Will the Democrats lead in the house slowly erode over the next 4 1/2 years?

[go85bucks10]

I noticed a poll (forgot which one) came out recently stating that when a sample population was asked what party they would rather see control congress, the results were Democrats 48%, Republicans 45%, and 7% undecided.

A Gallup poll asking the same question that came out earlier this month said Republicans 50% to Democrats 45%.

Predictions are still that Dems are going to pick up seats none the less. But if the bad public perception of congress doesn't change while they control it now and on through the next presidential term, will they loose power in 2012 (or later, or even possibly earlier?)

[go85bucks10]

There are many issues that have to be contemplated and do hinge a lot on who wins the presidential election. If Barack wins, it could allow congress to get more things done and boost its ratings (also if Barack is perceived to be a good president it will also help congress since they would most likely work with each other).

If McCain wins and fights the democratic congress and presents himself as "a reformer that cleans up Washington" by reducing pork and whatnot, then the democrats could have some problems. If McCain does win and looks like a maverick that successfully steers the republican party more towards a Reagan/90's conservative movement looking party rather than a Bush/2000's "yes man" huge spending corrupt party, then again, the democrats could have some problems.


How will this play out?

[© tweed]

hard to imagine the Dems losing seats in 2008 when you look at the individual races.  the generic ballot isn't a great predictor of that.  beyond this cycle, who knows.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     The Democrats will have to look out in 2010.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

After redistricting we'll have a chance to fix some of those GOP gerrymanders and maybe add a few of our own.

[Dan the Roman]

     The Democrats will have to look out in 2010.

More likely if Obama is in office than McCain. I can't imagine either of them having a good two years, though least of all McCain given that his domestic agenda is nonexistent except for tax cuts that if passed will trigger an economic collapse.

[JSojourner]

I expect us to pick up a number of seats in 2008 and 2010.  But 2012, I look for our gains to be curtailed.

[Verily]

After redistricting we'll have a chance to fix some of those GOP gerrymanders and maybe add a few of our own.

This is certainly true. 2010 depends entirely on who is President, but 2012 will likely be a good year for the Democrats simply because they'll control more redistricting than they did before the 2002 elections. (Not that some states aren't gerrymandered to favor the Democrats, cough, Maryland, cough, but more are drawn to favor the Republicans.)

States like Ohio and Virginia will see much more equal maps, and the Democrats may really carve up Pennsylvania and Illinois in their favor. (New York, too, but that will mostly just be trying to make sure both seats lost are Republican ones, although after the 2008 elections the Democrats may control so many NY seats that even that will be impossible.)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The 2010 elections in the state legislatures will be very interesting.

[Sam Spade]

Lot depends on who the next President is.  If it's Obama - whether they swerve too far to the left.  For McCain, it depends more on whether McCain or the Democrats engage in too much partisanship.

[Mr.Phips]

It depends.  If McCain is elected, Democrats edge in the House will likely grow and these seats, especially ones like CA-11, PA-04, PA-10, NY-20, and if they pick up seats in Michigan, are likely to be made much safer for them in redistricting. 

[TheresNoMoney]

Probably. I think the Democrats gain another 10-15 seats in 2008, and then will see slight losses over the next few elections.