Polling this week

[Brittain33]

As McCain's bounce filters down to the states, is it accurate to say we're seeing:

1) Strong Bush 2004 states going from potentially contested to off the table, or from off the table to even further off the table (Oklahoma, Utah, Mississippi, Georgia, Idaho, North and South Dakota; exception: North Carolina, which has bizarre polling, none of which favors Obama particularly)
2) States that were for Kerry last time, looking strong Obama, now looking like lean Obama only (Washington, NJ, Minnesota)
3) Swing states doing a whole lot of nothing, or moving much less toward McCain than the safe Bush '04 states (Ohio, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida, Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia)

It would be comforting to me to see the McCain have a huge bounce only in categories 1 and 2 while not seeing much of anything in category 3. That is what appears to be happening. Let's break this down.

1) can be explained by the fundie Republican base coming home over Palin. In fact, this is one batch of states that saw the biggest shift to Bush from 2000 to 2004, for much of the same reasons.
2) can be disconnected Republicans shifting from "going with the flow" to going back to their party, but there still aren't enough Republicans and Republican-favoring independents to get them over 50%.
3) is people in states which have been getting a lot of attention from the candidates and their campaigns, so they were saturated enough with news that sudden events would have less of a shift. A lot of their Republicans were already voting, people who wouldn't know enough about Obama in other states have seen him or heard about him enough to make up their minds, etc.

What do you think?

[Brittain33]

As McCain's bounce filters down to the states, is it accurate to say we're seeing:
In fact, this is one batch of states that saw the biggest shift to Bush from 2000 to 2004, for much of the same reasons.

To clarify: there was a big shift 2000-2004 in places like Alabama, Oklahoma, and Utah, and another one for very different reasons in the New York metro area.

[Sam Spade]

I agree with you, generally.  

But there is movement occuring in *some* swing states, just not in others.  Same thing as the states outside swing states, *some* states are moving a lot, others I doubt will move any.  

The key question is:  What gets us from shifting the race from Obama +1-2 (or maybe 3), as it was pre-DNC, to McCain +1-2 (or maybe 3), as it is now.  I've actually been working on that.

[Sam Spade]

As McCain's bounce filters down to the states, is it accurate to say we're seeing:
In fact, this is one batch of states that saw the biggest shift to Bush from 2000 to 2004, for much of the same reasons.

To clarify: there was a big shift 2000-2004 in places like Alabama, Oklahoma, and Utah, and another one for very different reasons in the New York metro area.

What is kinda interesting about the NYC metro area is that at least pre-DNC, the 2004 shift appeared to be staying in place (with slight movement against him in NYC and slight movement towards him in the suburbs).  Of course, McCain is obviously a better candidate than Bush for this area.  We'll see if that continues.