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Author Topic: New DailyKos/Research 2000 tracking poll  (Read 16162 times)
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jfern
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« on: September 11, 2008, 03:39:08 pm »
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Obama 47
McCain 45
Barr 2
Nader 2


Break-downs by demographics here

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/11/135228/469/887/595077
« Last Edit: September 11, 2008, 03:42:08 pm by ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ »Logged
Sam Spade
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« Reply #1 on: September 11, 2008, 03:48:03 pm »
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Interesting that you can gauge all these polls simply by partisan breakdown and a seven to eight point spread between Dems and GOP gives you a push mostly.
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Umengus
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« Reply #2 on: September 11, 2008, 03:53:01 pm »
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Party ID:

Dem: 36%
IND: 29%
REP: 26%
Oth/Refused: 9%


these explains that...
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brittain33
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« Reply #3 on: September 11, 2008, 03:55:01 pm »
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Bleh. I remember reading polls with wishful thinking in 2004 and don't have the stomach or desire to do it again this year.
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Sbane
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« Reply #4 on: September 11, 2008, 03:55:19 pm »
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They need to switch the independent and republican % around. I doubt democrats have a 10 point party advantage currently.
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ChrisFromNJ
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« Reply #5 on: September 11, 2008, 03:59:54 pm »
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Another tracking poll to add to the list. The breakdowns are especially helpful, although I would have to agree with one of the above posters; the party ID breakdowns are a bit generous to the Democrats.
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TheresNoMoney
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« Reply #6 on: September 11, 2008, 04:14:46 pm »
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Party ID:

Dem: 36%
IND: 29%
REP: 26%
Oth/Refused: 9%


these explains that...


Dems have a 10% or 11% party ID advantage nationally right now, so this is right in line.
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jfern
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« Reply #7 on: September 11, 2008, 04:18:06 pm »
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They need to switch the independent and republican % around. I doubt democrats have a 10 point party advantage currently.

That is odd, but their numbers do seem reasonable. They just gave McCain a 17 point lead in North Carolina.
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Former Moderate
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« Reply #8 on: September 11, 2008, 04:55:22 pm »
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Dems have a 10% or 11% party ID advantage nationally right now, so this is right in line.

Which planet is this?
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The Mikado
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« Reply #9 on: September 11, 2008, 05:27:25 pm »
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I bet a decent slice of that Other/refused is Republicans.
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« Reply #10 on: September 11, 2008, 05:30:23 pm »
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No way there is a 10 point disparity in party ID.  Perhaps there is a 7-9 point margin in the 'generic D vs R ballot for congress' but actual party ID is more like Dem + 4-6.
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« Reply #11 on: September 11, 2008, 05:31:52 pm »
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No way there is a 10 point disparity in party ID.  Perhaps there is a 7-9 point margin in the 'generic D vs R ballot for congress' but actual party ID is more like Dem + 4-6.

I am guessing it is about 7 and will be about 4 or 5 by election day. This will be enough to give Obama a 2 or 3 point victory.
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« Reply #12 on: September 11, 2008, 05:40:54 pm »
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I bet a decent slice of that Other/refused is Republicans.
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« Reply #13 on: September 11, 2008, 05:58:31 pm »
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It's cool to see the demographic breakdown. Smiley
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« Reply #14 on: September 11, 2008, 06:10:31 pm »
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Party ID:

Dem: 36%
IND: 29%
REP: 26%
Oth/Refused: 9%


these explains that...


Dems have a 10% or 11% party ID advantage nationally right now, so this is right in line.

They did. Not too sure about it now. This is from gallup:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110215/GOP-Increase-Party-After-Convention-Unusual.aspx

Seemingly, cut the Democratic advantage in half. Perhaps former Republicans are coming home now that McCain is "leading" the party. Either that or Saintly Sarah has 'em swooning

Dave
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« Reply #15 on: September 11, 2008, 06:12:54 pm »
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Dave Hawk, what is your opinion of sarah palin?
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« Reply #16 on: September 11, 2008, 06:25:38 pm »
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Dave Hawk, what is your opinion of sarah palin?

My opinion? Well, she's the Republican presidential nominee ... vice-presidential nominee rather, who thinks she is above scrutiny and beyond repproach, well, because she's a woman

Dave
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Rowan
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« Reply #17 on: September 11, 2008, 07:21:18 pm »
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Are we going to sticky this tracking poll too?

And what about the IA tracking poll?
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« Reply #18 on: September 11, 2008, 07:34:34 pm »
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Dems have a 10% or 11% party ID advantage nationally right now, so this is right in line.

Which planet is this?

Rasmussen-world, although that was pre-conventions.

If we're stickying Diageo, we should sticky this one.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #19 on: September 11, 2008, 09:19:09 pm »
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Dems have a 10% or 11% party ID advantage nationally right now, so this is right in line.


Actually, in the 15,000 interviews conducted by Rasmussen in August 2008, the partisan ID gap had shrunk to 5.7%

The 10% or so gaps showing in the summer were in some ways artificial and a consequence of the historic and dramatic Obama/Clinton primary battle.

Interestingly, Rasmussen has noted in his data so far in September that the partisan gap has shrunk substantially again in September (possibly as the result of the Palin pick)

I do not believe that your statement about a 10% democratic advantage in partisan ID is supported by current polling.

Summary of Party Affiliation
September 1, 2008         
 Republican Democrat Other R - D Quarterly 
2008   
Aug 33.2% 38.9% 28.0% -5.7%   
Jul 31.6% 39.2% 29.2% -7.6%     
Jun 31.5% 41.0% 27.5% -9.5% -9.9%   
May 31.6% 41.7% 26.6% -10.1%     
Apr 31.4% 41.4% 27.2% -10.0%   
Mar 32.1% 41.1% 26.8% -9.1% -8.1% 
Feb 31.8% 41.5% 26.7%
« Last Edit: September 12, 2008, 12:49:46 am by The Vorlon »Logged

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« Reply #20 on: September 12, 2008, 01:10:25 pm »
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Friday - 12 September, 2008:

Obama - 47% (nc)
McCain - 46% (+1)

To a Moderator: Sticky it please.

To JFern: Remove "New" from the heading please.
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« Reply #21 on: September 12, 2008, 01:55:31 pm »
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Noticed their slightly oddish regional definitions (OK, TX and CO in the Midwest? Huh?), calculated 2004 results by these regions:

Northeast Kerry 55.5 Bush 43.4
South        Bush 55.9 Kerry 43.3
Midwest    Bush 53.2 Kerry 46.0
West         Kerry 50.1 Bush 48.5

Compared to their polling (and I do note this is at the Obaman end of current polling) of
Northeast Obama 55 McCain 37
South        McCain 54 Obama 38
Midwest    Obama 50 McCain 43
West         Obama 48 McCain 44

Just for jokes' sake, applying an intra-regional uniform swing would cause Ohio, Iowa, Missouri, Colorado, and New Mexico (but not Nevada. Just barely not.) to flip.

Hm. Probably just too few Texans in that Midwest sample.
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« Reply #22 on: September 13, 2008, 12:25:56 pm »
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Saturday - 13 September, 2008:

McCain - 47% (+1)
Obama - 47% (nc)
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J. J.
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« Reply #23 on: September 13, 2008, 12:48:16 pm »
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If DailyKos is showing a tie, McCain is winning.
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« Reply #24 on: September 13, 2008, 12:50:27 pm »
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If DailyKos is showing a tie, McCain is winning.

Especially coming from that joke source.
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