they are willing to release ALL internals of their tracking poll, unlike the major pollsters.

I actually do congratulate DailyKos for what they are doing.

My point however is that given the nature of their site, regardless of whom they select as their pollster there will be charges of bias. 

Picking a firm with a slight democratic bias, and a principle pollster with long ties to the Democratic party does not help this perception.

I still think hiring a firm with GOP roots, or perhaps a joint effort between two firms, one GOP, one Dem, may have been a better solution in terms of public perception.

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Lunar
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« Reply #37 on: September 13, 2008, 07:12:17 PM »

The mainstream media treats Zogby and sometimes Zogby Interactive polls the same as regular polls, so I don't know if it really matters.

Just yesterday I saw Maddow stick in a Zogby poll with Barr getting 11% in New Hampshire along with other polls.
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Sbane
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« Reply #38 on: September 13, 2008, 07:17:18 PM »

The mainstream media treats Zogby and sometimes Zogby Interactive polls the same as regular polls, so I don't know if it really matters.

Just yesterday I saw Maddow stick in a Zogby poll with Barr getting 11% in New Hampshire along with other polls.

To be fair Maddow has very poor knowledge of polls and campaign tactics. She really relied on David Bender to talk about these issues on her radio show. She is much more knowledgeable about real issues though. Of course I would expect someone on her staff to trash the Zogby poll, but maybe they wanted to create a certain perception.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #39 on: September 13, 2008, 07:46:05 PM »

Bump. Not sure why this isn't stickied yet...
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #40 on: September 13, 2008, 08:48:20 PM »
« Edited: September 14, 2008, 12:48:40 AM by The Vorlon »

The mainstream media treats Zogby and sometimes Zogby Interactive polls the same as regular polls, so I don't know if it really matters.

Just yesterday I saw Maddow stick in a Zogby poll with Barr getting 11% in New Hampshire along with other polls.

The tragic things is that bad polls and bad journalism are made for each other. 

If you are a trash news outfit more interested in ratings and revenue that actual information you want polls that bounce around like crazy and show a different candidate in the lead every day. (ie Zogby)

Can you imagine basing a tv segment on  Rasmussen in 2004.....?

"And for the 47th consecutive day Bush is ahead just barely at the edge of the margin of error...
This marks the 87th time in the last 92 days he has been ahead by 2 or 3 points....the other days he had leads of 1 and 4 points respectively..."


Pretty boring...

Better to have California tied, Idaho in play, and a nail biter in Vermont...
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Lunar
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« Reply #41 on: September 13, 2008, 08:53:16 PM »

You mean ALL television journalism when you say "bad journalism," right?

I notice a lot of citing different polls.  Zogby has McCain leading despite Barr getting 11% in New Hampshire but Survey USA has Obama behind 20% in North Carolina.  Analysis follows.

Or, what is more common, citing some sketchy poll taken a couple days before to indicate a huge drop/gain after some legitimate poll shows the race close.
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muon2
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« Reply #42 on: September 13, 2008, 11:19:30 PM »

... and Survey USA is one of the top-ranked pollsters according to 538's performance analysis.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #43 on: September 14, 2008, 12:10:38 AM »
« Edited: September 14, 2008, 12:46:17 AM by The Vorlon »

You mean ALL television journalism when you say "bad journalism," right?

I notice a lot of citing different polls.  Zogby has McCain leading despite Barr getting 11% in New Hampshire but Survey USA has Obama behind 20% in North Carolina.  Analysis follows.

Or, what is more common, citing some sketchy poll taken a couple days before to indicate a huge drop/gain after some legitimate poll shows the race close.

Actually, the fact that Survey USA now and then puts out a real stinker of a poll shows that they are a real and honest firm.  The make the calls, add them up, and put out the results, they don't fudge anything. (unlike a few firms)

SurveyUSA will likely do a few thousand polls if you add up all the house, senate, governor, statehouse, etc races between now and November.  You do that many, and the odd one blows up.

Other than the deep south where they tend to underpoll the GOP a bit (not that it matters, +20 and +30 are for all practical purtposes the same result) their record is pretty decent.
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Lunar
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« Reply #44 on: September 14, 2008, 12:25:23 AM »

Oh, I like Survey USA, they are one of my top five fav pollsters.  I just used them for an example because they are easy to knock and they fit into the "the media is schilly" theme.

You don't have to tell me twice that they can pull a good poll out of their butts!
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #45 on: September 14, 2008, 02:18:45 AM »

At least they are willing to release ALL internals of their tracking poll, unlike the major pollsters.

I actually do congratulate DailyKos for what they are doing.

My point however is that given the nature of their site, regardless of whom they select as their pollster there will be charges of bias. 

Picking a firm with a slight democratic bias, and a principle pollster with long ties to the Democratic party does not help this perception.

Pollsters make a profit on polls.

They probably preferred to let that profit go to a friend of theirs.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #46 on: September 14, 2008, 01:02:29 PM »

Sunday - 14 September, 2008:

Obama - 47% (nc)
McCain - 45% (-2)

Hmm. Obama gets only 35% of Whites and trails by 5 among Independents, while getting 8% less support from DEMs than McCain is getting from Republicans. And he still leads by 2 ?

Their party and race breakdown is certainly crazy ... 35%D, 30%I, 26% R, 9% Others (?)

13% African-American ? 13% Latino ??
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Rowan
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« Reply #47 on: September 14, 2008, 01:18:19 PM »

How convienent that the night a Obama +3 sample rolls off a new one comes on. Couldn't be any bias in there could it?
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pepper11
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« Reply #48 on: September 14, 2008, 02:52:26 PM »

How convienent that the night a Obama +3 sample rolls off a new one comes on. Couldn't be any bias in there could it?


I don't think you can call that bias. But when an Obama + 3 replaces an Obama +3 you would expect there to be no change in the 3 day average.  Instead Obama somehow gained 2 points in the average - a result that would require a + 9 Obama day given the +3 falloff. Sounds like fuzzy math.
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Sbane
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« Reply #49 on: September 14, 2008, 04:29:24 PM »

This poll seems like BS.
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