West Virginia, 1988

[JSojourner]

Hey all -- I might have asked this before but take pity on an old man.

Michael Dukakis may be the most inept campaigner in my lifetime.  (I don't count McGovern, because we really don't know what he might have done had the Eagleton thing not blown up. Not that he would have won but...)

So refresh my memory.  How did Dukakis win West Virginia and lose Vermont?  I know H.W. Bush was heir to Reagan and a more moderate heir at that.  But still...

[Hash]

Vermont was a Republican stronghold for most of the 20th century, IIRC.

[Beet]

Vermont is the inverse of South Carolina?

1964 is the first time it ever voted Democratic in state history.

[phk]

I think WV threw out a corrupt GOP governor at the same time.

Vermont didn't trend to the left till the 1990s anyway.

[Mr.Phips]

I think WV threw out a corrupt GOP governor at the same time.

Vermont didn't trend to the left till the 1990s anyway.

It actually started trending to the left right around 1988.  Dukakis nearly won Vermont and I believe was leading in most polls there up until the election.

[phk]

I think WV threw out a corrupt GOP governor at the same time.

Vermont didn't trend to the left till the 1990s anyway.

It actually started trending to the left right around 1988.  Dukakis nearly won Vermont and I believe was leading in most polls there up until the election.

MMhm. Looks like the leftward trend started after 1984 and before 1988.

It likely would have ended up in Dukakis's column in a 50-50 race.

[phk]

This is what a real close Dukakis win would have looked like. Assuming 50-50 pV margin.

[Mr.Phips]

This is what a real close Dukakis win would have looked like. Assuming 50-50 pV margin.

Yep, pretty much.  He was also leading in Ohio and Colorado before the Republican Convention. 

[Barack Hussian YO MAMA!!!!]

I think WV threw out a corrupt GOP governor at the same time.

Vermont didn't trend to the left till the 1990s anyway.

It actually started trending to the left right around 1988.  Dukakis nearly won Vermont and I believe was leading in most polls there up until the election.

MMhm. Looks like the leftward trend started after 1984 and before 1988.

It likely would have ended up in Dukakis's column in a 50-50 race.

I think thats true but you also have to remember that vermont is an old school new england republican state  they where used to more moderate Republicans like Abraham lincon  ,Ike Eisnhower and  Jerry Ford vermont started to trend more to the left but the republican party started to trend more toward the right starting with Goldwater then Reagan and finally George W Bush. George Bush's father fits the profile more of an old school moderate republican.

west virgina was then and is still a socially conservative , economically liberal  state they will vote overwelmingly for mccain because they don't see obama as American enough of course it would also  help if obama put a little money in the state.

cultural reasons as much as anything decide who people are going to vote for if in West Virgina they see you as a liberal elitist or don't think your patriotic enough they will not vote for you regardless of how they feel about the issues.

If you an old school moderate new england republican and you see the candidate of the GOP as a right wing cook they are not going to vote for you, regardless of the fact they might agree with you on some economic matters.

politics is as much about Identity as anything else.

[defe07]

I believe that Dukakis won WV because of his stance on agricultural subsidies, something that apparently fared well with the middle of the country (people say this was the reason he won Iowa as well).

[they don't love you like i love you]

Hey all -- I might have asked this before but take pity on an old man.

Michael Dukakis may be the most inept campaigner in my lifetime.  (I don't count McGovern, because we really don't know what he might have done had the Eagleton thing not blown up. Not that he would have won but...)

So refresh my memory.  How did Dukakis win West Virginia and lose Vermont?  I know H.W. Bush was heir to Reagan and a more moderate heir at that.  But still...

Things were a little different in 1988 than today.

[Meeker]

Hey all -- I might have asked this before but take pity on an old man.

Michael Dukakis may be the most inept campaigner in my lifetime.  (I don't count McGovern, because we really don't know what he might have done had the Eagleton thing not blown up. Not that he would have won but...)

So refresh my memory.  How did Dukakis win West Virginia and lose Vermont?  I know H.W. Bush was heir to Reagan and a more moderate heir at that.  But still...

Things were a little different in 1988 than today.

That's nearly the exact wording of what I was going to write.

West Virginia used to be very Democratic on the Presidential level, largely for economic reasons (even with a Northern elitist like Dukakis at the helm). Vermont was the first state to have its moderate, New England Republicans begin to die out, but that didn't start happening en masse until the Clinton years.

Basically it's not that weird of a result by 1988 standards. By 2008 standards sure. But 1988 wasn't 2008.

And an additional note: West Virginia is still a very Democratic state. Their only notable Republican office holders are one Congresswoman (whose campaign isn't going terribly well) and the Secretary of State (who's retiring). The Democrats also have massive majorities in the State Legislature. You get the right kind of Democrat in there again (H. Clinton or Warner) and they can probably win it again.

[phk]

I believe that Dukakis won WV because of his stance on agricultural subsidies, something that apparently fared well with the middle of the country (people say this was the reason he won Iowa as well).

WV was throwing out a corrupt GOP governor at the time. I think if this wasn't going on than Bush would have likely eked out a win.

[Gustaf]

Let's push this further: when did West Virginia become so Democratic and why?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Let's push this further: when did West Virginia become so Democratic and why?

1. Early 1930's.
2. The great UMW organising drive, coupled with the association of the Democrats as the Workers Party (the two things fed of each other). I mean, other things as well obviously, but that's why it stayed the way it did.